Lax Math just published their Championship Probabilities. I was close on several but that was before the South Lakes upset of Centreville as they jumped the most and appears I did have Woodson too high.

Should be an exciting finish and good luck to all the teams and health of the players. Lot of talent across all the teams below and spirited fans at each school!

What odds do you like if bankroll is 20 units? -- entertainment purposes only

1) Battlefield 28.5%
2) Oakton 20.5%
3) Robinson 11% -- 10 units of bankroll placed here
4) Madison 9% -- 10 units of bankroll placed here
5) South Lakes 8%
6) Centreville 6%
7) West Potomac 5.5%
8) Yorktown 4.5%
9) Woodson 3.5% -- Didn't they just beat West Po?
10) Langley, West Springfield 00.00%

Anonymous wrote:Valid point. The Man U is a darn good standard of conditioning. My guess is, unfortunately, less than 5 percent of high school lax players can compete it.

I got tired just reading it.

Valid point. The Man U is a darn good standard of conditioning. My guess is, unfortunately, less than 5 percent of high school lax players can compete it.

Anonymous wrote:PP about the Manchester test. Cmon man, what a delusional statement to make and shows you know nothing about the game. That is just a test and is not the end be all of tests. Some college programs use it, some don't. I have not seen any college middie play an entire game without coming off the field- 100% guaranteed that does not happen. Yes you will see some middies get more time on the field than others, but never in my life have i seen a D1 college middie stay on the field for the whole game and never come off.
High school is a different story as there are many high school public coaches that don't have the player depth and they just ride those starters into the ground without thinking of the long term consequences.

No, the Man U is not the end all and be all, but it does show that a player can run the length of the field 40 times (20 full sprints) and do their fastest sprint at the end (under 15 seconds). Players who can do that, are not going to run out of gas in the 2nd half. Whether it’s high school or college, a team’s star players never get more than a short breather. The exceptions are teams that have near equal talent at the same position. Pick a college team and it’s top scorer, then watch and see how long the player sits during the upcoming playoffs.

Having watched all teams in the Concorde, I would say it is a likely outcome but South Lakes and Centreville can make an argument for an upset. Top 4 go to Regionals anyway. Not sure how they seed and set up schedule for that.

So what are we thinking? Oakton Madison in championship game?

Anonymous wrote:I like Herndon for the upset vs Cville, but do agree with the seedings for the Concord District.

That comment will garner some attention….

I like Herndon for the upset vs Cville, but do agree with the seedings for the Concord District.

Westfield at Madison
Chantilly at Oakton
Centreville at Herndon

Final games for Concorde this evening.

Barring major upset:
1 seed Oakton
2 seed Madison
3 seed South Lakes
4 seed Centreville
5 seed Westfields
6 seed Chantilly

I think Oakton plays Chantilly tonight....

PP about the Manchester test. Cmon man, what a delusional statement to make and shows you know nothing about the game. That is just a test and is not the end be all of tests. Some college programs use it, some don't. I have not seen any college middie play an entire game without coming off the field- 100% guaranteed that does not happen. Yes you will see some middies get more time on the field than others, but never in my life have i seen a D1 college middie stay on the field for the whole game and never come off.
High school is a different story as there are many high school public coaches that don't have the player depth and they just ride those starters into the ground without thinking of the long term consequences.

Are regular seasons finished? What are the final rankings for the conferences going into district play, who will play who

Anonymous wrote:I'm not sure if it was two-thirds, Centreville won a lot of the first half and struggled the second half.
South Lakes won with speed, Centreville refuses to use their subs and it shows later in the game, you can't expect mids to run full throttle the entire game.

There’s plenty of midfielders at the college level, and some in high school, who can run an entire game without getting too tired. If they can complete the Manchester United test, then going back and forth down the field for an entire game is not an issue (Unless turnovers keep them going back and forth without any natural break). If a player falls off in the second half because they are tired, then they need more conditioning.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:#8 was solid on the draw winning nearly two-thirds and #22 back and scoring 5 goals & 1 assist. They had Oakton nearly even (8-9) at half time. Coach will have them ready for rematch against Oakton assuming they don't overlook Westfield.

If Centerville won “nearly two-thirds” of the draws, then how did South Lakes win? Did the goalie have a great game? The rest of South Lakes’ defense is mediocre.

I'm not sure if it was two-thirds, Centreville won a lot of the first half and struggled the second half.
South Lakes won with speed, Centreville refuses to use their subs and it shows later in the game, you can't expect mids to run full throttle the entire game.

Stick to doing BBQ reviews. Cville did win almost 2/3 the draws but turnovers hurt them all game. They don’t have subs for middie but keep pretending to know.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:#8 was solid on the draw winning nearly two-thirds and #22 back and scoring 5 goals & 1 assist. They had Oakton nearly even (8-9) at half time. Coach will have them ready for rematch against Oakton assuming they don't overlook Westfield.

If Centerville won “nearly two-thirds” of the draws, then how did South Lakes win? Did the goalie have a great game? The rest of South Lakes’ defense is mediocre.

I'm not sure if it was two-thirds, Centreville won a lot of the first half and struggled the second half.
South Lakes won with speed, Centreville refuses to use their subs and it shows later in the game, you can't expect mids to run full throttle the entire game.