Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What the numbers prove is, unless you are at the TOP of TJ, it will not help you in college admissions. Sure, the top 50% get into UVA, but, the top 50% would certainly be in the top 10% of the base school which also gets into UVA.

UVA isn’t the only great school in the world. Or even VA. It will always have a soft TJ quota. And a soft McLean quota. And a soft noVA quota. Hopefully Ead means kids who really want it but are slightly lower ranked get a look.

But, there are other great schools out there. Is a T10 Engineering school a bad college outcome? Chicago? Williams? NYU? Grinnell? Tufts? A UC? CWRU? Pitt with a ton of merit? I’m not seeing a lot of weak links in this list.

Anonymous wrote:What the numbers prove is, unless you are at the TOP of TJ, it will not help you in college admissions. Sure, the top 50% get into UVA, but, the top 50% would certainly be in the top 10% of the base school which also gets into UVA.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Because you asked and Naviance 2019 loaded:

Don’t flame if my math is wrong somewhere. I did it on the back of a sheet of paper.

In state applied/ accepted/ attending:
UVA: 333/152/53. (48% admit rate and In line with prior years)
WM: 189/153/40 (80% admit rate and in line with prior years)
VT: 99/71/21 (the huge surprise. Normally 200-250 kids apply. But only low 20s attend each year. So their attend number stayed stable).

Also:

GMU 17
VCU. 9 (their guaranteed admit med school program is popular at TJ)

So: 114 to UVA/WM/VT and 142 in state (although I didn’t pull every state school, no one to CNU)

Pitt: 116/113/25. Making it the 3rd most popular school and this the first year more kids applied to Pitt than VT and more kids attend Pitt than VT. They give amazing merit aid to TJ kids, the counselors love them, and rolling admissions).

39 to Ivys:
Cornell topping the list at 15 (it’s always high, b/c engineering)
8 to Harvard
5 to Yale
4 to Princeton
2 to Columbia
1 to Dartmouth
0 to Brown

29 to Almost Ivy’s:
8 to MIT
1 to Cal Tech
12 to Chicago, out of 15 accepted (!!!— that’s a huge number for a non-engineering/CS school)
4 each to Stanford and Duke


75 to the T10 Engineering schools not already listed:
17 to Michigan
6 to GT
10 to Berkeley
15 to CMU
13 to UI-CU
10 to Purdue
4 to UT Austin

14 total to the other T20 National Us not already listed put together, with 1-2 per school, except 3 to UCLA and 4 to WashU

2 to Williams. I didn’t pullall of the top SLACs, but kids were admitted to, but are not attending Amherst, Swarthmore, and Davidson.

Other places I spot checked b/c I know kids going: Grinnell (1), Kenyon (1), CWRU (3), Ohio State (2), Penn State (6)

So that’s 339 of the 425. The rest are likely to be 1-2 students each to T50 schools, a few SLACs, and T10-T20 engineering. Probably at least 10-12 at other UCs combined, although I didn’t pull each one.

Make of it what you will. I’m shocked that VT went from 243 apps in 2018 to 99 in 2019. And had fewer students enroll than Pitt for the first time. And had fewer students apply than Pitt, Michigan or GT. Especially in a year when VT overenrolled. What I’m hearing (based on a sample size of about 4) is that kids aren’t filling out the Coalition app and writing the extra essays unless they really want VT. They are using Pitt as their safety instead.

Anyway, looks like a great year to me. But, have at it.

The Naviance seems kind of unbelievable. Only 99 applying to VT? That would be a HUGE change from prior years for one year. I wonder if there is a data issue.

You also say UVA admit rate is in line with prior years, but that is a significantly lower rate than prior years. It used to be quite high if you looked at the PDF the school produces. I wonder if this is a reflection of increased UVA selectivity, or a change in their admit strategy for TJ (or both). The other data point is the number going to UVA and VT are down considerably in 2019.

Many TJ kids practically "beg" the top 15% kids not to apply to UVA because vast majority of them will very likely just end up getting accepted and not matriculating at UVA. Other TJ kids actually frown upon top 10% kids applying to UVA thinking they just take the limited (possibly quota) admission slots. My TJ kid decided not to apply to UVA since he knew he was probably not going to attend UVA.

Anonymous wrote:^^. plus, you now have 90% of the list. Of the remainder, a few kids always end up at quirky places, like Music conservatories, SCAD or Parsons, St, Johns or Reed. A few will be scattered throughout SLACs, and it’s just a lot of effort to pull 30-40 of them off Naviance to get 6 kids. Some always end up in Canada, Asia and/or Europe. A few will be at other big state Us.

But what other school could possibly pull off a list like this? Then add in almost no hooks for legacy, athletics, or URM. You may love to hate TJ. But the kids worked hard for great results. Which is something we are all supposed to support.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I would have to agree that I believe college will be very easy after what my DC has done at TJ. The expectations on their work, the rigor, the time management really are hard for anyone to believe unless your DC has attended.

I do think that it is much harder for the superior stem kids to stand out at TJ because there are just so many amazing kids.

But when looking at the college list what's really the most impressive to me is what colleges are not on the list. Every school on there is a good school. Even the kids toward the bottom of the class are going to great colleges. No random colleges or community colleges I've never heard of.

Like every other HS, the vast majority go to match schools, the very top go to reach schools.

TJ has the best college acceptances and merit based scholarships of all the public high schools in the country.

Source?

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I would have to agree that I believe college will be very easy after what my DC has done at TJ. The expectations on their work, the rigor, the time management really are hard for anyone to believe unless your DC has attended.

I do think that it is much harder for the superior stem kids to stand out at TJ because there are just so many amazing kids.

But when looking at the college list what's really the most impressive to me is what colleges are not on the list. Every school on there is a good school. Even the kids toward the bottom of the class are going to great colleges. No random colleges or community colleges I've never heard of.

Like every other HS, the vast majority go to match schools, the very top go to reach schools.

TJ has the best college acceptances and merit based scholarships of all the public high schools in the country.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Don't have to be the brightest, but don't be like the rest.

I disagree (and I know quite a few TJ grads).

They don't have to do a song and dance and pretend extracurriculars and all that BS that people think makes a good college application once they are in college.
All they have to do is ace their classes, ace their interviews and interships in their area of STEM specialty, and they're set to be hired at Tier 1 companies. The ones I know were able to do that.

The "well-rounded" BS really ends with high school, and good riddance.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Because you asked and Naviance 2019 loaded:

Don’t flame if my math is wrong somewhere. I did it on the back of a sheet of paper.

In state applied/ accepted/ attending:
UVA: 333/152/53. (48% admit rate and In line with prior years)
WM: 189/153/40 (80% admit rate and in line with prior years)
VT: 99/71/21 (the huge surprise. Normally 200-250 kids apply. But only low 20s attend each year. So their attend number stayed stable).

Also:

GMU 17
VCU. 9 (their guaranteed admit med school program is popular at TJ)

So: 114 to UVA/WM/VT and 142 in state (although I didn’t pull every state school, no one to CNU)

Pitt: 116/113/25. Making it the 3rd most popular school and this the first year more kids applied to Pitt than VT and more kids attend Pitt than VT. They give amazing merit aid to TJ kids, the counselors love them, and rolling admissions).

39 to Ivys:
Cornell topping the list at 15 (it’s always high, b/c engineering)
8 to Harvard
5 to Yale
4 to Princeton
2 to Columbia
1 to Dartmouth
0 to Brown

29 to Almost Ivy’s:
8 to MIT
1 to Cal Tech
12 to Chicago, out of 15 accepted (!!!— that’s a huge number for a non-engineering/CS school)
4 each to Stanford and Duke


75 to the T10 Engineering schools not already listed:
17 to Michigan
6 to GT
10 to Berkeley
15 to CMU
13 to UI-CU
10 to Purdue
4 to UT Austin

14 total to the other T20 National Us not already listed put together, with 1-2 per school, except 3 to UCLA and 4 to WashU

2 to Williams. I didn’t pullall of the top SLACs, but kids were admitted to, but are not attending Amherst, Swarthmore, and Davidson.

Other places I spot checked b/c I know kids going: Grinnell (1), Kenyon (1), CWRU (3), Ohio State (2), Penn State (6)

So that’s 339 of the 425. The rest are likely to be 1-2 students each to T50 schools, a few SLACs, and T10-T20 engineering. Probably at least 10-12 at other UCs combined, although I didn’t pull each one.

Make of it what you will. I’m shocked that VT went from 243 apps in 2018 to 99 in 2019. And had fewer students enroll than Pitt for the first time. And had fewer students apply than Pitt, Michigan or GT. Especially in a year when VT overenrolled. What I’m hearing (based on a sample size of about 4) is that kids aren’t filling out the Coalition app and writing the extra essays unless they really want VT. They are using Pitt as their safety instead.

Anyway, looks like a great year to me. But, have at it.

The Naviance seems kind of unbelievable. Only 99 applying to VT? That would be a HUGE change from prior years for one year. I wonder if there is a data issue.

You also say UVA admit rate is in line with prior years, but that is a significantly lower rate than prior years. It used to be quite high if you looked at the PDF the school produces. I wonder if this is a reflection of increased UVA selectivity, or a change in their admit strategy for TJ (or both). The other data point is the number going to UVA and VT are down considerably in 2019.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Because you asked and Naviance 2019 loaded:

Don’t flame if my math is wrong somewhere. I did it on the back of a sheet of paper.

In state applied/ accepted/ attending:
UVA: 333/152/53. (48% admit rate and In line with prior years)
WM: 189/153/40 (80% admit rate and in line with prior years)
VT: 99/71/21 (the huge surprise. Normally 200-250 kids apply. But only low 20s attend each year. So their attend number stayed stable).

Also:

GMU 17
VCU. 9 (their guaranteed admit med school program is popular at TJ)

So: 114 to UVA/WM/VT and 142 in state (although I didn’t pull every state school, no one to CNU)

Pitt: 116/113/25. Making it the 3rd most popular school and this the first year more kids applied to Pitt than VT and more kids attend Pitt than VT. They give amazing merit aid to TJ kids, the counselors love them, and rolling admissions).

39 to Ivys:
Cornell topping the list at 15 (it’s always high, b/c engineering)
8 to Harvard
5 to Yale
4 to Princeton
2 to Columbia
1 to Dartmouth
0 to Brown

29 to Almost Ivy’s:
8 to MIT
1 to Cal Tech
12 to Chicago, out of 15 accepted (!!!— that’s a huge number for a non-engineering/CS school)
4 each to Stanford and Duke


75 to the T10 Engineering schools not already listed:
17 to Michigan
6 to GT
10 to Berkeley
15 to CMU
13 to UI-CU
10 to Purdue
4 to UT Austin

14 total to the other T20 National Us not already listed put together, with 1-2 per school, except 3 to UCLA and 4 to WashU

2 to Williams. I didn’t pullall of the top SLACs, but kids were admitted to, but are not attending Amherst, Swarthmore, and Davidson.

Other places I spot checked b/c I know kids going: Grinnell (1), Kenyon (1), CWRU (3), Ohio State (2), Penn State (6)

So that’s 339 of the 425. The rest are likely to be 1-2 students each to T50 schools, a few SLACs, and T10-T20 engineering. Probably at least 10-12 at other UCs combined, although I didn’t pull each one.

Make of it what you will. I’m shocked that VT went from 243 apps in 2018 to 99 in 2019. And had fewer students enroll than Pitt for the first time. And had fewer students apply than Pitt, Michigan or GT. Especially in a year when VT overenrolled. What I’m hearing (based on a sample size of about 4) is that kids aren’t filling out the Coalition app and writing the extra essays unless they really want VT. They are using Pitt as their safety instead.

Anyway, looks like a great year to me. But, have at it.

,

The acceptance rate to UVA has historically been over 60%. The below 50% is a shocker.

Not quite. 56% when rounded to the nearest whole number in 2017 and 2018. But they had fewer kids apply this year (333 vs 349 in 2018) and many fewer kids accept (53 vs 83).

Meanwhile, WM had lower applications in 2018 (168) and fewer kids accept (27), but the 2019 numbers are almost identical to the 2017. It’s hard to see a trend with only 3 years of the data broken down in Naviance and sometimes classes have strong or off years with certain schools. But going from 243 to less than 100 applications for VT says something.

It will be very interesting to see what happens when WM goes to ED this year. And I am very thankful my kid wants WM and not VT (overenrolled) or UVA (a huge gamble the first year of ED).

The Bull Moose seems to have an increase in W&M attendees for 2019. Someone said VT has consistently been in the 20s, but Bull Moose has 38, 35, 42, 38, 16 (2019) for trend for last few years.

I would trust Naviance over Bull Moose. They only have breakdowns back to 2017. VT is 44 (2017), 22 (2018), 21 (2019) enrolled. Realize Bull Moose is self report. And VT is a safety. Some kids will think they are attending in May, and then get off the WL somewhere else.

WM 2017 to 2019 is 37, 27, 40 enrolled.

Anonymous wrote:Doing the Coalition App is a PITA, and more essays. And VT may be the only TJ competitive school that requires coalition. TJ itself isn’t set up for Coalition— transcripts and red letters go automatically to common, and it’s more steps to do Coalition manually. So, kids have moved to Pitt as their engineering safety. Everyone gets in. Everyone gets enough merit aid to make it cost less than VT. And lots of kids like the more urban campus. Remember that most kids don’t actually plan to attend their safety school. They apply to Pitt. They are are thinking Michigan.

I have a rising senior. He would be applying to VT as a safety, but doesn’t want to deal with the Coalition. He has several friends applying for engineering. The only one who is applying VT is the one whose first choice is VT. She is applying ED and hoping to only have to use the Coalition.
[snip]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Because you asked and Naviance 2019 loaded:

Don’t flame if my math is wrong somewhere. I did it on the back of a sheet of paper.

In state applied/ accepted/ attending:
UVA: 333/152/53. (48% admit rate and In line with prior years)
WM: 189/153/40 (80% admit rate and in line with prior years)
VT: 99/71/21 (the huge surprise. Normally 200-250 kids apply. But only low 20s attend each year. So their attend number stayed stable).

Also:

GMU 17
VCU. 9 (their guaranteed admit med school program is popular at TJ)

So: 114 to UVA/WM/VT and 142 in state (although I didn’t pull every state school, no one to CNU)

Pitt: 116/113/25. Making it the 3rd most popular school and this the first year more kids applied to Pitt than VT and more kids attend Pitt than VT. They give amazing merit aid to TJ kids, the counselors love them, and rolling admissions).

39 to Ivys:
Cornell topping the list at 15 (it’s always high, b/c engineering)
8 to Harvard
5 to Yale
4 to Princeton
2 to Columbia
1 to Dartmouth
0 to Brown

29 to Almost Ivy’s:
8 to MIT
1 to Cal Tech
12 to Chicago, out of 15 accepted (!!!— that’s a huge number for a non-engineering/CS school)
4 each to Stanford and Duke


75 to the T10 Engineering schools not already listed:
17 to Michigan
6 to GT
10 to Berkeley
15 to CMU
13 to UI-CU
10 to Purdue
4 to UT Austin

14 total to the other T20 National Us not already listed put together, with 1-2 per school, except 3 to UCLA and 4 to WashU

2 to Williams. I didn’t pullall of the top SLACs, but kids were admitted to, but are not attending Amherst, Swarthmore, and Davidson.

Other places I spot checked b/c I know kids going: Grinnell (1), Kenyon (1), CWRU (3), Ohio State (2), Penn State (6)

So that’s 339 of the 425. The rest are likely to be 1-2 students each to T50 schools, a few SLACs, and T10-T20 engineering. Probably at least 10-12 at other UCs combined, although I didn’t pull each one.

Make of it what you will. I’m shocked that VT went from 243 apps in 2018 to 99 in 2019. And had fewer students enroll than Pitt for the first time. And had fewer students apply than Pitt, Michigan or GT. Especially in a year when VT overenrolled. What I’m hearing (based on a sample size of about 4) is that kids aren’t filling out the Coalition app and writing the extra essays unless they really want VT. They are using Pitt as their safety instead.

Anyway, looks like a great year to me. But, have at it.

The Naviance seems kind of unbelievable. Only 99 applying to VT? That would be a HUGE change from prior years for one year. I wonder if there is a data issue.

You also say UVA admit rate is in line with prior years, but that is a significantly lower rate than prior years. It used to be quite high if you looked at the PDF the school produces. I wonder if this is a reflection of increased UVA selectivity, or a change in their admit strategy for TJ (or both). The other data point is the number going to UVA and VT are down considerably in 2019.

The same number of kids are going to VT— it’s been low 20s the last several years. The difference is number of kids applying. Doing the Coalition App is a PITA, and more essays. And VT may be the only TJ competitive school that requires coalition. TJ itself isn’t set up for Coalition— transcripts and red letters go automatically to common, and it’s more steps to do Coalition manually. So, kids have moved to Pitt as their engineering safety. Everyone gets in. Everyone gets enough merit aid to make it cost less than VT. And lots of kids like the more urban campus. Remember that most kids don’t actually plan to attend their safety school. They apply to Pitt. They are are thinking Michigan.

I have a rising senior. He would be applying to VT as a safety, but doesn’t want to deal with the Coalition. He has several friends applying for engineering. The only one who is applying VT is the one whose first choice is VT. She is applying ED and hoping to only have to use the Coalition.

I’m actually around TJ upperclassmen, and talked to my kids counselor about admissions/ college right before school ended in June. I don’t think it’s a data error. I think it’s high demand for TJ kids by other engineering schools and a desire to avoid the Coalition app. And Pitt has been aggressively buying talent for the last 5 years at least, so they can say they have more TJ kids than any other engineering school. It’s smart.

As for UVA. Colleges have good and bad years. 2018 was weak for WM and it rebounded. You need more than one years worth of data. But ED is going to cause a reset anyway.