Anonymous
08/19/2021 13:30
Subject: Re:The cars I looked at pre Covid are $8-10k more now
Anonymous wrote:OP, I'm looking for the same vehicle as you (3rd row under 40), what have you looked at?
Honda pilot
Anonymous
08/19/2021 13:28
Subject: The cars I looked at pre Covid are $8-10k more now
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Wait til November or later, and prices will start to drop.
Sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but this chip shortage is going to last a lot longer than everyone originally thought. Toyota just announced today that they are cutting production volume by 40% for September because the chips simply don't exist. A 40% cut in supply is insane. It is going to take at least 9 to 12 months for supply to improve noticeably; these issues won't be resolved overnight and it may actually be worse in November. Unlike normal years where November is when "we're clearing out all the 2018s to make room for the incoming 2019s", there will be no surplus of leftover 2021s by November 2021.
I also think we'll never again see the deep discounting that used to occur in the new car market. Automakers have figured out that consumers are willing to pay MSRP or very close to it. Deep discounts were used to "move" massive quantities of inventory that were sitting on packed lots. Used to be able to get $10k off higher-trim pickups. The new business model when the chip crisis resolves will be to keep a thinner inventory on lots, shift more buyers to custom order vehicles at ~MSRP or maybe ~3% off, and (for the automakers) stop overproducing. At that point, the only deep discounts will be on demo/service loaners or models that nobody wants.
I mean, sure, but is that generalizable to a time in which supply is not artificially constrained? If Honda wants to reduce production to minimize the possibility of oversupply at the end of the year, Toyota will just make more cars.
I'll caveat this as just speculation since it isn't my specific area of subject matter expertise, but I would suspect that the old paradigm was more profitable for automakers. They were free to cut production to minimize the probability of end-of-year oversupply, but they didn't. I suspect that their revenue management strategies dictated that decision. In any event, isn't the risk of oversupply largely borne by dealerships anyway?
Anonymous
08/19/2021 11:43
Subject: The cars I looked at pre Covid are $8-10k more now
Anonymous wrote:Wait til November or later, and prices will start to drop.
Sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but this chip shortage is going to last a lot longer than everyone originally thought. Toyota just announced today that they are cutting production volume by 40% for September because the chips simply don't exist. A 40% cut in supply is insane. It is going to take at least 9 to 12 months for supply to improve noticeably; these issues won't be resolved overnight and it may actually be worse in November. Unlike normal years where November is when "we're clearing out all the 2018s to make room for the incoming 2019s", there will be no surplus of leftover 2021s by November 2021.
I also think we'll never again see the deep discounting that used to occur in the new car market. Automakers have figured out that consumers are willing to pay MSRP or very close to it. Deep discounts were used to "move" massive quantities of inventory that were sitting on packed lots. Used to be able to get $10k off higher-trim pickups. The new business model when the chip crisis resolves will be to keep a thinner inventory on lots, shift more buyers to custom order vehicles at ~MSRP or maybe ~3% off, and (for the automakers) stop overproducing. At that point, the only deep discounts will be on demo/service loaners or models that nobody wants.
Anonymous
08/18/2021 22:31
Subject: The cars I looked at pre Covid are $8-10k more now
My husband bought a new Ford F-250 in 2017; he sold it for more than he paid for it May. Went with a new Honda Pilot for a fraction of the price.
Anonymous
08/18/2021 22:26
Subject: The cars I looked at pre Covid are $8-10k more now
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:New car supply chains disrupted by chip shortages, driving up used.
+1
The chip shortage is disrupting supply, but demand hasn't changed all that much.
This. Wait til November or later, and prices will start to drop. If you're desperate for a new car now, you will pay a higher price.
Anonymous
08/18/2021 22:24
Subject: The cars I looked at pre Covid are $8-10k more now
Anonymous wrote:BTW my dealer told me he STOPPED taking orders for the 2023 Hummer. Not enough inventory and 2024 is when he will have them for folks who did get in list.
The Ford Bronco, Toyota Tacoma, Toyota Corolla, Chevy Corvette also hard to locate.
Four door larger American sedans are somewhat easier to get so that is best choice if can’t wait
Yeah some Toyota dealerships are doing lotteries now.
Anonymous
08/18/2021 22:24
Subject: The cars I looked at pre Covid are $8-10k more now
Anonymous wrote:I would do anything possible to avoid buying a car in the next 6 to 12 months.
Understandable that some have no choice (e.g. engine failure or car totaled in accident), but many could stretch their old car along for another year and put off buying.
Many buying now will end up upside down with negative equity for several years. Especially those who paid markup above MSRP...yeah Janice in 2 years your loan on that Telluride you paid $5k over sticker for is going to be way underwater.
If I had to jump into the pool righ now I would either do a 2 year lease of a low cost car, or use one of the lease swapping websites to take over someone else's lease with a year or so remaining on it. Use that to ride out the market craziness.
Yep just riding it out and babying my current car until the one I want is available with the specs I like and no absurd chip markup.
Anonymous
08/18/2021 22:21
Subject: The cars I looked at pre Covid are $8-10k more now
I’m waiting. I want a Camry TRD and they’re hard to get so I’m just waiting another year or two to buy.
Anonymous
08/18/2021 21:57
Subject: The cars I looked at pre Covid are $8-10k more now
Anonymous wrote:I would do anything possible to avoid buying a car in the next 6 to 12 months.
Understandable that some have no choice (e.g. engine failure or car totaled in accident), but many could stretch their old car along for another year and put off buying.
Many buying now will end up upside down with negative equity for several years. Especially those who paid markup above MSRP...yeah Janice in 2 years your loan on that Telluride you paid $5k over sticker for is going to be way underwater.
If I had to jump into the pool righ now I would either do a 2 year lease of a low cost car, or use one of the lease swapping websites to take over someone else's lease with a year or so remaining on it. Use that to ride out the market craziness.
OP here. Yeah this is where we landed. Our car needs probably $500-1000 of maintenance/wear items that we were going to skip if we traded in, but we will just do them and kick the fan down the road. Nothing wrong with the car otherwise.
Anonymous
08/18/2021 12:12
Subject: The cars I looked at pre Covid are $8-10k more now
I would do anything possible to avoid buying a car in the next 6 to 12 months.
Understandable that some have no choice (e.g. engine failure or car totaled in accident), but many could stretch their old car along for another year and put off buying.
Many buying now will end up upside down with negative equity for several years. Especially those who paid markup above MSRP...yeah Janice in 2 years your loan on that Telluride you paid $5k over sticker for is going to be way underwater.
If I had to jump into the pool righ now I would either do a 2 year lease of a low cost car, or use one of the lease swapping websites to take over someone else's lease with a year or so remaining on it. Use that to ride out the market craziness.
Understandable that some have no choice (e.g. engine failure or car totaled in accident), but many could stretch their old car along for another year and put off buying.
Many buying now will end up upside down with negative equity for several years. Especially those who paid markup above MSRP...yeah Janice in 2 years your loan on that Telluride you paid $5k over sticker for is going to be way underwater.
If I had to jump into the pool righ now I would either do a 2 year lease of a low cost car, or use one of the lease swapping websites to take over someone else's lease with a year or so remaining on it. Use that to ride out the market craziness.
Anonymous
08/18/2021 10:09
Subject: The cars I looked at pre Covid are $8-10k more now
BTW my dealer told me he STOPPED taking orders for the 2023 Hummer. Not enough inventory and 2024 is when he will have them for folks who did get in list.
The Ford Bronco, Toyota Tacoma, Toyota Corolla, Chevy Corvette also hard to locate.
Four door larger American sedans are somewhat easier to get so that is best choice if can’t wait
The Ford Bronco, Toyota Tacoma, Toyota Corolla, Chevy Corvette also hard to locate.
Four door larger American sedans are somewhat easier to get so that is best choice if can’t wait
Anonymous
08/18/2021 10:05
Subject: The cars I looked at pre Covid are $8-10k more now
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Don't buy a used SUV, problem solved.
This. If you don't mind a mid-range sedan, there are still normal deals to be had. My buddy got a used Kia sedan for a great price earlier this year at Fitzgerald.
Ironically, I've seen a lot of dealer incentives to move the newest Corvettes. They are just not moving off the lot. I wish I had a garage, I would buy one!
The 2021 corvettes are sold out
Anonymous
08/18/2021 10:04
Subject: Re:The cars I looked at pre Covid are $8-10k more now
Welcome to inflation, we all knew it was coming 
Anonymous
08/18/2021 10:04
Subject: The cars I looked at pre Covid are $8-10k more now
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Because they need/want a new vehicle.
Same as you.
Nope - I’m waiting. I’m not getting screwed with my pants on.
+1. If you can, wait. A little bit of patience will save you thousands of dollars. Same was true of housing. Prices are dropping and market is leveling. Anyone who panicked and bought last year is probably regretting that now.
Chip shortage won’t be resolved until at least 2022, probably closer to the end of that year.
Anonymous
08/18/2021 10:02
Subject: The cars I looked at pre Covid are $8-10k more now
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Ironically, I've seen a lot of dealer incentives to move the newest Corvettes. They are just not moving off the lot. I wish I had a garage, I would buy one!
This is the most inaccurate claim about the state of the car sales market I’ve ever read. There are absolutely zero dealers in the world selling the C8 Corvettes under MSRP. Have to laugh at “they are just not moving off the lot.” Please provide a link to this magical dealer just sitting on discounted C8 Corvettes…
You must either A) think the Camaro is a Corvette, or B) see a dealer who MARKED UP a new Corvette by $20,000 and then offered a $1,500 “incentive” off that marked up price.