Anonymous
Post 07/21/2024 18:01     Subject: Any predictions on divisions next year - MCSL

Anonymous wrote:Why not just share the actual leaked list here? Curious to know where Hallowell and Regency Estates. Glad to see WM move up. Hopefully they will get humbled enough to have better sportsmanship. Summer swim used to be fun!


Where has Regency Estates come from. They are swimming like the late 90's all over again. That team has come out of no where in recent years. I think their coach resigned though.
Anonymous
Post 07/21/2024 17:37     Subject: Any predictions on divisions next year - MCSL

Anonymous wrote:We were 1-5 and moved up a Division based on th swim off algorithm, not because our coach was good. She sucked.


We were 1-4 also and moved up. We were very surprised also but it has nothing to do with the coaching.
Anonymous
Post 07/21/2024 16:10     Subject: Any predictions on divisions next year - MCSL

Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
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Anonymous wrote:They count with winning the division! The ultimate goal is for a trophy for these kids, not rising to another division!!!!


That's great and all. So the team that wins the division moves up (and gets trophy), but a team that had its a$$ handed to it most of the season also moves up? Part of the victory in winning the division is moving up, while teams that you beat don't move up. Selecting who moves up based on meets that were never swum are wrong.

Anyone know if the virtual meet calculation is a holdover from the covid-19 pandemic?


They’ve been seeding via virtual meets for decades.


Thanks. However, it seems to be a relatively unknown fact among many parents. It's certainly not something posted prominently on the MCSL Divisional standings page (as opposed to a very prominent Division Standings page with points and ranks for meets, carnival and divisionals).

What doesn't seem right is that a team that wins only 1-2 meets out of 5 could still move up a division (while a 3-2 team doesn't), and a team that wins 0 out of 5 could stay in its division.


Then blame your coach. Whenever we move divisions the coaches explain why and how the determination is made. It’s not a secret.


This! I’ve known this since my now 18 yr old was roughly 10. Now you know too. It actually doesn’t mean it’s not still fun to win dual meets it is! It’s fun to win Relays, go to All Stars, or just race your teammate or your own PR. The division doesn’t matter. My kids have competed in Divisions A-J over the years. It’s all fun and it’s a bit silly to get hung up on How the Divisions are assigned. . .


DP - newer families don’t know this yet, and that’s okay. Not every coach explains it as clearly as yours apparently does. It’s confusing to *children* how they can win every dual meet *and* Divisionals and still not move up. Children are not adults. Moreover, multiple things can be true: MCSL is over complicating things, and Divisions have to be assigned somehow, and it’s confusing for kids, and it’s still fun to win.

There are more than two outcomes than either smugly being above it all or being a silly goose who should know better.
Anonymous
Post 07/21/2024 15:44     Subject: Any predictions on divisions next year - MCSL

We were 1-5 and moved up a Division based on th swim off algorithm, not because our coach was good. She sucked.
Anonymous
Post 07/21/2024 14:22     Subject: Any predictions on divisions next year - MCSL

Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
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Anonymous wrote:Eldwick is lucky the divisionals results don’t have an effect on division standings. They might be the only 2025 B division team that didn’t crack 500 today


2025 division assignments are out. Eldwick is relegated two divisions from L to N!


Now that the game is up, Eldwick Troll, I salute you!!!


Rumor has it that Eldwick has filed a formal appeal. Stay tuned.


Are they an Eldwick troll? Or just a Joe Flaherty hater?


This Eldwick Troll is wrong. There is no way they would move up 10 spots. Also they went 0-6 in division L.
Anonymous
Post 07/21/2024 12:56     Subject: Any predictions on divisions next year - MCSL

Anonymous wrote:How did Wildwood move from D to A?


They have a number of great swimmers. Not just good but great ones in the team, like top PVS swimmers. 3~4 swimmers brought tons of points to the team all summer long and they went undefeated. I don’t see they win a dual meet next summer in Div A though. You have to have some depth to win in Div A, but WM’s depth is not quite there yet.
Anonymous
Post 07/21/2024 10:34     Subject: Any predictions on divisions next year - MCSL

Rockshire from H to L
Anonymous
Post 07/21/2024 08:31     Subject: Any predictions on divisions next year - MCSL

Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Eldwick is lucky the divisionals results don’t have an effect on division standings. They might be the only 2025 B division team that didn’t crack 500 today


2025 division assignments are out. Eldwick is relegated two divisions from L to N!


Now that the game is up, Eldwick Troll, I salute you!!!


Rumor has it that Eldwick has filed a formal appeal. Stay tuned.


Are they an Eldwick troll? Or just a Joe Flaherty hater?
Anonymous
Post 07/21/2024 07:59     Subject: Any predictions on divisions next year - MCSL

Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Eldwick is lucky the divisionals results don’t have an effect on division standings. They might be the only 2025 B division team that didn’t crack 500 today


2025 division assignments are out. Eldwick is relegated two divisions from L to N!


Now that the game is up, Eldwick Troll, I salute you!!!


Rumor has it that Eldwick has filed a formal appeal. Stay tuned.
Anonymous
Post 07/20/2024 22:27     Subject: Any predictions on divisions next year - MCSL

In case of interest, here is the MCSL explanation on divisional assignments: “Division assignments are determined by a computerized swim-off. The median of the top 3 times from each team for each event from every dual meet is computed. Using these 3 times, each team is then swum against all other teams. Placement for the subsequent year is based on the number of wins, with ties broken by total points scored. No allowance is made for aging up or other potential changes.”

Anonymous
Post 07/20/2024 22:20     Subject: Any predictions on divisions next year - MCSL

Anonymous wrote:
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Anonymous wrote:Why not just share the actual leaked list here? Curious to know where Hallowell and Regency Estates. Glad to see WM move up. Hopefully they will get humbled enough to have better sportsmanship. Summer swim used to be fun!


There is no leaked list


I’m not the poster with the leaked list, but I know for a fact that certain individuals do receive the list early (late Sunday night after the algorithm is run) so a leaked list is very possible.


Data and algorithm are public. No need to leak


Data are not public until this weekend


Data are the 5 A meet results for each team. They are on the league web site.


No I believe they use the middle time for each meet entry over the 5 weeks to create entry times for every swim in the virtual meet (ie first place 12 and U IM swimmer; 2nd and 3rd places as well). So you have to have the results from all 5 meets to create the entries. They then use those times to run the virtual meets. Then they use the win loss record of the virtual meets to create divisions.


What about divisionals? That should count too, right?


From the Reach for the Wall article -

Teams are placed in divisions each year based on a computer swim-off using times from the previous season. That is, MCSL (i) creates one virtual team for each MCSL team based on the median times from all five of that team’s dual meets the prior year, and then (ii) runs a virtual meet between every virtual team (similar to how Reach for the Wall runs virtual meets). The team with 90 wins (meaning their virtual team beat every other virtual team in the league) is the top seed of Division A. The team with no wins is the lowest seed in Division 0 (excluding new teams to the league).


The RFTW article is now a little obsolete. The league reserves the right to place a new team in the league in a division besides at the very bottom of O, but will only do that if the team comes from another league and has established times. Most recently they did this when Arora Hills came over from the GGSL. It isn't fun for a new team to the league with 150 swimmers to have a totally uncompetitive season winning every meet by 250. Although that doesn't stop the RMSC Rays.


Ah, true. I was really getting at that Divisonals doesn't count.


Seems like a lot of things don't really count. A team can lose most of its A meets, yet still move up a division? Doesn't seem fair.


DP - or, on the flip side, go undefeated and remain in the same division (happening to us)? Also doesn't make sense, nor is it particularly fair.


Agreed. You win, you move up. You lose, you move down. Virtual team meets seem like a "do over" of the season.


I'm the PP you're quoting and yes, exactly, to the bolded! These dual meets are won and lost by whole teams, not median times.


There is no perfect way to do this. Whether it’s age ups, age outs, 2 vs 3 swimmers per age group, it’s a difficult science to find a better way than the current math to assign divisions. Far from perfect but the best system we have.

I think 2 swimmers is necessary because many teams don’t field a 3rd swimmer in each event

Looking at 2 test cases. Rock Creek dominated J and move up to H. If we said you every division winner moves up 1 by default, they would be in I and too good for I. They would likely dominate again and then move up to a division but it would take a very long time to get in the appropriate division.

While Kenmont has gone undefeated in I, they don’t fair well in the virtual meet against the league as a whole. This means 1 of 3 things
1. They are losing in the virtual meet to teams below division I, like Rock Creek, preventing them from moving up
2. They may be a better team scoring 3 swimmers per meet in the duals vs the 2 in the virtual meet
3. They may have won dual meets in I, but have some division I teams that were better in the aggregate/median across 5 weeks.


The bolded language ensures that teams can't recruit top swimmers in order to jump 2-3 divisions.

With all due respect, none of that matters. Your analysis presumes the validity of using virtual meets (i.e. an algorithm). Virtual meets completely undermine all of the hard work that teams put in during the season. You win or lose as a team. Otherwise, what's the point of keeping score and winning an "A" meet?


Your point is taken. But at this moment Potomac, Bethesda, Rockville, and Stonebridge are all in A or B. I guess it would prevent the next Potomac from making a rapid climb, but the recruiting issue is mostly isolated to the top 2 divisions and MCSL chooses not to enforce its rules even though it knows very well which teams are the offenders.


True, but they won't because everyone knows each other at that level.

For a lower ranked team to move up, it may be necessary for parents to hire a really good coach (going rate for summer swim seems to be $15k-$20k). If a team had an endowment and wealthy alumni (like a university), this could happen and that coach him or herself would be a major draw for swimmers.

Some teams that are moving up have invested in their pool facilities, offering not only a nice pool, but also amenities to encourage more membership and parental involvement. Case in point, Somerset has a really nice "cafe" area with tables, umbrellas, shade, power outlets for laptops, etc... more like a country club pool than a neighborhood pool. Parents like to hang out there with other parents, can do remote work, get a cup of coffee/cold drink, and the like. By comparison, many other pools look like they haven't been updated since the 1980s, with chipped concrete, old furniture, torn/broken umbrellas, lack of shade, gross locker rooms, and the like.


LOL Somerset is not a country club vibe. That’s funny.


+1, and they’re also in Division J so that doesn’t really prove PPs point
Anonymous
Post 07/20/2024 21:31     Subject: Any predictions on divisions next year - MCSL

How did Wildwood move from D to A?
Anonymous
Post 07/20/2024 21:19     Subject: Any predictions on divisions next year - MCSL

Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Eldwick is lucky the divisionals results don’t have an effect on division standings. They might be the only 2025 B division team that didn’t crack 500 today


2025 division assignments are out. Eldwick is relegated two divisions from L to N!


Now that the game is up, Eldwick Troll, I salute you!!!
Anonymous
Post 07/20/2024 20:49     Subject: Any predictions on divisions next year - MCSL

Tallyho A to C and Mill Creek Towne C to G
Anonymous
Post 07/20/2024 19:55     Subject: Any predictions on divisions next year - MCSL

Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:They count with winning the division! The ultimate goal is for a trophy for these kids, not rising to another division!!!!


That's great and all. So the team that wins the division moves up (and gets trophy), but a team that had its a$$ handed to it most of the season also moves up? Part of the victory in winning the division is moving up, while teams that you beat don't move up. Selecting who moves up based on meets that were never swum are wrong.

Anyone know if the virtual meet calculation is a holdover from the covid-19 pandemic?


They’ve been seeding via virtual meets for decades.


Thanks. However, it seems to be a relatively unknown fact among many parents. It's certainly not something posted prominently on the MCSL Divisional standings page (as opposed to a very prominent Division Standings page with points and ranks for meets, carnival and divisionals).

What doesn't seem right is that a team that wins only 1-2 meets out of 5 could still move up a division (while a 3-2 team doesn't), and a team that wins 0 out of 5 could stay in its division.


Then blame your coach. Whenever we move divisions the coaches explain why and how the determination is made. It’s not a secret.


This! I’ve known this since my now 18 yr old was roughly 10. Now you know too. It actually doesn’t mean it’s not still fun to win dual meets it is! It’s fun to win Relays, go to All Stars, or just race your teammate or your own PR. The division doesn’t matter. My kids have competed in Divisions A-J over the years. It’s all fun and it’s a bit silly to get hung up on How the Divisions are assigned. . .