Anonymous
Post 05/14/2020 13:09     Subject: Elrich plan for MoCo
Anonymous wrote:“Total cases” and even “new cases” are relatively meaningless to the extent they merely represent identification of heretofore unidentified cases via more widespread testing.

New hospital admissions/new ICU admissions (or more precisely change in daily populations) is a much stronger indicator of the current state of serious disease.


New cases aren't meaningless if the virus is to be contained.
Anonymous
Post 05/14/2020 13:09     Subject: Elrich plan for MoCo
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:He's using the right metrics. I'm glad to hear that he is.


Do you even understand the economic and societal implications of waiting for the number of positive tests to go down with massively ramped up testing capacity? Do you know how this works?

Did you hear him say "oh yeah, sucks that some people don't have jobs. I mean I want to go to a restaurant too..."


The economy won’t reopen no matter what. Even if restaurants were open, no one would go. Ditto flights, hotel, conferences, weddings, metro, etc. Fear of the virus has cratered the economy.


Well, places that have reopened show that's false.


Judging from S.K., people flood those places and then get ill. Which is additional strain on both the health care industry and the economy. My cousin is a business owner, she just sent an email to her employees that she was remaining closed to protect their health now and reduce health care costs in the future so she can continue to provide it as a benefit.


For South Korea, that was a nightclub.

No one is talking about opening restaurants in MD, much less nightclubs.
Anonymous
Post 05/14/2020 13:09     Subject: Elrich plan for MoCo
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:He's using the right metrics. I'm glad to hear that he is.


Do you even understand the economic and societal implications of waiting for the number of positive tests to go down with massively ramped up testing capacity? Do you know how this works?

Did you hear him say "oh yeah, sucks that some people don't have jobs. I mean I want to go to a restaurant too..."


The economy won’t reopen no matter what. Even if restaurants were open, no one would go. Ditto flights, hotel, conferences, weddings, metro, etc. Fear of the virus has cratered the economy.


Also how are any businesses going to survive if they have to operate at half capacity?


You think they're in a great position now?


What exactly are you arguing? You don't sound very bright.
Anonymous
Post 05/14/2020 13:08     Subject: Elrich plan for MoCo
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:He's using the right metrics. I'm glad to hear that he is.


Do you even understand the economic and societal implications of waiting for the number of positive tests to go down with massively ramped up testing capacity? Do you know how this works?

Did you hear him say "oh yeah, sucks that some people don't have jobs. I mean I want to go to a restaurant too..."


The economy won’t reopen no matter what. Even if restaurants were open, no one would go. Ditto flights, hotel, conferences, weddings, metro, etc. Fear of the virus has cratered the economy.


Well, places that have reopened show that's false.


Judging from S.K., people flood those places and then get ill. Which is additional strain on both the health care industry and the economy. My cousin is a business owner, she just sent an email to her employees that she was remaining closed to protect their health now and reduce health care costs in the future so she can continue to provide it as a benefit.
Anonymous
Post 05/14/2020 13:08     Subject: Elrich plan for MoCo
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:He's using the right metrics. I'm glad to hear that he is.


Do you even understand the economic and societal implications of waiting for the number of positive tests to go down with massively ramped up testing capacity? Do you know how this works?

Did you hear him say "oh yeah, sucks that some people don't have jobs. I mean I want to go to a restaurant too..."


The economy won’t reopen no matter what. Even if restaurants were open, no one would go. Ditto flights, hotel, conferences, weddings, metro, etc. Fear of the virus has cratered the economy.


Then we should just reopen and let the few who are not risk adverse go on with normal life.
Anonymous
Post 05/14/2020 13:08     Subject: Elrich plan for MoCo
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:He's using the right metrics. I'm glad to hear that he is.


Do you even understand the economic and societal implications of waiting for the number of positive tests to go down with massively ramped up testing capacity? Do you know how this works?

Did you hear him say "oh yeah, sucks that some people don't have jobs. I mean I want to go to a restaurant too..."


The economy won’t reopen no matter what. Even if restaurants were open, no one would go. Ditto flights, hotel, conferences, weddings, metro, etc. Fear of the virus has cratered the economy.


Also how are any businesses going to survive if they have to operate at half capacity?


You think they're in a great position now?
Anonymous
Post 05/14/2020 13:07     Subject: Elrich plan for MoCo
“Total cases” and even “new cases” are relatively meaningless to the extent they merely represent identification of heretofore unidentified cases via more widespread testing.

New hospital admissions/new ICU admissions (or more precisely change in daily populations) is a much stronger indicator of the current state of serious disease.
Anonymous
Post 05/14/2020 13:07     Subject: Elrich plan for MoCo
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:He's using the right metrics. I'm glad to hear that he is.


You realize cases will go up as testing does, right?

So MoCo is looking at a VERY long time under a stay at home order.


DP. I agree he’s using the most appropriate metrics. Just because people aren’t hospitalized doesn’t mean they are very ill. You need to read what the CDC considers a mild case. It includes previously healthy, young people who are essentially bedridden from weakness or coughing non-stop. They won’t be going to work, eating in restaurants, shopping at the mall, or doing any of the economic activities you think are essential for you to feel safe.


Except that's a mild case OF PEOPLE WHO ARE EVEN DIAGNOSED. Most people who test positive don't even know they're infected. That makes the denominator much higher.
Anonymous
Post 05/14/2020 13:06     Subject: Elrich plan for MoCo
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:He's using the right metrics. I'm glad to hear that he is.


Do you even understand the economic and societal implications of waiting for the number of positive tests to go down with massively ramped up testing capacity? Do you know how this works?

Did you hear him say "oh yeah, sucks that some people don't have jobs. I mean I want to go to a restaurant too..."


The economy won’t reopen no matter what. Even if restaurants were open, no one would go. Ditto flights, hotel, conferences, weddings, metro, etc. Fear of the virus has cratered the economy.


Also how are any businesses going to survive if they have to operate at half capacity?
Anonymous
Post 05/14/2020 13:05     Subject: Elrich plan for MoCo
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:He's using the right metrics. I'm glad to hear that he is.


You realize cases will go up as testing does, right?

So MoCo is looking at a VERY long time under a stay at home order.


DP. I agree he’s using the most appropriate metrics. Just because people aren’t hospitalized doesn’t mean they are very ill. You need to read what the CDC considers a mild case. It includes previously healthy, young people who are essentially bedridden from weakness or coughing non-stop. They won’t be going to work, eating in restaurants, shopping at the mall, or doing any of the economic activities you think are essential for you to feel safe.
Anonymous
Post 05/14/2020 13:05     Subject: Elrich plan for MoCo
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:He's using the right metrics. I'm glad to hear that he is.


Do you even understand the economic and societal implications of waiting for the number of positive tests to go down with massively ramped up testing capacity? Do you know how this works?

Did you hear him say "oh yeah, sucks that some people don't have jobs. I mean I want to go to a restaurant too..."


The economy won’t reopen no matter what. Even if restaurants were open, no one would go. Ditto flights, hotel, conferences, weddings, metro, etc. Fear of the virus has cratered the economy.


So then what's the answer? Give people no choice until there's a vaccine?
Anonymous
Post 05/14/2020 13:05     Subject: Elrich plan for MoCo
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:He's using the right metrics. I'm glad to hear that he is.


Do you even understand the economic and societal implications of waiting for the number of positive tests to go down with massively ramped up testing capacity? Do you know how this works?

Did you hear him say "oh yeah, sucks that some people don't have jobs. I mean I want to go to a restaurant too..."


The economy won’t reopen no matter what. Even if restaurants were open, no one would go. Ditto flights, hotel, conferences, weddings, metro, etc. Fear of the virus has cratered the economy.


Well, places that have reopened show that's false.
Anonymous
Post 05/14/2020 13:05     Subject: Elrich plan for MoCo
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:He's using the right metrics. I'm glad to hear that he is.


Do you even understand the economic and societal implications of waiting for the number of positive tests to go down with massively ramped up testing capacity? Do you know how this works?

Did you hear him say "oh yeah, sucks that some people don't have jobs. I mean I want to go to a restaurant too..."


The economy won’t reopen no matter what. Even if restaurants were open, no one would go. Ditto flights, hotel, conferences, weddings, metro, etc. Fear of the virus has cratered the economy.
Anonymous
Post 05/14/2020 13:04     Subject: Elrich plan for MoCo
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:He's using the right metrics. I'm glad to hear that he is.


You realize cases will go up as testing does, right?

So MoCo is looking at a VERY long time under a stay at home order.


I realize that cases go down when cases go down. You realize that too.


Uh, what?


Or maybe you don't...
Anonymous
Post 05/14/2020 13:04     Subject: Elrich plan for MoCo
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Yup. It's very wrong. Also, I have no clue how MoCo is going to achieve 5% testing when MD is struggling to get to 3%.


Does Montgomery County have their own tests?


I don't think so.

I have no clue where we are going to get these tests. He wants to test 5% of the population--50,000 people. Hogan got 500,000 tests from South Korea. Getting to that testing level for MoCo would mean using most of the tests in our county, considering that you obviously can't just test 5% once and be done with it.

I seriously doubt Hogan is going to give one county the use of that much of that stockpile.