Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Emerson poll has Trump +10 in Iowa. But feel free to cling to whatever poll makes you happier.

Yes but Selzer is THE Iowa pollster. Emerson polls nationally and is parachuting in.

I'm really struggling with this because the gulf is so wide, but I trust Selzer on Iowa over anyone else.

Her result is still within a standard margin of error, making them effectively tied. But if true, that is a huge swing. Iowa should not be in play if Trump is winning.

Also I'm still reviewing details of the poll but the most interesting result: it has women 65+ voting Harris 2-1. That's a huge deal because that's a very reliable voting bloc-- older people vote at high rates and older women vote more reliably than men.

Yes. Older women are super super pissed. They don’t want people messing around with reproductive rights and they remember pre-roe and many have a lot of sad stories. Not so much back alley abortions, but misguided marriages and lost career opportunities.

Plus they don’t want the gop cratering social security and Medicare. The media has not given this much attention, but it has been a consistent plot line from the gop to get rid of those entitlements and older women are sensitive about the issue.

Some other analysis I've seen mentions that while young voters may have no memory of Trump's "grab 'em by the pussy," older women do remember. They are also more likely to accurately remember that Trump's economy was inherited from Obama and how badly Trump screwed up Covid response, stuff that many voters appear to have randomly forgotten or never knew. But it all undercuts Trump's argument to voters that they were "better off" when he was president.

That’s interesting because my oldest kid and their classmates have hated Trump since 2016. They are all 18-20 now.

They remember so I assumed all young voters were up on this.

I think Harris is going to win, but you'd be surprised how many 18-22 year olds are voting for Trump. Progressives have lost the plot with that generation. Someone not Trump would totally win that generation

I don't see the progressives as the issue, it's the young men. Many, too many, young men living in the online/podcast misogynistic broasphere.

This poll is garbage. The New York Times released their final polls showing very close races in the battleground states. If this Iowa poll were true, Harris would lead by a landslide in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. She doesn’t, according to any reputable pollster.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/03/us/politics/harris-trump-times-siena-poll.html

Nate Cohn also said far more white Democrats responded to the survey than white Republicans. That’s the problem with these polls, liberals and Trump haters are the ones who are likely to respond. Trump supporters just go to the polls to vote whereas liberals and Trump haters cry from every rooftop how much they hate him.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don’t think she’s going to win Iowa but the people automatically discounting this don’t know anything about polls. Selzer is worshipped by the people who do. Keep in mind - go back a few pages - this makes sense when Trump is only up in Kansas by 5, Harris is up by 12 in the 2nd congressional district and down by only 4 in the 1st, and a Miami University poll of Ohio has him up there by only 3.

+1. Sitting here in Kansas absolutely surrounded by Harris signs (and, no, not in Lawrence). People are tired of his schtick and women here are appalled, including many of the 40-something traditional R voters I know. She probably will not win the state and may not win Iowa either, but these trends suggest potential blowouts elsewhere. I do not want to get my hopes up but at the same time, can’t deny the momentum. Fingers crossed!

I wish the Harris campaign had invested in Kansas. I know why they didn't, such a close election and they were already stretching with North Carolina. But have been saying since the Kanasas referendum (coupled with a Dem gov) that Kansas could be a surprise. I know it's on DLCC's list of states to grow in 2026.

This all makes me very happy as a native Kansan. I love that Sharice Davids is the rep for my hometown now.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Emerson poll has Trump +10 in Iowa. But feel free to cling to whatever poll makes you happier.

Yes but Selzer is THE Iowa pollster. Emerson polls nationally and is parachuting in.

I'm really struggling with this because the gulf is so wide, but I trust Selzer on Iowa over anyone else.

Her result is still within a standard margin of error, making them effectively tied. But if true, that is a huge swing. Iowa should not be in play if Trump is winning.

Also I'm still reviewing details of the poll but the most interesting result: it has women 65+ voting Harris 2-1. That's a huge deal because that's a very reliable voting bloc-- older people vote at high rates and older women vote more reliably than men.

Yes. Older women are super super pissed. They don’t want people messing around with reproductive rights and they remember pre-roe and many have a lot of sad stories. Not so much back alley abortions, but misguided marriages and lost career opportunities.

Plus they don’t want the gop cratering social security and Medicare. The media has not given this much attention, but it has been a consistent plot line from the gop to get rid of those entitlements and older women are sensitive about the issue.

+1 Surprise, surprise-- older women are ignored.

+2 old women invisible to media? Tell me a new one.

Anonymous wrote:Stop already.

You are such a hack. List your citation, here is mine:
Oct. 31, 2020

Iowa Poll: Donald Trump takes over lead in Iowa as Joe Biden fades

Republican President Donald Trump has taken over the lead in Iowa as Democratic former Vice President Joe Biden has faded, a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows just days before Election Day.

The president now leads by 7 percentage points over Biden, 48% to 41%. Three percent say they will vote for someone else, 2% aren't sure and 5% don't want to say for whom they will vote.

In September's Iowa Poll, the candidates were tied at 47% to 47%.

The poll of 814 likely Iowa voters was conducted by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines from Oct. 26-29.
https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2020/10/31/election-2020-iowa-poll-president-donald-trump-leads-joe-biden/6061937002/

I think Nate Silver is freaking out a little lol. Even if Selzer's poll is off by 5 points, which is within her MOE (3.4 points for each candidate) it means this election won't be close at all and nobody is going to pay attention to poll aggregators anymore because most of the polls are complete garbage.

Anonymous wrote:Fwiw i am in a rural part of Florida this weekend and I am shocked how few Trump signs I am seeing - and how many Harris signs I am seeing here.

I don’t think Harris is winning FLorida - if only - but I do think that people are much much less enthusiastic about Trump than they used to be, and many (like me) are desperate to move on from this wretched era.

I know it seems shocking given his slick dance moves, his unconventional method of opening truck doors, and his top notch air fellatio skills. But somehow here we are.

I imagine that people in Iowa are probably feeling about the same.

Anyway, last night when I saw the Selzer poll it took everything I had not to stop people on the street to show it to them.

Lolol!

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Keep dreaming about Iowa you liberal fools.

Make sure you have you “safe spaces” set up on Wednesday so you can go there and cry together.

Trump has two problems in Iowa abortion and farmers.

Farmers went bankrupt at a high rate because of his policies.

This. I am a prior poster with Iowan spouse. I frankly dont think Harris is going to win Iowa (I actually concluded Trump is going to win the election and I have been stressed out accordingly), but these two points are real issues. Except for a couple of mega religious relatives, my extended ILs are not super happy about abortion but consider it a private issue and dont like heavy government intervention and not especially something like a 6 week ban. My Iowan conservative SIL is an obgyn and she does abortions and thinks a ban like this is profoundly wrong. A couple of relatives are farmers. Last time around as soon as trump put tariffs in China, China retaliated by blocking soy and other agricultural products from the US ans farmers lost a lot, even with the money the government gave them. Most of all they lost customers snd a market. Chinese clients started importing from Brazil and other countries (apparently Brazilian farmers adore Trump, got so much business thanks to him) and and not going back to US suppliers .

Some many conservatives dont like the 6week abortion ban for sure. I guess some farmers may be concerned of bearing the brunt of trade war again. Hopefully these groups will consider these issues when they vote, snd not just the “open border” I hear my ILs discuss all the time

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Fabrizio talking about 2020 as if:

(a) we didn't all watch on live TV as Trump's yahoos tried to take the capitol using force after that election, and

(b) Trump's hand-picked judges didn't overturn a fundamental right for women that had been secured in 1973 specifically to keep women from dying (as has started happening again).

We'll see what happens on Tuesday, but it's a different election than it was 4 years ago.

You act as if a) Biden and Harris didn’t go on a massive spending spree and cause prices to rise by 20%, b) Biden and Harris didn’t open up the border, inviting over 10 million illegal immigrants to come into the country.

Pp. I’ve said it before. A normal republican candidate would probably do really really well this year. For some reason, the GOP got behind a nearly 80-year-old felon who stole classified documents, cheated on his wife with a porn star, assaulted women and bragged about it, already lost the electoral college once (and the popular vote twice and btw hasn’t gotten any better), and tried to toss out an entire nation’s votes by forcefully storming the capitol. Oh yeah, and he removed a critical right from half the population —the half that happens to vote most consistently.

What a godawful candidate he is.

Could the richest man in the world get him across the finish line? Sure, maybe. Oligarchies exist in many places, after all.

But Trump is a terrible candidate. Just rotten.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Emerson poll has Trump +10 in Iowa. But feel free to cling to whatever poll makes you happier.

Yes but Selzer is THE Iowa pollster. Emerson polls nationally and is parachuting in.

I'm really struggling with this because the gulf is so wide, but I trust Selzer on Iowa over anyone else.

Her result is still within a standard margin of error, making them effectively tied. But if true, that is a huge swing. Iowa should not be in play if Trump is winning.

Also I'm still reviewing details of the poll but the most interesting result: it has women 65+ voting Harris 2-1. That's a huge deal because that's a very reliable voting bloc-- older people vote at high rates and older women vote more reliably than men.

Yes. Older women are super super pissed. They don’t want people messing around with reproductive rights and they remember pre-roe and many have a lot of sad stories. Not so much back alley abortions, but misguided marriages and lost career opportunities.

Plus they don’t want the gop cratering social security and Medicare. The media has not given this much attention, but it has been a consistent plot line from the gop to get rid of those entitlements and older women are sensitive about the issue.

+1 Surprise, surprise-- older women are ignored.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don’t think she’s going to win Iowa but the people automatically discounting this don’t know anything about polls. Selzer is worshipped by the people who do. Keep in mind - go back a few pages - this makes sense when Trump is only up in Kansas by 5, Harris is up by 12 in the 2nd congressional district and down by only 4 in the 1st, and a Miami University poll of Ohio has him up there by only 3.

+1. Sitting here in Kansas absolutely surrounded by Harris signs (and, no, not in Lawrence). People are tired of his schtick and women here are appalled, including many of the 40-something traditional R voters I know. She probably will not win the state and may not win Iowa either, but these trends suggest potential blowouts elsewhere. I do not want to get my hopes up but at the same time, can’t deny the momentum. Fingers crossed!

I wish the Harris campaign had invested in Kansas. I know why they didn't, such a close election and they were already stretching with North Carolina. But have been saying since the Kanasas referendum (coupled with a Dem gov) that Kansas could be a surprise. I know it's on DLCC's list of states to grow in 2026.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This is a more reputable poll that shows Trump ahead by 10. Wishful thinking


https://emersoncollegepolling.com/november-2024-iowa-poll-trump-53-harris-43/

LOL Emerson is not more reputable than Selzer.

Silver himself says Emerson is guilty of herding so they are basically making up their results.

Yes she's retiring and throwing in a last hail Mary to hype up women lefties

Copium lol

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This is a more reputable poll that shows Trump ahead by 10. Wishful thinking


https://emersoncollegepolling.com/november-2024-iowa-poll-trump-53-harris-43/

LOL Emerson is not more reputable than Selzer.

Silver himself says Emerson is guilty of herding so they are basically making up their results.

Yes she's retiring and throwing in a last hail Mary to hype up women lefties

Anonymous wrote:Lol if you believe this. Have you been to Iowa? I grew up there. The Democrats are dead to those people. I have family members that were Democrats for years, but are now loyal Trump supporters. No chance those people are backing Kamala Harris.

This isn't about Harris winning Iowa. It's what it says about non-college older white women. They live in many states and if they are voting for Harris 2 -1 then Donny is in trouble, bigly.