I am in Fairfax and a house just went 200K over asking. it is not a great house but it is in a desirable pyramid. I dob't think it has burst everywhere.

No bubble. Every good listing is getting at least 5 offers and which is good enough to keep the prices up. I dont think that we can see bubble popping up unless interest rates are 5 percent- Housing market will definitely crash.

Bubbles don’t have to pop. For example in 1989-1991 was brief downturn in home prices. Nothing like 2008. Was combo hangover stock market crash if 1987, high mortgage rates and the savings and loan crisis dumped a lot of bank owned properties onto market.

Prices started slowly rising in 1992 pretty much right up to 2007 they rise every year on paper.

However inflation adjusted home prices bottomed on 1996.

The quirk couple happen again. Everyone is happy!!’ Let’s say home prices rose 2 percent a year next five years but inflation is 4 percent. Houses can rise in price and become more affordable and current homeowners still happy as paying down mortgage while prices rise 2 percent a year.

Maybe that is what Fed is attempting!!!

Anonymous wrote:This is awesome. I've always wanted to live in a million dollar house and at the current rate of appreciation, I'm only a couple weeks away from being there. Up $20k in 30 days baby! Yeehaw

Appreciation is coming down... I don't think we'll see much if any for the remainder of the year, in fact I expect the normal price moderation we see in the second half of the year. Next spring will be the test.

This is awesome. I've always wanted to live in a million dollar house and at the current rate of appreciation, I'm only a couple weeks away from being there. Up $20k in 30 days baby! Yeehaw

Well clearly OP lives in Kansas.

I think a lot of buyers from the spring would rather travel, which they haven’t been able to do in a year, than stick around losing bids on terrible houses to all cash buyers.

We were looking and are thinking we are leaning towards giving up because everything that is coming online is like the second string inventory. But the one bright spot is I have a family member that was able to finally unload their unsellable house that backs to a highway.

Anonymous wrote:I’m not even sure if price reductions are an indicator if people are shooting for the moon while listing.

This.

Just because things are cooling off does not mean that there was a bubble. The end of a bubble necessitates a crash. There is no crash and will not be one.

One would hope a realtor would know this.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Maryland sales up 46% YoY and inventory down 56% YoY.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2021/06/maryland-real-estate-in-may-sales-up-46.html?m=1

In May. We’re talking about June.

Inventory is not up in June, correct? And the current level of inventory is historically low.

Price reductions occurring to move problem inventory that sat through a market where everything sold but that house is not really an indicator of much.

People are taking the summer off. Let’s see what happens come Labor Day.

Every zip code I track active inventory is up, but this is not really that unusual going into summer. We sometimes see a slight peak into September. Contracts are dropping fast though, which is totally normal.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Maryland sales up 46% YoY and inventory down 56% YoY.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2021/06/maryland-real-estate-in-may-sales-up-46.html?m=1

In May. We’re talking about June.

Inventory is not up in June, correct? And the current level of inventory is historically low.

Price reductions occurring to move problem inventory that sat through a market where everything sold but that house is not really an indicator of much.

People are taking the summer off. Let’s see what happens come Labor Day.

Anonymous wrote:Maryland sales up 46% YoY and inventory down 56% YoY.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2021/06/maryland-real-estate-in-may-sales-up-46.html?m=1

In May. We’re talking about June.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Nope, just normal summer market slow-down. Sales rate is falling and active listings increasing (and the houses that have been sitting are dropping prices) as happens every year.

Exactly.

Not really. The summer slow down is usually sales AND listings. Fewer houses and fewer people looking. That used to be the conventional wisdom — if you shop after the spring market, there will be fewer houses to look at, but also fewer buyers to compete with.

Agree that the flawed (overpriced for what they are) houses sit, but in the crazy market earlier in the year, those houses were selling. The first sign of a cool down is that houses that have a flaw — busy street, next to something undesirable, etc stop selling without a major discount.

That’s the question — did all of those people who didn’t find a house in the spring market quit looking?

Anonymous wrote:I’m not even sure if price reductions are an indicator if people are shooting for the moon while listing.

Yeah.

Maryland sales up 46% YoY and inventory down 56% YoY.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2021/06/maryland-real-estate-in-may-sales-up-46.html?m=1