Anonymous wrote:Right now only 26 people in the entire USA have caught COVID from someone else and most of those people are in a nursing home.

At this point your chances of winning a huge lottery are higher than your chances of catching COVID 19. In the six weeks that it has been spreading there are still less than 100 cases in the US and 48 of those are people expatriates back from China and the cruise ship. A measly 26 have caught it from someone else (and in the confines of a nursing home with a vulnerable population mostly).

The numbers will rise but I think it is alarmist at this stage to be cancelling all travel. It is very very low risk that you will catch it right now, especially when travelling to cities that don't even have confirmed cases.

And 6 have died. Some are in critical condition. With many more exhibiting symptoms.

Say you go on a trip, you come back and go to work or to your neighbors potluck. Someone there visits their aging parent in a nursing home or someone there works in a nursing home... see how this goes.

And your 6 weeks of spreading with little cases is meaningless since there hasn’t been widespread testing. If we aren’t testing very many then of course our numbers remain low and then of course everyone is a low risk of ever being positive for this.

Also if you look at the way this has spread overseas, you see it starts with a lowish number, then doubles, then triples..

I’m not saying everyone should panic, that will solve nothing. But taking precautions and acting in preventative measures rather than just waiting and saying nothing to see here when clearly the world shows us otherwise is the most rational path not an alarmist path.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Right now only 26 people in the entire USA have caught COVID from someone else and most of those people are in a nursing home.

At this point your chances of winning a huge lottery are higher than your chances of catching COVID 19. In the six weeks that it has been spreading there are still less than 100 cases in the US and 48 of those are people expatriates back from China and the cruise ship. A measly 26 have caught it from someone else (and in the confines of a nursing home with a vulnerable population mostly).

The numbers will rise but I think it is alarmist at this stage to be cancelling all travel. It is very very low risk that you will catch it right now, especially when travelling to cities that don't even have confirmed cases.

I strongly suspect that these numbers are artificially low because the US has NOT done an adequate job of testing the required number of people to get an accurate sense of the spread of COVID-19. It's already been reported that the initial batch of tests that the CDC sent out for testing was both small AND faulty. If we are seeing community cases in various parts of the country--that is, cases where patient-zero can't be identified--it means that the patient is likely already two or three degrees removed from patient zero, which means statistically that there are likely thousands of Americans with COVID across the country right now. We just haven't had them tested and reported. As better test kits become more widely available this week, numbers will go drastically up. Likely people have already died with COVID that we don't know about because they haven't been tested.

NP, I agree with this--the number of cases is likely much higher than already identified, for the reasons you mention.

Anonymous wrote:Right now only 26 people in the entire USA have caught COVID from someone else and most of those people are in a nursing home.

At this point your chances of winning a huge lottery are higher than your chances of catching COVID 19. In the six weeks that it has been spreading there are still less than 100 cases in the US and 48 of those are people expatriates back from China and the cruise ship. A measly 26 have caught it from someone else (and in the confines of a nursing home with a vulnerable population mostly).

The numbers will rise but I think it is alarmist at this stage to be cancelling all travel. It is very very low risk that you will catch it right now, especially when travelling to cities that don't even have confirmed cases.

I strongly suspect that these numbers are artificially low because the US has NOT done an adequate job of testing the required number of people to get an accurate sense of the spread of COVID-19. It's already been reported that the initial batch of tests that the CDC sent out for testing was both small AND faulty. If we are seeing community cases in various parts of the country--that is, cases where patient-zero can't be identified--it means that the patient is likely already two or three degrees removed from patient zero, which means statistically that there are likely thousands of Americans with COVID across the country right now. We just haven't had them tested and reported. As better test kits become more widely available this week, numbers will go drastically up. Likely people have already died with COVID that we don't know about because they haven't been tested.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Spring Training in about a week with my family, including my elderly parents (85 and 92). I think I know the answer to this but my parents are so looking forward to going to Florida and are huge Nats fans..

We're heading down for Spring Training this weekend with my asthmatic mother-in-law (in her 70s), and she has no qualms about going, FWIW.

There are now confirmed cases of the virus in Florida of unknown origin. That being said, there's a big difference between someone in her 70s and someone in his 90s. Is your mom in otherwise good health? What is the cause of her asthma and how severe is it? I think she should clear it with her doctor before traveling.

I have an asthmatic mother in her mid-70s, and I’d be concerned about her traveling right now. But I can also imagine that if I were 85 or 92 I might see taking a long-anticipated trip as a worthwhile risk, in the grand scheme of things.

For the AZ family (hello, fellow Zoner), I would look into getting a vrbo apartment in philly close to a park/playground and finding a nanny service there. Care.com or start a new post on dcum for recommendations and/or ask at CHOP. And count on unlimited screen time and ice cream for your three year old.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Spring Training in about a week with my family, including my elderly parents (85 and 92). I think I know the answer to this but my parents are so looking forward to going to Florida and are huge Nats fans..

We're heading down for Spring Training this weekend with my asthmatic mother-in-law (in her 70s), and she has no qualms about going, FWIW.

There are now confirmed cases of the virus in Florida of unknown origin. That being said, there's a big difference between someone in her 70s and someone in his 90s. Is your mom in otherwise good health? What is the cause of her asthma and how severe is it? I think she should clear it with her doctor before traveling.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We need to take our 1 yo to CHildrens Hospital Philadelphia (we live in Arizona, not DC so it’s far). We would have to leave our 3.5 yo back here and we don’t have good support. We’d be leaving him with nannies and one relative who has a very full plate herself.

It feels like such a rock and a hard place. We need to go but I am afraid of something happening and us getting quarantined, leaving our 3.5 yo for days or weeks without a solid caregiver.

We keep postponing because I can’t get a solid plan in place for the 3.5 yo, and bringing him will be very hard.

That sounds really hard. Do both parents need to go to CHOP? I understand that would normally be the preference, but is it possible to have one parent stay with the 3.5 yo and one travel with the 1 yo?

+1

Maybe you've already tried this, but have you called CHOP and asked if they have any recommendations for a child care service? I'm thinking then you can bring 3.5 year old with you but have them with a babysitter when needed.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Headed to Grand Cayman in 3 weeks. Still planning on going. Is that crazy?

No-- we also have a family trip planned to Aruba then.

We are also planning to head to Grand Cayman in three weeks. I'm still 50/50 on it - I"m not worried about getting sick, but rather getting stuck in quarantine off U.S. soil. I have until a week before to decide - does anyone think we can get a sense of whether a quarantine would happen in the subsequent two weeks? I'm guessing not - they can pop up at any point, right? I know the island recently turned away a cruise hip, but will they be able to do that with the influx that's surely expected for spring break?

We vacation on GC often, and one of our kids once had an overnight hospital stay; the health care quality was fantastic. I’m not sure what I would do, honestly; being so familiar with the place, I might be inclined to still go. But the worries about getting stuck in quarantine are real. And it’s such a small country that its very good hospital could certainly get overwhelmed quickly.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We need to take our 1 yo to CHildrens Hospital Philadelphia (we live in Arizona, not DC so it’s far). We would have to leave our 3.5 yo back here and we don’t have good support. We’d be leaving him with nannies and one relative who has a very full plate herself.

It feels like such a rock and a hard place. We need to go but I am afraid of something happening and us getting quarantined, leaving our 3.5 yo for days or weeks without a solid caregiver.

We keep postponing because I can’t get a solid plan in place for the 3.5 yo, and bringing him will be very hard.

That sounds really hard. Do both parents need to go to CHOP? I understand that would normally be the preference, but is it possible to have one parent stay with the 3.5 yo and one travel with the 1 yo?

+1

Anonymous wrote:We need to take our 1 yo to CHildrens Hospital Philadelphia (we live in Arizona, not DC so it’s far). We would have to leave our 3.5 yo back here and we don’t have good support. We’d be leaving him with nannies and one relative who has a very full plate herself.

It feels like such a rock and a hard place. We need to go but I am afraid of something happening and us getting quarantined, leaving our 3.5 yo for days or weeks without a solid caregiver.

We keep postponing because I can’t get a solid plan in place for the 3.5 yo, and bringing him will be very hard.

I’m sorry, that’s such a tough position to be in.

Anonymous wrote:We need to take our 1 yo to CHildrens Hospital Philadelphia (we live in Arizona, not DC so it’s far). We would have to leave our 3.5 yo back here and we don’t have good support. We’d be leaving him with nannies and one relative who has a very full plate herself.

It feels like such a rock and a hard place. We need to go but I am afraid of something happening and us getting quarantined, leaving our 3.5 yo for days or weeks without a solid caregiver.

We keep postponing because I can’t get a solid plan in place for the 3.5 yo, and bringing him will be very hard.

I would have one parent stay with the 3 year old and one parent go with the one year old? How many days is your time in PA planned for?

I wouldn’t worry as much about quarantine but wouldn’t feel comfortable with the plan you have in place at home for the 3 year old.

Anonymous wrote:We need to take our 1 yo to CHildrens Hospital Philadelphia (we live in Arizona, not DC so it’s far). We would have to leave our 3.5 yo back here and we don’t have good support. We’d be leaving him with nannies and one relative who has a very full plate herself.

It feels like such a rock and a hard place. We need to go but I am afraid of something happening and us getting quarantined, leaving our 3.5 yo for days or weeks without a solid caregiver.

We keep postponing because I can’t get a solid plan in place for the 3.5 yo, and bringing him will be very hard.

That sounds really hard. Do both parents need to go to CHOP? I understand that would normally be the preference, but is it possible to have one parent stay with the 3.5 yo and one travel with the 1 yo?

Anonymous wrote:We need to take our 1 yo to CHildrens Hospital Philadelphia (we live in Arizona, not DC so it’s far). We would have to leave our 3.5 yo back here and we don’t have good support. We’d be leaving him with nannies and one relative who has a very full plate herself.

It feels like such a rock and a hard place. We need to go but I am afraid of something happening and us getting quarantined, leaving our 3.5 yo for days or weeks without a solid caregiver.

We keep postponing because I can’t get a solid plan in place for the 3.5 yo, and bringing him will be very hard.

I'd go sooner rather than later. No cases in DC, MD, PA at this moment.

We need to take our 1 yo to CHildrens Hospital Philadelphia (we live in Arizona, not DC so it’s far). We would have to leave our 3.5 yo back here and we don’t have good support. We’d be leaving him with nannies and one relative who has a very full plate herself.

It feels like such a rock and a hard place. We need to go but I am afraid of something happening and us getting quarantined, leaving our 3.5 yo for days or weeks without a solid caregiver.

We keep postponing because I can’t get a solid plan in place for the 3.5 yo, and bringing him will be very hard.

Right now only 26 people in the entire USA have caught COVID from someone else and most of those people are in a nursing home.

At this point your chances of winning a huge lottery are higher than your chances of catching COVID 19. In the six weeks that it has been spreading there are still less than 100 cases in the US and 48 of those are people expatriates back from China and the cruise ship. A measly 26 have caught it from someone else (and in the confines of a nursing home with a vulnerable population mostly).

The numbers will rise but I think it is alarmist at this stage to be cancelling all travel. It is very very low risk that you will catch it right now, especially when travelling to cities that don't even have confirmed cases.