Anonymous
11/05/2020 12:41
Subject: 2020 Senate Map
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:
Senate in two years.
Democrats should learn from 2020 and prep for it now.
+1 - really need to do some serious soul-searching on getting back some of those Latino votes. Miami-Dade was a disaster.
Yes. Latinos swung hard for Trump yesterday. Instead of going on about “the demographics are changing!” and thinking changing demographics automatically means you’ll make inroads with those groups. I always laugh when I hear that line because it’s so...simplistic. Use a little nuance, will you? And actually *gasp* do outreach and work for the votes. Latinos (and any other POC group) are not a monolith. Many are actually very conservative due to immigration and the abortion issue.
I never thought they were a monolith. I did think they would not (in the numbers they did) vote for a guy who called their home countries shitholes, who referred to Mexicans as rapists, questioned a Mexican judge on the basis of his race, and who generally would rather round up and return immigrants from their countries rather than see them as American citizens. But I guess voting against your interests is something all races, genders, economic castes, suffer from . . .
Anonymous
11/05/2020 12:33
Subject: 2020 Senate Map
In the Perdue Ossoff GA Senate race, with all three candidates considered, Perdue now has 49.9991813789%
Anonymous
11/05/2020 11:35
Subject: 2020 Senate Map
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:
Based on the composition of the outstanding vote, it appears likely that there will be a double runoff in Georgia in January. The Republicans will only be up 50-48, so it is not out of the realm of possibility that we will have a 50-50 Senate with VP Harris presiding to break all ties. Purdue might have a slight edge in a rematch but Loeffler is not a strong candidate.
I think Ossoff might come back stronger in a runoff (he's done it twice now). As for Loeffler - she had 10% less votes than Warnoff.
Very exciting.
Wut?
Loeffler split the vote with Collins
She’s going to win with a head to head.
Her and Collins add up to 46%. She is not popular. Warnoff will get tons of money. And confident predictions are no longer legal in the United States.
Were there any other Republicans or R-leaning independents/Libertarians on the ballot that she could draw support from? I did see that she and Collins together were below 50% but wasn’t sure if there was anyone way down ballot with like .5% whose supporters might go for her.
Anonymous
11/05/2020 11:35
Subject: 2020 Senate Map
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:
Based on the composition of the outstanding vote, it appears likely that there will be a double runoff in Georgia in January. The Republicans will only be up 50-48, so it is not out of the realm of possibility that we will have a 50-50 Senate with VP Harris presiding to break all ties. Purdue might have a slight edge in a rematch but Loeffler is not a strong candidate.
I think Ossoff might come back stronger in a runoff (he's done it twice now). As for Loeffler - she had 10% less votes than Warnoff.
Very exciting.
Wut?
Loeffler split the vote with Collins
She’s going to win with a head to head.
I remain totally confused as to how she came out ahead of Collins.
And if you add up all of the Democratic votes in the race, Warnock could have squeaked by with 50%, argh.
But, whole new ballgame.
Anonymous
11/05/2020 11:31
Subject: 2020 Senate Map
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:
Based on the composition of the outstanding vote, it appears likely that there will be a double runoff in Georgia in January. The Republicans will only be up 50-48, so it is not out of the realm of possibility that we will have a 50-50 Senate with VP Harris presiding to break all ties. Purdue might have a slight edge in a rematch but Loeffler is not a strong candidate.
I think Ossoff might come back stronger in a runoff (he's done it twice now). As for Loeffler - she had 10% less votes than Warnoff.
Very exciting.
Wut?
Loeffler split the vote with Collins
She’s going to win with a head to head.
Her and Collins add up to 46%. She is not popular. Warnoff will get tons of money. And confident predictions are no longer legal in the United States.
Anonymous
11/05/2020 11:27
Subject: 2020 Senate Map
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:
Based on the composition of the outstanding vote, it appears likely that there will be a double runoff in Georgia in January. The Republicans will only be up 50-48, so it is not out of the realm of possibility that we will have a 50-50 Senate with VP Harris presiding to break all ties. Purdue might have a slight edge in a rematch but Loeffler is not a strong candidate.
I think Ossoff might come back stronger in a runoff (he's done it twice now). As for Loeffler - she had 10% less votes than Warnoff.
Very exciting.
Wut?
Loeffler split the vote with Collins
She’s going to win with a head to head.
Anonymous
11/05/2020 06:58
Subject: 2020 Senate Map
Anonymous wrote:
Based on the composition of the outstanding vote, it appears likely that there will be a double runoff in Georgia in January. The Republicans will only be up 50-48, so it is not out of the realm of possibility that we will have a 50-50 Senate with VP Harris presiding to break all ties. Purdue might have a slight edge in a rematch but Loeffler is not a strong candidate.
I think Ossoff might come back stronger in a runoff (he's done it twice now). As for Loeffler - she had 10% less votes than Warnoff.
Very exciting.
Anonymous
11/05/2020 06:44
Subject: 2020 Senate Map
Anonymous wrote:All of the Republicans on here saying clearly Biden will have to govern from the middle and work with Republican senators are either lying or are completely ignorant of actual history. We have literally been in this same situation before. In 2008 when Obama won in the middle of an economic downturn, McConnell refused to work on an economic stimulus policy because having the economy stumble along was advantageous to the Republican Party's prospects in the 2010 midterm. He refused to work with Obama on a REPUBLICAN healthcare plan (the ACA) because any legislation passed by the Obama administration was seen as detrimental to Republicans regaining power in Congress. He was correct in that assessment because that was the biggest midterm pickup.
Unless Biden nominates an ultra-conservative judge, McConnell will block the nomination because Republicans aren't interested in having moderate judges when they can easily block nominations and then pack the courts with FedSoc judges. There is literally no downside to McConnell and the Republican Party in blocking all attempts at governance.
Biden will not have a choice. He cannot build a coalition from the extreme left. Almost every media-declared tossup race in the House and Senate went to the Republicans. Democrats lost seats in the House and are unlikely to retake the Senate.
Biden's best chance to be a productive president is to work with his strong party leadership in the House and pick off some Republicans in the Senate to get things done. Biden has personal relationships in the Senate in both parties that Obama did not build because he spent at least half of his time in the Senate running for president. For whatever reason, Obama reportedly did not seem to like politicking on the Hill when he was president either. Biden is different. He is a tactile politician. VP Harris also can introduce Biden to the new kids in the Senate who got there in the last 4 years. It could work for a while.
Anonymous
11/05/2020 06:32
Subject: 2020 Senate Map
Based on the composition of the outstanding vote, it appears likely that there will be a double runoff in Georgia in January. The Republicans will only be up 50-48, so it is not out of the realm of possibility that we will have a 50-50 Senate with VP Harris presiding to break all ties. Purdue might have a slight edge in a rematch but Loeffler is not a strong candidate.
Anonymous
11/04/2020 23:28
Subject: 2020 Senate Map
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:
Senate in two years.
Democrats should learn from 2020 and prep for it now.
+1 - really need to do some serious soul-searching on getting back some of those Latino votes. Miami-Dade was a disaster.
Yes. Latinos swung hard for Trump yesterday. Instead of going on about “the demographics are changing!” and thinking changing demographics automatically means you’ll make inroads with those groups. I always laugh when I hear that line because it’s so...simplistic. Use a little nuance, will you? And actually *gasp* do outreach and work for the votes. Latinos (and any other POC group) are not a monolith. Many are actually very conservative due to immigration and the abortion issue.
Democrats will never budge on abortion, but I do think we need to make a compromise on immigration and stop dismissing people who are very concerned about it.
Anonymous
11/04/2020 23:23
Subject: 2020 Senate Map
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:
Senate in two years.
Democrats should learn from 2020 and prep for it now.
+1 - really need to do some serious soul-searching on getting back some of those Latino votes. Miami-Dade was a disaster.
Yes. Latinos swung hard for Trump yesterday. Instead of going on about “the demographics are changing!” and thinking changing demographics automatically means you’ll make inroads with those groups. I always laugh when I hear that line because it’s so...simplistic. Use a little nuance, will you? And actually *gasp* do outreach and work for the votes. Latinos (and any other POC group) are not a monolith. Many are actually very conservative due to immigration and the abortion issue.
Anonymous
Anonymous
11/04/2020 23:05
Subject: 2020 Senate Map
Gary Peters wins against John James.
Anonymous
11/04/2020 20:48
Subject: 2020 Senate Map
It's gonna be a rough ride of gridlock to get biden out
Anonymous
11/04/2020 20:33
Subject: 2020 Senate Map
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:
Senate in two years.
Democrats should learn from 2020 and prep for it now.
What does “learn” mean? Fox will call them socialists no matter what.
No, I'm talking about granular investing and researching by COUNTY and CITY to appeal to Democrat-leaning voters who were under-solicited/taken for granted in 2020. Instead of throwing billions away at races that were not winnable anyway.
People must remember that the era of blanket TV ads is OVER. Democrats must make better use of social media, and better use of powerful polling data and research to customize local electoral fights.
I'm not blaming anyone in 2020. Democrats were so desperate to push Trump out and any down-ballot Republican, there was a groundswell of grass roots funding that was not thoughtfully funneled. They should strategize very carefully for 2022.