Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:OP, I would consider mental health treatment for yourself

Barring an unexpectedly fast scientific breakthrough (which could happen, but is not the most likely outcome), years of DL is realistic. Those who think otherwise are delusional. There may be a few half-hearted attempts to go back next fall, but they won't stick.

NP. Unfortunately, I agree with this. I'd estimate that DL will be in place for about three years. Pretty much any credible medical expert does not think this will blow over in a year. We very well might have a vaccine in a few months, but by the time it is distributed, I think initial outbreak of the pandemic will likely be over. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/07/covid-19-vaccine-reality-check/614566/

I was laughed at in March when I said that there wouldn't be school next year, and here we are.

Yes, I do believe that teacher unions and school districts will be broken up across the country, but that isn't going to happen in a year. It is going to take some time, and local school board elections will need to cycle through.

Years of distance learning yet I can go to a mall? My teenage neighbor can work at Target right now?
Why the hell can't teachers just do their jobs like the rest of us are. In masks if needed. This is getting crazy.

You seem to be missing the point that it is people going to malls, Target, etc. that is driving spread and preventing us from opening schools. Teachers ARE doing our jobs. It is not my job to work in a crowded, unsanitary building through a global emergency where gathering together in large groups is the single greatest risk factor. That is not a realistic expectation for people who are already overworked and underpaid-teachers today make 4.5% less, on average, than they did ten years ago. During the Great Recession in 2008 schools faced huge budget cuts and never saw that funding come back. If you think that teachers are just immune to inflation and increased cost of living and should continue working happily, paying for materials for our classrooms out of pocket to make up for these gaps, then you are the problem. Now, what we are being asked to do is too big an ask. We were willing to give you more of our time, more of our money, and even participate in active shooter drills. Now, you want us to put our health and our families' health on the line. If you can't make simple sacrifices for a few months without getting so bored and restless that you start flocking to bars, restaurants, malls, etc. then why should I believe that you are quarantining and doing your part to keep ME safe in the fall? Why should I believe that parents who routinely send their children to school with diarrhea, runny noses and coughs, strep throat, the flu, and lice will suddenly agree to keep their sick children home, taking weeks off from work, during the worst economic climate since the Great Depression?
Once EVERYONE starts doing their part to control the spread then sure, send us back. Until then? No.

Anonymous wrote:I'm thinking of sending my kids to live with grandparents in upstate New York. They will quarantine at home first, I'll drive them up there, and let them do another quarantine officially with grandma and grandpa. They are old enough to be a help to my folks (who asked for them to come). If Maryland doesn't get it together and turn our state around, it's going to be a long, hard winter stuck mostly indoors on our screens.

So we would consider this too (we have one year until our oldest enters kindergarten). That being said, I'll believe it when I see it in terms of schools actually opening up there.

This whole response has been a mess and I don't think we've begun to understand the fallout. A good friend of mine in another state just quit her nursing position when schools announced fulltime distance learning for the upcoming school year. They were able to make it work in the spring as her husband was at home teleworking more and able to shoulder the DL and childcare burden. But now he's back fulltime and makes more- it would also be eaier for her to find a new position a couple years down the road. She said that the continued school closure almost felt like a "green light" to put her family first. Why assume the risks that come with healthcare only to have most of her salary go to pay a nanny? The societal benefits don't outweigh the personal risks- teachers have come to that decision, and others will too. It will be interesting to see how widespread this sort of thing is, because if a parent quits, it is more likely to be the mom, and there are a number of so-called "essential" fields that are dominated by women.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:OP, I would consider mental health treatment for yourself

Barring an unexpectedly fast scientific breakthrough (which could happen, but is not the most likely outcome), years of DL is realistic. Those who think otherwise are delusional. There may be a few half-hearted attempts to go back next fall, but they won't stick.

NP. Unfortunately, I agree with this. I'd estimate that DL will be in place for about three years. Pretty much any credible medical expert does not think this will blow over in a year. We very well might have a vaccine in a few months, but by the time it is distributed, I think initial outbreak of the pandemic will likely be over. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/07/covid-19-vaccine-reality-check/614566/

I was laughed at in March when I said that there wouldn't be school next year, and here we are.

Yes, I do believe that teacher unions and school districts will be broken up across the country, but that isn't going to happen in a year. It is going to take some time, and local school board elections will need to cycle through.

Years of distance learning yet I can go to a mall? My teenage neighbor can work at Target right now?
Why the hell can't teachers just do their jobs like the rest of us are. In masks if needed. This is getting crazy.

I'm thinking of sending my kids to live with grandparents in upstate New York. They will quarantine at home first, I'll drive them up there, and let them do another quarantine officially with grandma and grandpa. They are old enough to be a help to my folks (who asked for them to come). If Maryland doesn't get it together and turn our state around, it's going to be a long, hard winter stuck mostly indoors on our screens.

This is such a tough question. If DL stretches into 2021 we will seriously consider moving “home” to NY for in person learning. Because they seem to care enough there to get the cases down so that schools can open.

Anonymous wrote:This is OP. As background, in early Feb. I liquidated some equity savings because I thought there would be a market crash, and I bought some extra sanitizer and bleach cleaning products. I also moved up my routine health appointments when I could. When school ended in March, I told my kids they would likely not be back in in-person school until 2021 earliest. In other words, my track record isn't perfect and I got some stuff wrong (I thought grocery stores/restaurants might be closed for longer periods of time), but my predictions have been generally correct so far. I think that there won't be regular in-person education for years. It would be great if I am wrong, though!

What I am struggling with is what now. I know I am likely right, but what do I do with that? I don't want to move to a place that is pandemic-ignorant or pretends it does not exist. Mask-wearing is essential. But I believe with adequate distancing and PPE, schools could open, at least some smaller private schools. I am just not sure how to find those.

Those of you who have suggestions, thank you. Much appreciated.

I think you are absolutely right. If COVID spread is low, schools can open with masks and social distancing. You need to look for the "green" counties and for states that are aiming to turn most of their counties green through public health orders.

The problem with the "yellow" counties is that it takes too much effort to keep them "yellow". The nature of COVID is to spread easily. So when you have any outbreaks you need to intervene quickly and shut the whole town or city down for 2 weeks to squash the spread. Otherwise your contact tracers are spread too thin. As states are figuring this out, they will get stricter and stricter for a while with their yellow counties, and might not allow schools to be open there -- but that's actually a GOOD sign that they have learned the lesson, and will do what it takes to keep counties "green" as much as possible.

States with "orange" counties that are still having indoor restaurants open "at 50% capacity" are nuts. I'm talking to you Maryland. It's not going to work.

Sorry, cut off the link:

www.globalepidemics.org

In a nutshell, any counties that have new cases per 100,000 per day of 1 or less than 1 are "green" ... and that is the level at which it is probably safe to reopen schools (and other things... and have a kind of normal life). New cases per 100,000 per day of between 1 and 9 are "yellow". States need to pay careful attention to yellow counties through lots of testing and contact tracing. If you read about countries in Europe talking about "new outbreaks" and "second waves" ... they are talking about green areas turning yellow, usually.


If you don't watch out, yellow counties quickly turn into orange counties and honestly, stay at home orders would be needed for orange counties. Orange means 10- 24 new cases per 100,000 per day. After that is red -- which as you can see is most of our south.

I wouldn't move to any state that had any orange counties at this point. With all we know about COVID spread, having an orange county (if it isn't already under a "stay at home" order) is a sign of failed public health. They aren't going to be safely able to open schools. They might TRY to open schools but it isn't going to work for long. And businesses are going to take longer to recover as well. These states are making short term decisions for the economy, instead of thinking for the long term economy.

https://scontent-iad3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/116352011_10223333998683414_6762941583175852169_o.jpg?_nc_cat=109&_nc_sid=8024bb&_nc_ohc=NrR5eJGRD3MAX8K5GFC&_nc_ht=scontent-iad3-1.xx&oh=5cc4842585c880bfee1d6ed4dd958f0e&oe=5F426F47

OP, I would move to a New England state or New York that is quarantining people who travel from high risk states.

They have been consistently "green" with a few "yellow" counties in terms of paying attention. If they actually impose stay at home orders on any county slipping into the "orange" category, that is a sign they are serious about keeping spread of COVID under control.

www.globalepidemics.org

I agree with those who say move. I think as time goes on we will see an ever-larger divergence in approach, and there will be places that are relatively safe. The problem will be that by the time it’s clear, you could be unable to get in. So get yourself into a financial, professional, and mental Place that you can jump as soon as a good location is identified.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This is OP. As background, in early Feb. I liquidated some equity savings because I thought there would be a market crash, and I bought some extra sanitizer and bleach cleaning products. I also moved up my routine health appointments when I could. When school ended in March, I told my kids they would likely not be back in in-person school until 2021 earliest. In other words, my track record isn't perfect and I got some stuff wrong (I thought grocery stores/restaurants might be closed for longer periods of time), but my predictions have been generally correct so far. I think that there won't be regular in-person education for years. It would be great if I am wrong, though!

What I am struggling with is what now. I know I am likely right, but what do I do with that? I don't want to move to a place that is pandemic-ignorant or pretends it does not exist. Mask-wearing is essential. But I believe with adequate distancing and PPE, schools could open, at least some smaller private schools. I am just not sure how to find those.

Those of you who have suggestions, thank you. Much appreciated.

Tons of offices and office buildings are sitting empty. Once this stretches on, like late fall, businesses will pull out of their leases or not renew. All of the sudden the biggest problem/cost for private schools will be eliminated - there will be fairly cheap commercial real estate. I think it likely, once people realize that numbers will not be good enough for public schools, with risk averse litigious teachers and parents, to open in 2021, new private schools will blow up. DL will be a failure. Fall 2021, when DCPSS opens up once again DL, at least 25% of current dcps will be in these new privates. Charter schools are a wild card. No ideas there.

So I think your kids will be fine if you can make it this year and afford about 10,000-15,000 per kid next year. If your kids are SN, however, they are screwed.

I think a lot of good teachers will jump ship to these privates, DL being a huge amount of work with little reward. Kids will suffer so much.

I am hoping I am wrong and people come to their senses when they see this isn't going away in 6 month and take a mitigation strategy. But it's hard to argue for mitigation when that means that people will get sick. Much easier to argue for a policy that no one gets sick. At least not at school. They'll get sick in pods and daycare and from babysitters, but somehow as long as it wasn't from school, it's OK.

Anonymous wrote:This is OP. As background, in early Feb. I liquidated some equity savings because I thought there would be a market crash, and I bought some extra sanitizer and bleach cleaning products. I also moved up my routine health appointments when I could. When school ended in March, I told my kids they would likely not be back in in-person school until 2021 earliest. In other words, my track record isn't perfect and I got some stuff wrong (I thought grocery stores/restaurants might be closed for longer periods of time), but my predictions have been generally correct so far. I think that there won't be regular in-person education for years. It would be great if I am wrong, though!

What I am struggling with is what now. I know I am likely right, but what do I do with that? I don't want to move to a place that is pandemic-ignorant or pretends it does not exist. Mask-wearing is essential. But I believe with adequate distancing and PPE, schools could open, at least some smaller private schools. I am just not sure how to find those.

Those of you who have suggestions, thank you. Much appreciated.

Tons of offices and office buildings are sitting empty. Once this stretches on, like late fall, businesses will pull out of their leases or not renew. All of the sudden the biggest problem/cost for private schools will be eliminated - there will be fairly cheap commercial real estate. I think it likely, once people realize that numbers will not be good enough for public schools, with risk averse litigious teachers and parents, to open in 2021, new private schools will blow up. DL will be a failure. Fall 2021, when DCPSS opens up once again DL, at least 25% of current dcps will be in these new privates. Charter schools are a wild card. No ideas there.

This is OP. As background, in early Feb. I liquidated some equity savings because I thought there would be a market crash, and I bought some extra sanitizer and bleach cleaning products. I also moved up my routine health appointments when I could. When school ended in March, I told my kids they would likely not be back in in-person school until 2021 earliest. In other words, my track record isn't perfect and I got some stuff wrong (I thought grocery stores/restaurants might be closed for longer periods of time), but my predictions have been generally correct so far. I think that there won't be regular in-person education for years. It would be great if I am wrong, though!

What I am struggling with is what now. I know I am likely right, but what do I do with that? I don't want to move to a place that is pandemic-ignorant or pretends it does not exist. Mask-wearing is essential. But I believe with adequate distancing and PPE, schools could open, at least some smaller private schools. I am just not sure how to find those.

Those of you who have suggestions, thank you. Much appreciated.

Anonymous wrote:OP, I would consider mental health treatment for yourself

Not Op, but I think you are the one who needs help. OP is being realistic. If you talk to experts in the field the vaccine is not nearly as likely to be available and be effective as the newspapers make you think. Bury your head in the sand if you wish. OP is just trying to plan.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Ok you guys are nuts. Don't you think a hard shutdown for 4-6 weeks followed by legit testing and contact tracing like they have done in all the "good" countries (Denmark, Iceland, Norway, Germany, France) would make more sense then having the country distance learn for years and years??

sure - but people have to do it and the US have already shown they won't do it. We'll DL for three years when we'll finally go back with untrained teachers because all the real teachers will have quit rather than risk COVID and DL will be accepted as bunk after two and a half failed years of it.

DP. A hard shutdown followed by rigorous contact tracing and fast tests, along with universal mask-wearing might allow schools to open, but it isn't going to happen. Look around.

It will be largely failed DL for years instead.