Anonymous
08/15/2021 09:52
Subject: "Without mitigation, they predict that 80% of elementary students will be infected within 2 months"
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:https://twitter.com/denise_dewald/status/1426318478861013001?s=19
I'm not really comforted by "the kids will probably be ok" arguments. Why is that being accepted??
Because DMV schools are using mitigation, like masks and teacher vaccination/testing. Our kids will be fine.
Kids in Texas, on the other hand, are being forced to play Russian roulette for politics.
And Florida, and Arizona, and SC, and TN, and...
Millions and millions of children.
Anonymous
08/15/2021 09:50
Subject: "Without mitigation, they predict that 80% of elementary students will be infected within 2 months"
Anonymous wrote:Because most parents think they and their kids are invincible and it will not happen to them.
Because my children are not lab rats.
Anonymous
08/15/2021 09:48
Subject: "Without mitigation, they predict that 80% of elementary students will be infected within 2 months"
Anonymous wrote:Um... We have mitigation.
masks all around.
Teachers who aren't vaccinated being tested weekly.
Take your hysteria to the exurbs.
This.
However, I also fully expect my kids to get it by Christmas. I just pray it’s mild.
Anonymous
08/15/2021 09:48
Subject: "Without mitigation, they predict that 80% of elementary students will be infected within 2 months"
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:because we have mitigation
and because this model does not correspond to actual evidence from UK, where school rates fell during Delta.
https://fortune.com/2021/08/12/as-delta-infections-spiked-covid-cases-in-schools-actually-fell-a-lesson-from-england/
We don’t have real mitigation. Cloth and surgical masks are useless Kleenex against the transmissibility of Delta and “distancing when possible” is a copout and a joke.
P.S, We’re not the UK, no matter how many times you reference them, and other countries ahead of us on the Delta curve have not had the same results the UK did. Oh, and the UK’s cases are climbing again, after a brief dip.
UK schools are closed right now.
The UK school mitigation plan was basically quarantining cases. We've got that here. And we've got more mitigation as well.
My kids were in a full classroom (FCPS) for the last part of last school year. No transmission. They'll be in a full classroom this year too.
Not for long!
There wasn't "no transmission" that's ridiculous.
There was no transmission in schools. That's not ridiculous. It's seriously good news.
exactly. that’s why I question this study - it assumes an r4 in school, when everything I’ve read indicates that r is lower in schools.
Anonymous
08/15/2021 09:47
Subject: "Without mitigation, they predict that 80% of elementary students will be infected within 2 months"
Anonymous wrote:https://twitter.com/denise_dewald/status/1426318478861013001?s=19
I'm not really comforted by "the kids will probably be ok" arguments. Why is that being accepted??
Because DMV schools are using mitigation, like masks and teacher vaccination/testing. Our kids will be fine.
Kids in Texas, on the other hand, are being forced to play Russian roulette for politics.
Anonymous
08/15/2021 09:28
Subject: "Without mitigation, they predict that 80% of elementary students will be infected within 2 months"
Anonymous wrote:Because most parents think they and their kids are invincible and it will not happen to them.
No. Because we are considering the tradeoffs of non-deadly but certain impacts against extremely bad but extremely rare impacts. We did 75% of K virtual, and unfortunately we KNOW it was tough on our kid socially and emotionally (blame us as parents for not providing a better home environment if you want, but making decisions based on our actual capabilities rather than the ideal is part of parenting). Death from covid would be unspeakably worse but is also much much much less likely. This is worse than, but qualitatively the same as, decisions we make constantly around the RSV and day care, riding in cars, etc.
How does long covid compare with a third year of isolation and lost school time? Honestly that's hard to say given limited info on long covid in kids, but it's not obviously that much worse.
If we had a clear timeline for EUAs under 12 and could delay school maybe 2 months I'd be ok with that, but indefinite virtual learning has real costs too. I think people minimizing two years of this on kids are being a little cruel too.
Anonymous
08/15/2021 09:08
Subject: Re:"Without mitigation, they predict that 80% of elementary students will be infected within 2 months"
People who post these scare-monger if threads with headlines that don’t make sense or are misleading (as many PPs have pointed out, we have many mitigation strategies in place, including mandatory vaccines for adults, masks for all, quarantines for outbreaks, social distancing), should have to explain what Plan B is.
Okay, say we close schools preemptively again because of reports like this, instead of trying mitigation and seeing that can enable us to keep schools open. Then what? How do we make sure working families have childcare? It’s not like last year when employers were understanding and more people were WFH. Now a lot of parents are back in offices and employers are explicitly requiring them to have childcare. Obviously some people can afford that but many of us can’t. Also, it’s unrealistic that everyone’s hiring a nanny or tutor, right? Which means kids will be going into group care, which is … just like school in terms of Covid risk! Plus we also still face the problems of disparate impact in learning loss, pulling lowers SES kids further and further behind. Plus the social implications for kids, which are real and get worse daily.
So fine, post these stupid context-less headlines and try to freak everyone out. But you have to explain what your alternative is then. “Close schools” is what we have been doing. Not sure if you noticed, but it has not worked. So what’s YOUR plan?
Okay, say we close schools preemptively again because of reports like this, instead of trying mitigation and seeing that can enable us to keep schools open. Then what? How do we make sure working families have childcare? It’s not like last year when employers were understanding and more people were WFH. Now a lot of parents are back in offices and employers are explicitly requiring them to have childcare. Obviously some people can afford that but many of us can’t. Also, it’s unrealistic that everyone’s hiring a nanny or tutor, right? Which means kids will be going into group care, which is … just like school in terms of Covid risk! Plus we also still face the problems of disparate impact in learning loss, pulling lowers SES kids further and further behind. Plus the social implications for kids, which are real and get worse daily.
So fine, post these stupid context-less headlines and try to freak everyone out. But you have to explain what your alternative is then. “Close schools” is what we have been doing. Not sure if you noticed, but it has not worked. So what’s YOUR plan?
Anonymous
08/15/2021 09:01
Subject: "Without mitigation, they predict that 80% of elementary students will be infected within 2 months"
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:delta is only 50% more transmissible than the variant circulating last year when vaccination rates were low and our school was back at around 2/3 the total student body, with normal class sizes. There were 2 cases and zero spread in school afaik. I don’t think this model is correct.
Covid had started to slow down. Its now picking up and people are not being careful anymore. How many kids were at your school? How many in class? Public or private? We can see from schools open now its an issue.
DP
We were fairly close in April-June. I’m in Fairfax County and our school had about 80% in-person. My ES grade level had at least 112 of 139 return (a few more came in after that) which gave us class sizes in the low 20s.
Anonymous
08/15/2021 08:57
Subject: "Without mitigation, they predict that 80% of elementary students will be infected within 2 months"
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:because we have mitigation
and because this model does not correspond to actual evidence from UK, where school rates fell during Delta.
https://fortune.com/2021/08/12/as-delta-infections-spiked-covid-cases-in-schools-actually-fell-a-lesson-from-england/
We don’t have real mitigation. Cloth and surgical masks are useless Kleenex against the transmissibility of Delta and “distancing when possible” is a copout and a joke.
P.S, We’re not the UK, no matter how many times you reference them, and other countries ahead of us on the Delta curve have not had the same results the UK did. Oh, and the UK’s cases are climbing again, after a brief dip.
UK schools are closed right now.
The UK school mitigation plan was basically quarantining cases. We've got that here. And we've got more mitigation as well.
My kids were in a full classroom (FCPS) for the last part of last school year. No transmission. They'll be in a full classroom this year too.
Not for long!
There wasn't "no transmission" that's ridiculous.
There was no transmission in schools. That's not ridiculous. It's seriously good news.
Anonymous
08/15/2021 08:57
Subject: "Without mitigation, they predict that 80% of elementary students will be infected within 2 months"
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:because we have mitigation
and because this model does not correspond to actual evidence from UK, where school rates fell during Delta.
https://fortune.com/2021/08/12/as-delta-infections-spiked-covid-cases-in-schools-actually-fell-a-lesson-from-england/
We don’t have real mitigation. Cloth and surgical masks are useless Kleenex against the transmissibility of Delta and “distancing when possible” is a copout and a joke.
P.S, We’re not the UK, no matter how many times you reference them, and other countries ahead of us on the Delta curve have not had the same results the UK did. Oh, and the UK’s cases are climbing again, after a brief dip.
UK schools are closed right now.
The UK school mitigation plan was basically quarantining cases. We've got that here. And we've got more mitigation as well.
My kids were in a full classroom (FCPS) for the last part of last school year. No transmission. They'll be in a full classroom this year too.
Not for long!
There wasn't "no transmission" that's ridiculous.
Not ridiculous. My kids’ K-8 school was open all last year. There were a handful of individual cases, but no in-school transmission at all.
Anonymous
08/15/2021 08:54
Subject: "Without mitigation, they predict that 80% of elementary students will be infected within 2 months"
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:because we have mitigation
and because this model does not correspond to actual evidence from UK, where school rates fell during Delta.
https://fortune.com/2021/08/12/as-delta-infections-spiked-covid-cases-in-schools-actually-fell-a-lesson-from-england/
We don’t have real mitigation. Cloth and surgical masks are useless Kleenex against the transmissibility of Delta and “distancing when possible” is a copout and a joke.
P.S, We’re not the UK, no matter how many times you reference them, and other countries ahead of us on the Delta curve have not had the same results the UK did. Oh, and the UK’s cases are climbing again, after a brief dip.
UK schools are closed right now.
The UK school mitigation plan was basically quarantining cases. We've got that here. And we've got more mitigation as well.
My kids were in a full classroom (FCPS) for the last part of last school year. No transmission. They'll be in a full classroom this year too.
Not for long!
There wasn't "no transmission" that's ridiculous.
Anonymous
08/15/2021 08:52
Subject: "Without mitigation, they predict that 80% of elementary students will be infected within 2 months"
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:because we have mitigation
and because this model does not correspond to actual evidence from UK, where school rates fell during Delta.
https://fortune.com/2021/08/12/as-delta-infections-spiked-covid-cases-in-schools-actually-fell-a-lesson-from-england/
We don’t have real mitigation. Cloth and surgical masks are useless Kleenex against the transmissibility of Delta and “distancing when possible” is a copout and a joke.
P.S, We’re not the UK, no matter how many times you reference them, and other countries ahead of us on the Delta curve have not had the same results the UK did. Oh, and the UK’s cases are climbing again, after a brief dip.
UK schools are closed right now.
The UK school mitigation plan was basically quarantining cases. We've got that here. And we've got more mitigation as well.
My kids were in a full classroom (FCPS) for the last part of last school year. No transmission. They'll be in a full classroom this year too.
Not for long!
Anonymous
08/15/2021 08:51
Subject: "Without mitigation, they predict that 80% of elementary students will be infected within 2 months"
Anonymous wrote:https://twitter.com/denise_dewald/status/1426318478861013001?s=19
I'm not really comforted by "the kids will probably be ok" arguments. Why is that being accepted??
Because we had closed schools for a year and we're just not doing it anymore. We have no idea now when this will be over.
Anonymous
08/15/2021 08:49
Subject: "Without mitigation, they predict that 80% of elementary students will be infected within 2 months"
I guess we will reach herd immunity after all.
Anonymous
08/15/2021 08:05
Subject: "Without mitigation, they predict that 80% of elementary students will be infected within 2 months"
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:because we have mitigation
and because this model does not correspond to actual evidence from UK, where school rates fell during Delta.
https://fortune.com/2021/08/12/as-delta-infections-spiked-covid-cases-in-schools-actually-fell-a-lesson-from-england/
We don’t have real mitigation. Cloth and surgical masks are useless Kleenex against the transmissibility of Delta and “distancing when possible” is a copout and a joke.
P.S, We’re not the UK, no matter how many times you reference them, and other countries ahead of us on the Delta curve have not had the same results the UK did. Oh, and the UK’s cases are climbing again, after a brief dip.
UK schools are closed right now.
The UK school mitigation plan was basically quarantining cases. We've got that here. And we've got more mitigation as well.
My kids were in a full classroom (FCPS) for the last part of last school year. No transmission. They'll be in a full classroom this year too.