Anonymous
Post 03/12/2017 10:36     Subject: MAJOR Snowstorm?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:When do airlines start canceling flights?

Will I know by Monday for a Tuesday AM flight?


It will be snowing 1-2 inches an hour at times through Monday night into Tuesday morning. You're not flying out Tuesday morning.


Call the airlines and get out on Monday. They usually waive the fee if bad weather is coming.


+1. My neighbor changed his flight yesterday.
Anonymous
Post 03/12/2017 10:30     Subject: MAJOR Snowstorm?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:When do airlines start canceling flights?

Will I know by Monday for a Tuesday AM flight?


It will be snowing 1-2 inches an hour at times through Monday night into Tuesday morning. You're not flying out Tuesday morning.


Call the airlines and get out on Monday. They usually waive the fee if bad weather is coming.
Anonymous
Post 03/12/2017 09:50     Subject: MAJOR Snowstorm?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:The European model which is generally the best is predicting 8 to 12 inches.



Euro model is not the best. It is a good model for Medium range forecasts. The US has updated the computer infrastructures so no now the GFS may be better. Also, for short range, the NAM is more precise (if you adjust for its biases). There are technical reasons why: factors such as time step size and grid spacing for the finite difference codes.

Other models that adapt the grids to the atmospheric conditions (more grid points where things are unstable) have proven useful, but this is counter to the NWS mission of uniform coverage.


So what are the best models saying?


Someone quick! Get me the best models!
Anonymous
Post 03/12/2017 09:36     Subject: MAJOR Snowstorm?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:The European model which is generally the best is predicting 8 to 12 inches.



Euro model is not the best. It is a good model for Medium range forecasts. The US has updated the computer infrastructures so no now the GFS may be better. Also, for short range, the NAM is more precise (if you adjust for its biases). There are technical reasons why: factors such as time step size and grid spacing for the finite difference codes.

Other models that adapt the grids to the atmospheric conditions (more grid points where things are unstable) have proven useful, but this is counter to the NWS mission of uniform coverage.


So what are the best models saying?


What you want to see are models starting to come into agreement. They run at noon and midnight. Check back this afternoon, after today's 12noon run of the models. The storm will be 36 hours out and thus a better chance of accurate predictions.
Anonymous
Post 03/12/2017 09:36     Subject: MAJOR Snowstorm?
Anonymous wrote:When do airlines start canceling flights?

Will I know by Monday for a Tuesday AM flight?


It will be snowing 1-2 inches an hour at times through Monday night into Tuesday morning. You're not flying out Tuesday morning.
Anonymous
Post 03/12/2017 09:32     Subject: MAJOR Snowstorm?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:The European model which is generally the best is predicting 8 to 12 inches.



Euro model is not the best. It is a good model for Medium range forecasts. The US has updated the computer infrastructures so no now the GFS may be better. Also, for short range, the NAM is more precise (if you adjust for its biases). There are technical reasons why: factors such as time step size and grid spacing for the finite difference codes.

Other models that adapt the grids to the atmospheric conditions (more grid points where things are unstable) have proven useful, but this is counter to the NWS mission of uniform coverage.


So what are the best models saying?
Anonymous
Post 03/12/2017 09:10     Subject: MAJOR Snowstorm?
Anonymous wrote:For bragging rights, let's predict the following:

1. Snow accumulation in a specific area, and
2. School closings in a specific area.
3. OPM status

Be sure to include your name for appropriate bragging rights.

Example:

5 inches in Olney
MCPS closed Tuesday
OPM: open with liberal leave in effect

-Toonces


I'll play
- 9 inches at Dulles
- FCPS closed Tuesday and Wednesday, 2 he delay Thursday
- opm closed Tuesday and Wednesday

Signed,
Ice queen
Anonymous
Post 03/12/2017 09:06     Subject: MAJOR Snowstorm?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:It's nearly 6:30am on Sunday, yet all the predictions are still all over the place. CWG's update this morning indicates "low confidence."

Q: When can they actually provide a forecast with confidence? Tuesday?

I'm in MoCo, so I'm hopeful that even an inch or two on the ground by Tuesday morning will shut down schools since we haven't had any snow days.

CWG is the worst. The only thing they ever report with confidence is weather will happen.


Basically, I take them to mean that it is looking like an inch to greater amounts is possible, but it's too early to say that that is likely. It's like reading a weather report written by a committee of lawyers.


This is D.C. CWG knows their audience-- a bunch of lawyers (many trying to figure out if OPM will close).


I don't think people are trying to figure out if OPM will close. The issue is whether OPM will invoke one of its options for addressing alleged weather events such as this.
Anonymous
Post 03/12/2017 09:00     Subject: MAJOR Snowstorm?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:It's nearly 6:30am on Sunday, yet all the predictions are still all over the place. CWG's update this morning indicates "low confidence."

Q: When can they actually provide a forecast with confidence? Tuesday?

I'm in MoCo, so I'm hopeful that even an inch or two on the ground by Tuesday morning will shut down schools since we haven't had any snow days.

CWG is the worst. The only thing they ever report with confidence is weather will happen.


Basically, I take them to mean that it is looking like an inch to greater amounts is possible, but it's too early to say that that is likely. It's like reading a weather report written by a committee of lawyers.


This is D.C. CWG knows their audience-- a bunch of lawyers (many trying to figure out if OPM will close).
Anonymous
Post 03/12/2017 08:50     Subject: MAJOR Snowstorm?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:It's nearly 6:30am on Sunday, yet all the predictions are still all over the place. CWG's update this morning indicates "low confidence."

Q: When can they actually provide a forecast with confidence? Tuesday?

I'm in MoCo, so I'm hopeful that even an inch or two on the ground by Tuesday morning will shut down schools since we haven't had any snow days.

CWG is the worst. The only thing they ever report with confidence is weather will happen.


Basically, I take them to mean that it is looking like an inch to greater amounts is possible, but it's too early to say that that is likely. It's like reading a weather report written by a committee of lawyers.
Anonymous
Post 03/12/2017 08:36     Subject: MAJOR Snowstorm?
Anonymous wrote:The European model which is generally the best is predicting 8 to 12 inches.



Euro model is not the best. It is a good model for Medium range forecasts. The US has updated the computer infrastructures so no now the GFS may be better. Also, for short range, the NAM is more precise (if you adjust for its biases). There are technical reasons why: factors such as time step size and grid spacing for the finite difference codes.

Other models that adapt the grids to the atmospheric conditions (more grid points where things are unstable) have proven useful, but this is counter to the NWS mission of uniform coverage.
Anonymous
Post 03/12/2017 08:36     Subject: MAJOR Snowstorm?
For bragging rights, let's predict the following:

1. Snow accumulation in a specific area, and
2. School closings in a specific area.
3. OPM status

Be sure to include your name for appropriate bragging rights.

Example:

5 inches in Olney
MCPS closed Tuesday
OPM: open with liberal leave in effect

-Toonces
Anonymous
Post 03/12/2017 08:31     Subject: MAJOR Snowstorm?
Anonymous wrote:Please God, no snow.


+1. It won't get me a day off work unless it's enough to bury the entire city, so all it will be is cold, inconvenient, dangerous, and unpleasant. I was perfectly happy with the no snow winter we'd had so far, and with the pleasant nearly 70 degrees weather prior to this cold front.
Anonymous
Post 03/12/2017 08:26     Subject: MAJOR Snowstorm?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:It's nearly 6:30am on Sunday, yet all the predictions are still all over the place. CWG's update this morning indicates "low confidence."

Q: When can they actually provide a forecast with confidence? Tuesday?

I'm in MoCo, so I'm hopeful that even an inch or two on the ground by Tuesday morning will shut down schools since we haven't had any snow days.

CWG is the worst. The only thing they ever report with confidence is weather will happen.


True.. they are in the NOWCAST business.
Anonymous
Post 03/12/2017 08:17     Subject: MAJOR Snowstorm?
When do airlines start canceling flights?

Will I know by Monday for a Tuesday AM flight?