Anonymous
08/02/2022 23:31
Subject: Elrich Now in the Lead
Anonymous wrote:For anyone wondering how any of this is possible there are two words you should not forget: Hans Riemer.
Forgive my simplemindedness but how do we know Hans took more votes from Blair?
Anonymous
08/02/2022 23:09
Subject: Elrich Now in the Lead
For anyone wondering how any of this is possible there are two words you should not forget: Hans Riemer.
Anonymous
08/02/2022 23:02
Subject: Elrich Now in the Lead
Anonymous wrote:Elrich leading by 173.
That's nothing with 7,000 provisional ballots left to count. Blair just needs 2 percentage points more than Elrich to win. Or Elrich just needs the to get the same number of votes as Blair to win. This is anybody's race.
Anonymous
08/02/2022 22:54
Subject: Re:Elrich Now in the Lead
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Here's what I don't understand - how has Marc Elrich gotten MORE of the share of votes from 2018? In 2018, he won (barely) with 29%, and now he has over 39%? All I hear about is people who have always hated Elrich of people who voted for him last time but didn't this time. So how has he gotten MORE votes? Who are these people voting for him?
Incumbency/name recognition
For me it was because I appreciated he was willing to continue to be responsible about COVID despite receiving death threats
Anonymous
08/02/2022 22:52
Subject: Elrich Now in the Lead
Elrich leading by 173.
Anonymous
08/02/2022 21:45
Subject: Re:Elrich Now in the Lead
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Here's what I don't understand - how has Marc Elrich gotten MORE of the share of votes from 2018? In 2018, he won (barely) with 29%, and now he has over 39%? All I hear about is people who have always hated Elrich of people who voted for him last time but didn't this time. So how has he gotten MORE votes? Who are these people voting for him?
Incumbency/name recognition
+1. Plus it was a very crowded field last time, those voters had to go somewhere.
Any read in where we are with the vote counting? Any chance it will swing back in Blair’s favor again or is this where Elrich starts to pull away?
It might swing back. But I take nothing for granted.
If you look at what was counted yesterday based on Council districts, there were larger percentages of votes from districts 4 and 6. These didn't seem to favor Elrich, whose percentage holds close to 39-40% each day. But Riemer did better the past few days. And that ate into Blair's % of votes.
For example, District 4 (Mink) has averaged about 19.2% of the mail-in votes. Yesterday, it averaged 23%. So if they are counting more downcounty votes, that's not really favoring Elrich, but it is hurting Blair.
So today and tomorrow are critical. If they are more balanced across the county, Blair possibly has a shot. If they favor upcounty and west county a bit more, Blair has a good possibility of winning. Provisionals are counted on Friday, and I think they will significantly favor Blair. The question is whether that advantage is enough to overcome what Elrich has gotten in the past few days.
Thing is though, downcounty just votes more. A higher % of downcounty ballots does not necessarily mean they are counting them first and more upcounty ballots are left. More than likely, there are just more downcounty ballots, period.
Anonymous
08/02/2022 21:27
Subject: Re:Elrich Now in the Lead
Anonymous wrote:Here's what I don't understand - how has Marc Elrich gotten MORE of the share of votes from 2018? In 2018, he won (barely) with 29%, and now he has over 39%? All I hear about is people who have always hated Elrich of people who voted for him last time but didn't this time. So how has he gotten MORE votes? Who are these people voting for him?
Those of us who appreciate how he handled COVID. And possibly those of us who are concerned that Blair might not have our best interests at heart.
One question that I asked myself was: Based on what I know about Blair, do I wish he had been in charge during a pandemic, facing a new disease, with a president who is a batshit crazy criminal? I feel very lucky to have had Hogan and Elrich. Although I didn’t always agree with them, I felt that they each took the well-being of all of us very seriously. In the next four years, we could have a governor with limited political experience and an unknown president—including some unpalatable (to me, at least) possible options. In a crisis, I’d prefer the known entity that is Elrich vs Businessman Blair between me and uncertainties and chaos.
Anonymous
08/02/2022 20:43
Subject: Re:Elrich Now in the Lead
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Here's what I don't understand - how has Marc Elrich gotten MORE of the share of votes from 2018? In 2018, he won (barely) with 29%, and now he has over 39%? All I hear about is people who have always hated Elrich of people who voted for him last time but didn't this time. So how has he gotten MORE votes? Who are these people voting for him?
Incumbency/name recognition
+1. Plus it was a very crowded field last time, those voters had to go somewhere.
Any read in where we are with the vote counting? Any chance it will swing back in Blair’s favor again or is this where Elrich starts to pull away?
It might swing back. But I take nothing for granted.
If you look at what was counted yesterday based on Council districts, there were larger percentages of votes from districts 4 and 6. These didn't seem to favor Elrich, whose percentage holds close to 39-40% each day. But Riemer did better the past few days. And that ate into Blair's % of votes.
For example, District 4 (Mink) has averaged about 19.2% of the mail-in votes. Yesterday, it averaged 23%. So if they are counting more downcounty votes, that's not really favoring Elrich, but it is hurting Blair.
So today and tomorrow are critical. If they are more balanced across the county, Blair possibly has a shot. If they favor upcounty and west county a bit more, Blair has a good possibility of winning. Provisionals are counted on Friday, and I think they will significantly favor Blair. The question is whether that advantage is enough to overcome what Elrich has gotten in the past few days.
Anonymous
08/02/2022 20:29
Subject: Re:Elrich Now in the Lead
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Here's what I don't understand - how has Marc Elrich gotten MORE of the share of votes from 2018? In 2018, he won (barely) with 29%, and now he has over 39%? All I hear about is people who have always hated Elrich of people who voted for him last time but didn't this time. So how has he gotten MORE votes? Who are these people voting for him?
Incumbency/name recognition
It’s the seniors. He is winning because of the mail in ballots. Seniors are more likely to use mail ballots and more likely to vote for Elrich because they liked his strict COVID measures
Anonymous
08/02/2022 16:44
Subject: Re:Elrich Now in the Lead
Anonymous wrote:Here's what I don't understand - how has Marc Elrich gotten MORE of the share of votes from 2018? In 2018, he won (barely) with 29%, and now he has over 39%? All I hear about is people who have always hated Elrich of people who voted for him last time but didn't this time. So how has he gotten MORE votes? Who are these people voting for him?
There were 6 people in 2018. 4 people in 2022 -- and one of them is scraping the bottom of the barrel on votes. I didn't even know a 4th candidate was running until I saw the ballot.
Anonymous
08/02/2022 15:00
Subject: Re:Elrich Now in the Lead
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Here's what I don't understand - how has Marc Elrich gotten MORE of the share of votes from 2018? In 2018, he won (barely) with 29%, and now he has over 39%? All I hear about is people who have always hated Elrich of people who voted for him last time but didn't this time. So how has he gotten MORE votes? Who are these people voting for him?
Incumbency/name recognition
+1. Plus it was a very crowded field last time, those voters had to go somewhere.
Any read in where we are with the vote counting? Any chance it will swing back in Blair’s favor again or is this where Elrich starts to pull away?
Anonymous
08/02/2022 14:04
Subject: Re:Elrich Now in the Lead
Anonymous wrote:Here's what I don't understand - how has Marc Elrich gotten MORE of the share of votes from 2018? In 2018, he won (barely) with 29%, and now he has over 39%? All I hear about is people who have always hated Elrich of people who voted for him last time but didn't this time. So how has he gotten MORE votes? Who are these people voting for him?
Incumbency/name recognition
Anonymous
08/02/2022 13:49
Subject: Elrich Now in the Lead
Anonymous wrote:Elric is the based mayor we've had and I'm rooting for him!
I hope Elrich wins as mayor, too, and Blair as County Executive
Anonymous
08/02/2022 13:47
Subject: Elrich Now in the Lead
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Can Blair run in the general as an independent? I think with Reimer out he would clean everyone's clock.
No. Maryland has a sore loser law.
I wonder why he didn’t just run as an independent and skip the primary. Did he not anticipate the anti-Elrich vote getting split?
Perhaps he actually identifies as a democrat. If he switched now there would be no going back again.
Because we are in a two party system and dumb people just vote for the person with D without actually thinking. Being an "I" puts you at an instant disadvantage.
Anonymous
08/02/2022 13:46
Subject: Elrich Now in the Lead
Elric is the based mayor we've had and I'm rooting for him!