Anonymous wrote:
By top 30, we’re talking about UVA and UNC type of schools. I think it’ll be hard. His weighted GPA would be too low with too few AP classes. Of course it also depends on his demographics. It’ll be much easier if he is URM.
This isn't true. He is at a private school and taking their most rigorous courses offered. His (recalculated) weighted GPA would not be compared to kids at schools with unlimited APs; he'll be compared to the other applicants from his school and private schools like his in the region. Yes, it will be harder at state schools that primarily look at GPA for cut offs and mostly want 4.0s, like UVA; but that vast majority of top schools are not like that.
Looking at our private school Naviance, a 1500 UW3.8 student could be accepted anywhere, and kids with slightly lower stats got into the top 5 schools. However, of course, the top 30 schools are a reach for everyone, and even a lottery for the kids who are above the 75th percentile for the top schools. 1500 is at the 75th percentile for the bottom of the top 30, so a strong match for OP's kid (if he actually gets that score), while still a lottery because so many kids have the same stats.