Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So move to loudon county if you don’t want density. The fact is, housing is unaffordable because there isn’t enough of it.

This is just wrong.

Increasing density drives housing prices up, not down.

If you have a bunch of people living in a small area, then businesses will want to be there too because they want foot traffic. As bars and grocery stores and restaurants and boutiques move in, then more people want to live there too. So more condos and apartments are built. That brings even more bars and grocery stores and restaurants to the area, which makes even more people want to live there, and housing prices go to the moon.

This has happened over and over and over in neighborhoods across DC. Look at Navy Yard (before that 14th Street, and before that U Street, and before that...)

A well-known phenomenon in economics - the price increases when the supply increases.

Wait, what?

Uh, well, I didnt make this up. Economists have talked about this for years. There's academic papers written about it.

There are academic papers written about economic models, which are based on assumptions (because that's how models work), which the academics themselves explicitly say do not reflect the actual real world we live in.

But if you want to test it out in real life, then you can go to McPherson, Kansas (for example) and start building housing. Let us know in a few years whether the housing has generated people to live in it.

You could also just walk over to Navy Yard.

There's way, way, way more housing there than there was ten years ago.

And it is way, way, way more expensive than it was ten years ago.

And this is how increasing density drives low-income minorities out of the city.

The recipe is to buy houses from black people who've been here forever, knock them down and replace them with million-dollar condos that will mostly be bought up by high-income white people.

How many houses were there in the Navy Yard area, owned by black people who had been there forever, before the building boom started there?

Also, is Navy Yard its own self-contained real estate market, or is it part of the DC real estate market and the real estate market of the DC metro area?

"In the Navy Yard neighborhood, about 77 percent of residents were identified as low income in 2000. Sixteen years later, that population dropped to 21 percent.

Most of the people pushed out of these economic hot spots are black and low income, according to the data."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/in-the-district-gentrification-means-widespread-displacement-report-says/2019/04/26/950a0c00-6775-11e9-8985-4cf30147bdca_story.html?outputType=amp

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So move to loudon county if you don’t want density. The fact is, housing is unaffordable because there isn’t enough of it.

This is just wrong.

Increasing density drives housing prices up, not down.

If you have a bunch of people living in a small area, then businesses will want to be there too because they want foot traffic. As bars and grocery stores and restaurants and boutiques move in, then more people want to live there too. So more condos and apartments are built. That brings even more bars and grocery stores and restaurants to the area, which makes even more people want to live there, and housing prices go to the moon.

This has happened over and over and over in neighborhoods across DC. Look at Navy Yard (before that 14th Street, and before that U Street, and before that...)

A well-known phenomenon in economics - the price increases when the supply increases.

Wait, what?

Uh, well, I didnt make this up. Economists have talked about this for years. There's academic papers written about it.

There are academic papers written about economic models, which are based on assumptions (because that's how models work), which the academics themselves explicitly say do not reflect the actual real world we live in.

But if you want to test it out in real life, then you can go to McPherson, Kansas (for example) and start building housing. Let us know in a few years whether the housing has generated people to live in it.

You could also just walk over to Navy Yard.

There's way, way, way more housing there than there was ten years ago.

And it is way, way, way more expensive than it was ten years ago.

And this is how increasing density drives low-income minorities out of the city.

The recipe is to buy houses from black people who've been here forever, knock them down and replace them with million-dollar condos that will mostly be bought up by high-income white people.

How many houses were there in the Navy Yard area, owned by black people who had been there forever, before the building boom started there?

Also, is Navy Yard its own self-contained real estate market, or is it part of the DC real estate market and the real estate market of the DC metro area?

Anonymous wrote:Mayor Bowser and the Density Bros day that the way to end gentrification is to build lots of dense luxury housing in Ward 3 so gentrifiers don’t have to move to NE and SE.

Well that's silly. People move to Ward 3 to get away from density but still live in DC. If you add density, then everyone will move out of DC instead.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So move to loudon county if you don’t want density. The fact is, housing is unaffordable because there isn’t enough of it.

This is just wrong.

Increasing density drives housing prices up, not down.

If you have a bunch of people living in a small area, then businesses will want to be there too because they want foot traffic. As bars and grocery stores and restaurants and boutiques move in, then more people want to live there too. So more condos and apartments are built. That brings even more bars and grocery stores and restaurants to the area, which makes even more people want to live there, and housing prices go to the moon.

This has happened over and over and over in neighborhoods across DC. Look at Navy Yard (before that 14th Street, and before that U Street, and before that...)

A well-known phenomenon in economics - the price increases when the supply increases.

Wait, what?

Uh, well, I didnt make this up. Economists have talked about this for years. There's academic papers written about it.

There are academic papers written about economic models, which are based on assumptions (because that's how models work), which the academics themselves explicitly say do not reflect the actual real world we live in.

But if you want to test it out in real life, then you can go to McPherson, Kansas (for example) and start building housing. Let us know in a few years whether the housing has generated people to live in it.

You could also just walk over to Navy Yard.

There's way, way, way more housing there than there was ten years ago.

And it is way, way, way more expensive than it was ten years ago.

And this is how increasing density drives low-income minorities out of the city.

The recipe is to buy houses from black people who've been here forever, knock them down and replace them with million-dollar condos that will mostly be bought up by high-income white people.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So move to loudon county if you don’t want density. The fact is, housing is unaffordable because there isn’t enough of it.

This is just wrong.

Increasing density drives housing prices up, not down.

If you have a bunch of people living in a small area, then businesses will want to be there too because they want foot traffic. As bars and grocery stores and restaurants and boutiques move in, then more people want to live there too. So more condos and apartments are built. That brings even more bars and grocery stores and restaurants to the area, which makes even more people want to live there, and housing prices go to the moon.

This has happened over and over and over in neighborhoods across DC. Look at Navy Yard (before that 14th Street, and before that U Street, and before that...)

A well-known phenomenon in economics - the price increases when the supply increases.

Wait, what?

Uh, well, I didnt make this up. Economists have talked about this for years. There's academic papers written about it.

There are academic papers written about economic models, which are based on assumptions (because that's how models work), which the academics themselves explicitly say do not reflect the actual real world we live in.

But if you want to test it out in real life, then you can go to McPherson, Kansas (for example) and start building housing. Let us know in a few years whether the housing has generated people to live in it.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So move to loudon county if you don’t want density. The fact is, housing is unaffordable because there isn’t enough of it.

This is just wrong.

Increasing density drives housing prices up, not down.

If you have a bunch of people living in a small area, then businesses will want to be there too because they want foot traffic. As bars and grocery stores and restaurants and boutiques move in, then more people want to live there too. So more condos and apartments are built. That brings even more bars and grocery stores and restaurants to the area, which makes even more people want to live there, and housing prices go to the moon.

This has happened over and over and over in neighborhoods across DC. Look at Navy Yard (before that 14th Street, and before that U Street, and before that...)

A well-known phenomenon in economics - the price increases when the supply increases.

Wait, what?

Uh, well, I didnt make this up. Economists have talked about this for years. There's academic papers written about it.

PP here. I'm an economist. It's very possible to write models that can generate this behavior, but:
- There is no empirical concensus that this actually happens in the real world, nor any consensus on exactly which theoretical model is the "right" one.
- Every one of these models still has a downward sloping demand curve, so that increased quantity of identical housing conditions leads to lower prices. What you're describing is an amenity externality, in which the increase in density affects people's utility of consumption and therefore their willingness to pay.
- That is to say, you're completely ignoring the fact that all those amenities make people better off, which is why they are willing to pay for them. The housing is more expensive because it is better in the eyes of sufficiently many people, and they are made better off by its existence. That is not to say that there can't be "losers" who are made worse off in models such as the one you're describing, there can. For example, displaced poor people can be made worse off if they can't afford to stay. But in order to go further than that and say that increasing density is socially bad, you would have to make utilitarian assumptions that go beyond what any economist I know would comfortably make.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So move to loudon county if you don’t want density. The fact is, housing is unaffordable because there isn’t enough of it.

This is just wrong.

Increasing density drives housing prices up, not down.

If you have a bunch of people living in a small area, then businesses will want to be there too because they want foot traffic. As bars and grocery stores and restaurants and boutiques move in, then more people want to live there too. So more condos and apartments are built. That brings even more bars and grocery stores and restaurants to the area, which makes even more people want to live there, and housing prices go to the moon.

This has happened over and over and over in neighborhoods across DC. Look at Navy Yard (before that 14th Street, and before that U Street, and before that...)

A well-known phenomenon in economics - the price increases when the supply increases.

Wait, what?

Uh, well, I didnt make this up. Economists have talked about this for years. There's academic papers written about it.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So move to loudon county if you don’t want density. The fact is, housing is unaffordable because there isn’t enough of it.

This is just wrong.

Increasing density drives housing prices up, not down.

If you have a bunch of people living in a small area, then businesses will want to be there too because they want foot traffic. As bars and grocery stores and restaurants and boutiques move in, then more people want to live there too. So more condos and apartments are built. That brings even more bars and grocery stores and restaurants to the area, which makes even more people want to live there, and housing prices go to the moon.

This has happened over and over and over in neighborhoods across DC. Look at Navy Yard (before that 14th Street, and before that U Street, and before that...)

A well-known phenomenon in economics - the price increases when the supply increases.

Wait, what?

Anonymous wrote:So move to loudon county if you don’t want density. The fact is, housing is unaffordable because there isn’t enough of it.

This is just wrong.

Increasing density drives housing prices up, not down.

If you have a bunch of people living in a small area, then businesses will want to be there too because they want foot traffic. As bars and grocery stores and restaurants and boutiques move in, then more people want to live there too. So more condos and apartments are built. That brings even more bars and grocery stores and restaurants to the area, which makes even more people want to live there, and housing prices go to the moon.

This has happened over and over and over in neighborhoods across DC. Look at Navy Yard (before that 14th Street, and before that U Street, and before that...)

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Simple economics. More people in a certain area = more demand for housing. Supply barely changes = increasing costs. Increasing costs = poor people have to leave.

Hopefully with the rise of more telework, people de-densify away away from urban centers and the housing markets crash to bring prices more in line with what people can afford. The premium you have to pay for horrible dense city life is stupidly not worth it.

It's so crowded, nobody goes there anymore.

Seriously, I think we're having a grand old time in here without PP.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The mayor trumpets “inclusionary zoning” but the reality is that after 10 years of IZ, the percentage of Iz I’m qualifying projects is less than 8 percent. DC can’t build its way to affordable housing through IZ as a small part of market rate housing. The only times when I’ve observed that “trickle down” really works is when my dog finds a hydrant.

And what is your proposed alternative, keeping in mind that the laws of supply and demand still apply?

DC need to build affordable housing in DC-owned properties. There are lots of DC properties in the District.

But folks, don’t kid yourselves. The mayor’s profound changes to the comp plan aren’t really about more affordable housing. They’re about creating more windfall profit opportunities to build more luxury housing. That’s why the office of planning basically outsourced the drafting to the mayor’s developer backers and their zoning law firms.

The mayor's changes are about housing. The mayor thinks more housing needs to be built. You think it doesn't. Or maybe you do, as long as it doesn't get built anywhere near you.

Interesting that the DC CFO’s data actually showed a net population decrease in the District in the last two years. And that was pre-COVID.

This is false. DC's population growth is slower than it was in the early part of the 2010s, but we still added over 4,000 new residents on net last year, and we have added population every year for well over a decade.

https://wtop.com/business-finance/2020/01/dc-population-climbs-to-nearly-706000-but-growth-is-slowing/

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The mayor trumpets “inclusionary zoning” but the reality is that after 10 years of IZ, the percentage of Iz I’m qualifying projects is less than 8 percent. DC can’t build its way to affordable housing through IZ as a small part of market rate housing. The only times when I’ve observed that “trickle down” really works is when my dog finds a hydrant.

And what is your proposed alternative, keeping in mind that the laws of supply and demand still apply?

DC need to build affordable housing in DC-owned properties. There are lots of DC properties in the District.

But folks, don’t kid yourselves. The mayor’s profound changes to the comp plan aren’t really about more affordable housing. They’re about creating more windfall profit opportunities to build more luxury housing. That’s why the office of planning basically outsourced the drafting to the mayor’s developer backers and their zoning law firms.

The mayor's changes are about housing. The mayor thinks more housing needs to be built. You think it doesn't. Or maybe you do, as long as it doesn't get built anywhere near you.

Interesting that the DC CFO’s data actually showed a net population decrease in the District in the last two years. And that was pre-COVID.

Anonymous wrote:Simple economics. More people in a certain area = more demand for housing. Supply barely changes = increasing costs. Increasing costs = poor people have to leave.

Hopefully with the rise of more telework, people de-densify away away from urban centers and the housing markets crash to bring prices more in line with what people can afford. The premium you have to pay for horrible dense city life is stupidly not worth it.

It's so crowded, nobody goes there anymore.

Simple economics. More people in a certain area = more demand for housing. Supply barely changes = increasing costs. Increasing costs = poor people have to leave.

Hopefully with the rise of more telework, people de-densify away away from urban centers and the housing markets crash to bring prices more in line with what people can afford. The premium you have to pay for horrible dense city life is stupidly not worth it.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The mayor trumpets “inclusionary zoning” but the reality is that after 10 years of IZ, the percentage of Iz I’m qualifying projects is less than 8 percent. DC can’t build its way to affordable housing through IZ as a small part of market rate housing. The only times when I’ve observed that “trickle down” really works is when my dog finds a hydrant.

And what is your proposed alternative, keeping in mind that the laws of supply and demand still apply?

DC need to build affordable housing in DC-owned properties. There are lots of DC properties in the District.

But folks, don’t kid yourselves. The mayor’s profound changes to the comp plan aren’t really about more affordable housing. They’re about creating more windfall profit opportunities to build more luxury housing. That’s why the office of planning basically outsourced the drafting to the mayor’s developer backers and their zoning law firms.

The mayor's changes are about housing. The mayor thinks more housing needs to be built. You think it doesn't. Or maybe you do, as long as it doesn't get built anywhere near you.