Anonymous wrote:Given that DC is talking about reopening on the 29th, I dont see how NOVA wouldnt. Can't really be an island here.

DC Stay Home orders til June 8?

Anonymous wrote:Today’s numbers are not going to help that.

Alexandria's numbers (both cases and deaths) are steadily trending down.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:They shouldn’t, if they are sticking to the plan they set, but they will, because everyone has given up.

exactly. There is no way that Northern VA is going to meet the metrics that they set out. So, the only question is how they are going to spin those metrics to make it look like "it's close enough!"

Fairfax had a big spike today. Loudoun will get the results from their testing blitz back Fri. or Sat. That's going to be a big bump. Then Fairfax Cnty is doing a 2-day testing blitz in Annandale/Falls Church on Sat/Sun -- so those big numbers will be coming back on Mon/Tues of next week.

If DC and MD open up, it will be hard to see how northern VA stays shut. But, based on the increases in cases and hospitalizations, NOVA will not qualify for having 14 days of declining data.

They may not have 14 straight days of declining data all summer.

true, but if you look at the charts and factor in the three days of testing blitz results still to come (Loudoun + Fairfax)... it's unlikely to be a declining curve.

Isn't the metric declining percentage of positive test results? The "testing blitz" actually could make it easier to meet the metric. If you test lots and lots of people, then the percentage of positive results is probably more likely go down.

THey are supposed to have a 14 day "downward trend" in cases AND hospitalizations.

I don't think that is going to play out.

https://www.novaregiondashboard.com/cases-dashboard

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:They shouldn’t, if they are sticking to the plan they set, but they will, because everyone has given up.

exactly. There is no way that Northern VA is going to meet the metrics that they set out. So, the only question is how they are going to spin those metrics to make it look like "it's close enough!"

Fairfax had a big spike today. Loudoun will get the results from their testing blitz back Fri. or Sat. That's going to be a big bump. Then Fairfax Cnty is doing a 2-day testing blitz in Annandale/Falls Church on Sat/Sun -- so those big numbers will be coming back on Mon/Tues of next week.

If DC and MD open up, it will be hard to see how northern VA stays shut. But, based on the increases in cases and hospitalizations, NOVA will not qualify for having 14 days of declining data.

They may not have 14 straight days of declining data all summer.

true, but if you look at the charts and factor in the three days of testing blitz results still to come (Loudoun + Fairfax)... it's unlikely to be a declining curve.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:They shouldn’t, if they are sticking to the plan they set, but they will, because everyone has given up.

exactly. There is no way that Northern VA is going to meet the metrics that they set out. So, the only question is how they are going to spin those metrics to make it look like "it's close enough!"

Fairfax had a big spike today. Loudoun will get the results from their testing blitz back Fri. or Sat. That's going to be a big bump. Then Fairfax Cnty is doing a 2-day testing blitz in Annandale/Falls Church on Sat/Sun -- so those big numbers will be coming back on Mon/Tues of next week.

If DC and MD open up, it will be hard to see how northern VA stays shut. But, based on the increases in cases and hospitalizations, NOVA will not qualify for having 14 days of declining data.

Just curious, did any of the places that recently "opened" have this?

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:They shouldn’t, if they are sticking to the plan they set, but they will, because everyone has given up.

exactly. There is no way that Northern VA is going to meet the metrics that they set out. So, the only question is how they are going to spin those metrics to make it look like "it's close enough!"

Fairfax had a big spike today. Loudoun will get the results from their testing blitz back Fri. or Sat. That's going to be a big bump. Then Fairfax Cnty is doing a 2-day testing blitz in Annandale/Falls Church on Sat/Sun -- so those big numbers will be coming back on Mon/Tues of next week.

If DC and MD open up, it will be hard to see how northern VA stays shut. But, based on the increases in cases and hospitalizations, NOVA will not qualify for having 14 days of declining data.

They may not have 14 straight days of declining data all summer.

virginia was SO slow to ramp up testing-people couldn't get tested who were sick even two weeks ago.

Anonymous wrote:They shouldn’t, if they are sticking to the plan they set, but they will, because everyone has given up.

exactly. There is no way that Northern VA is going to meet the metrics that they set out. So, the only question is how they are going to spin those metrics to make it look like "it's close enough!"

Fairfax had a big spike today. Loudoun will get the results from their testing blitz back Fri. or Sat. That's going to be a big bump. Then Fairfax Cnty is doing a 2-day testing blitz in Annandale/Falls Church on Sat/Sun -- so those big numbers will be coming back on Mon/Tues of next week.

If DC and MD open up, it will be hard to see how northern VA stays shut. But, based on the increases in cases and hospitalizations, NOVA will not qualify for having 14 days of declining data.

Parks didn't open! Just the parking lots. Everything anyone with kids wants to do at a park is still closed up.

How will it be any different than the openings that are happening now? Are we in phase .5?

This already feels like phase 1 a week early. This week- Parks opened, Rec center golf clubs opened, retail at malls opened. Is the only new thing next week, restaurants open for outdoor seating?

the guidelines and metrics are worthless! nothing is defined mathematically or scientifically....

What is "only localized transmission" mean?

Its not in the guidelines because they are garbage. But it's implicit-phase 1 lifts the "stay at home order" and you can socialize in groups of 10 or fewer...

Anonymous wrote:But phase 1 means nothing if essentially everything is still closed. No summer camps, no kids programming/events, no libraries, movie theaters, pools or splash pads, playgrounds ..... but wow adults can go out to patio brunches again.

Yes, I'm just realizing that we all really need phase 2 to make a meaningful difference in my life because at least in DC, there is no possibility of summer camp until phase 2. And according to the Mayor's presentation today, we only get to phase 2 if there is "only localized transmission". Anyone have any idea about what metric actually establishes that? Seems like with the poor social distancing seen in some parts of the city that we will never get there. So depressing. Even if we get to phase 1, sounds like we will be there most of the summer at a minimum.