Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm feeling good PA is going to Fetterman. WI could go to Barnes. GA looks like it will go to run-off. Don't see Kelly losing. NV is still big question. No results yet from there.

Everything I have read has said that NV will go R. I also think that PA will go to Fetterman.

Yeah, I'm worried about NV. She was polling well behind.

Don't forget that many of the races are only including in-person voting. The mail-in vote was historic in quantity and tends to lean Democratic by almost 2/1. Any race that is close can be turned once the mail-in votes are counted.

This is why Republicans want the counting stopped. They tend to do best with walk-in voters and poorly with mail-in voters. And most states cannot even start to count mail-in votes until election night.

Anonymous wrote:From Nate Cohn on Twitter:
Fetterman outrunning Biden just about everywhere in Pennsylvania. Our estimate now leans Democratic

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1590186780854456320

I’m from Allegheny County in PA. Both my parents voted there. They have nothing against Oz but they say a lot of people feel like he’s not a real Pennsylvanian. Also Oprah endorsed Fetterman, so that definitely hurt Oz.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
Sorry, but midterms with a Democratic President are EXPECTED to go Republican. The House and Senate are supposed to go red.

So if it's close...

... that means Republicans have under-performed, because of abortion and their 2020 election denial.

And the only reason Democrats have not made history by retaining both chambers, or one, is because of global affairs (war in Ukraine and subsequent inflation). Not one head of state can reverse inflation by themselves. If the US had not lifted a finger, Ukraine would still not be producing grain this year and there would still be energy sanctions imposed on Russia.

We lost but it’s a close loss so we won is a hell of a message.

Historically so far, Dems have way outpaced expectations. Also, we don't know which way things will go when the close races are called.

If Republicans see this as anything other than a major slap down on abortion, they are deluding themselves.

They will pretend it's a huge victory, but privately they've already gotten the message on abortion.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm feeling good PA is going to Fetterman. WI could go to Barnes. GA looks like it will go to run-off. Don't see Kelly losing. NV is still big question. No results yet from there.

This right here. (Although I think Barnes may lose- would love to get the analytics from the WI geek on whether dem counties have been tallied and the role of mail ins, bc Barnes is trailing)

City of Milwaukee is going to be a few more hours. They always take a LONG time to count the mail ins. City of Milwaukee is very very democratic. Dane County (Madison) -- bluest and 2nd most populated county in state -- is pretty much all in. There's a few itty bitty rural counties that aren't in at all yet that will go heavy for Johnson.

Remember Wisconsin can't count mail ins until the polls close so much of what's left will be mail ins.

Anonymous wrote:I'm feeling good PA is going to Fetterman. WI could go to Barnes. GA looks like it will go to run-off. Don't see Kelly losing. NV is still big question. No results yet from there.

Everything I have read has said that NV will go R. I also think that PA will go to Fetterman.

Anonymous wrote:The Dems are likely to retain the Senate.
There is an outside chance they hold the House.

Those are not a red wave, either way.

It should have been a red wave. Instead, it's a red tinkle. People have been saying this for months. Just because people on DCUM are super disappointed that the House is going Republican (and the Senate too perhaps), it doesn't change the fact that the Republican party is handicapped when it shouldn't be handicapped. Obviously, it's weighed down by Trump and his many shenanigans. And also, that Supreme Court abortion debacle. What should have been a resounding Republican victory will turn out to be a laborious and bruising limp over the finish line.

This does NOT bode well for the 2024 election from the Republican point of view.

Anonymous wrote:I'm feeling good PA is going to Fetterman. WI could go to Barnes. GA looks like it will go to run-off. Don't see Kelly losing. NV is still big question. No results yet from there.

This right here. (Although I think Barnes may lose- would love to get the analytics from the WI geek on whether dem counties have been tallied and the role of mail ins, bc Barnes is trailing)

Patty Murray (D) in Washington and Ron Wyden (D) in Oregon both re-elected

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
Sorry, but midterms with a Democratic President are EXPECTED to go Republican. The House and Senate are supposed to go red.

So if it's close...

... that means Republicans have under-performed, because of abortion and their 2020 election denial.

And the only reason Democrats have not made history by retaining both chambers, or one, is because of global affairs (war in Ukraine and subsequent inflation). Not one head of state can reverse inflation by themselves. If the US had not lifted a finger, Ukraine would still not be producing grain this year and there would still be energy sanctions imposed on Russia.

We lost but it’s a close loss so we won is a hell of a message.

Historically so far, Dems have way outpaced expectations. Also, we don't know which way things will go when the close races are called.

If Republicans see this as anything other than a major slap down on abortion, they are deluding themselves.

Anonymous wrote:I'm feeling good PA is going to Fetterman. WI could go to Barnes. GA looks like it will go to run-off. Don't see Kelly losing. NV is still big question. No results yet from there.

There are enpugh votes outstanding that Warnock could avoid a run-off.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
Sorry, but midterms with a Democratic President are EXPECTED to go Republican. The House and Senate are supposed to go red.

So if it's close...

... that means Republicans have under-performed, because of abortion and their 2020 election denial.

And the only reason Democrats have not made history by retaining both chambers, or one, is because of global affairs (war in Ukraine and subsequent inflation). Not one head of state can reverse inflation by themselves. If the US had not lifted a finger, Ukraine would still not be producing grain this year and there would still be energy sanctions imposed on Russia.

We lost but it’s a close loss so we won is a hell of a message.

I'm not saying Democrats won. I'm a foreigner, so *I* am winning nothing
My point is that Democrats have been hurt by outside conjuncture, not an integral weakness in their own ranks.
Republicans have been hurt by inner weaknesses.

In my opinion and because of the above, Democrats will rebound better than Republicans.

The Dems are likely to retain the Senate.
There is an outside chance they hold the House.

Those are not a red wave, either way.

VA-2 flips from D to R.

Anonymous wrote:
Sorry, but midterms with a Democratic President are EXPECTED to go Republican. The House and Senate are supposed to go red.

So if it's close...

... that means Republicans have under-performed, because of abortion and their 2020 election denial.

And the only reason Democrats have not made history by retaining both chambers, or one, is because of global affairs (war in Ukraine and subsequent inflation). Not one head of state can reverse inflation by themselves. If the US had not lifted a finger, Ukraine would still not be producing grain this year and there would still be energy sanctions imposed on Russia.

We lost but it’s a close loss so we won is a hell of a message.