Anonymous wrote:You lost me at “guidelines set out by the White House.”

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I know there is a ton of speculation, but I've been trying to go through some of the guidelines and come up with some more realistic guidance.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/openingamerica/

Under the guidelines set out by the White House, you basically need 14 days of a downward trend in new cases (plus a few other bits) before we can start Phase I of reopening. Phase I would see a few people back to work, but schools and bars would stay closed. To quote, during Phase I, "SCHOOLS AND ORGANIZED YOUTH ACTIVITIES (e.g., daycare, camp) that are currently closed should remain closed." To get to Phase I, we need to see the following milestones:

1) Downward trajectory of influenza-like illnesses (ILI) reported within a 14-day period AND Downward trajectory of covid-like syndromic cases reported within a 14-day period
2) Downward trajectory of documented cases within a 14-day period OR trajectory of positive tests as a percent of total tests within a 14-day period (flat or increasing volume of tests).
3) Treat all patients without crisis care AND Robust testing program in place for at-risk healthcare workers, including emerging antibody testing

Assuming point 3 on the testing gets addressed, a really big assumption, we look at the current trends. Note: There is no guidance on the specifics of the 'trend' whether it is a moving average or logarithmic or whatever, but let's just ignore that for now. At present, we see:

Virginia currently has had one day with decreased cases.
Maryland currently has three days with decreased cases.
DC currently has zero (maybe one) day with decreased cases.

As such, Phase I's start is at least 14 days away from today, so we're talking May 8th at the earliest, in a best-case scenario.

Phase II will require at least a second period of 14 days from the start of Phase I with the same milestones continuing to be met. So that would be May 22nd, in a best-case scenario

Under Phase II, "SCHOOLS AND ORGANIZED YOUTH ACTIVITIES (e.g., daycare, camp) can reopen." However, "All individuals, WHEN IN PUBLIC (e.g., parks, outdoor recreation areas, shopping areas), should maximize physical distance from others. Social settings of more than 50 people, where appropriate distancing may not be practical, should be avoided unless precautionary measures are observed."

If we assume clubs could start practice in Phase II, there still needs to be some warmup time. In the DA they have a pre-season of 4 weeks, though that seems to be a luxury right now and will likely be condensed. However, many sports medicine people are going to recommend a minimum of at least two weeks of training before kids play a competitive match to avoid injuries. If you go with two weeks, then you are looking at:

First Game: June 5, in a best-case scenario

Now, as mentioned, this is basically a BEST CASE scenario. Anything earlier would like be counter to the guidelines issued by the White House and, more than likely, the state governments. We also have the issue of fields being closed and whatnot and parents not wanting to play, etc, but thought I'd take a stab at placing some of this on a calendar.

First you start a redundant thread and then you provide a bunch of useless beauracratic blather. None of what is stated above matters. Decisions will be made on perception, politics, and fear. This has been proven already by the mere fact Orange Top was elected. Good luck with your rational thought, but there is no place for it here.

Why do you have to be such a dick? I bet who ever you are locked up with is miserable!

Anyway..Gov Northam just said that Phase One is a two year deal. No school or sports for 2 years!

No he did not.. shut the F up someone will actually believe you.

https://www.richmond.com/news/virginia/we-cannot-and-will-not-lift-restrictions-like-one-turns-on-a-light-switch-northam/article_cac6c890-386e-5481-b413-98787b12f685.html

Give a read. He says that Phase One will be a 2 year affair. He hopes he's wrong but he thinks it will take 2 years.

Dude! “I, personally, think Phase One will be a two-year affair,” OLIVER SAID (Who the Heck is Oliver? Ralph is the F Governor) . “There are a lot of people working on this, and I hope they prove me wrong, but I don’t see it happening in less than two years.”

This shows you how many Americans can’t read.. Oliver is the health commissioner And just like the other poster millions in Va went wild. He doesn’t make those decisions however the governor was quick to address what he said.

The Virginia health department tried to clarify Oliver’s comments on Saturday, saying the health commissioner misspoke when speculating that Phase One of recovery would last 24 months.

“Dr. Oliver intended to say that the Commonwealth will likely be dealing with COVID-19 in some form until a vaccine is produced, not that Phase One itself would take two years,” a department spokesperson told Newsradio WRVA

Thank you because i was shocked at that post and all this misinformation is ridiculous

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I know there is a ton of speculation, but I've been trying to go through some of the guidelines and come up with some more realistic guidance.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/openingamerica/

Under the guidelines set out by the White House, you basically need 14 days of a downward trend in new cases (plus a few other bits) before we can start Phase I of reopening. Phase I would see a few people back to work, but schools and bars would stay closed. To quote, during Phase I, "SCHOOLS AND ORGANIZED YOUTH ACTIVITIES (e.g., daycare, camp) that are currently closed should remain closed." To get to Phase I, we need to see the following milestones:

1) Downward trajectory of influenza-like illnesses (ILI) reported within a 14-day period AND Downward trajectory of covid-like syndromic cases reported within a 14-day period
2) Downward trajectory of documented cases within a 14-day period OR trajectory of positive tests as a percent of total tests within a 14-day period (flat or increasing volume of tests).
3) Treat all patients without crisis care AND Robust testing program in place for at-risk healthcare workers, including emerging antibody testing

Assuming point 3 on the testing gets addressed, a really big assumption, we look at the current trends. Note: There is no guidance on the specifics of the 'trend' whether it is a moving average or logarithmic or whatever, but let's just ignore that for now. At present, we see:

Virginia currently has had one day with decreased cases.
Maryland currently has three days with decreased cases.
DC currently has zero (maybe one) day with decreased cases.

As such, Phase I's start is at least 14 days away from today, so we're talking May 8th at the earliest, in a best-case scenario.

Phase II will require at least a second period of 14 days from the start of Phase I with the same milestones continuing to be met. So that would be May 22nd, in a best-case scenario

Under Phase II, "SCHOOLS AND ORGANIZED YOUTH ACTIVITIES (e.g., daycare, camp) can reopen." However, "All individuals, WHEN IN PUBLIC (e.g., parks, outdoor recreation areas, shopping areas), should maximize physical distance from others. Social settings of more than 50 people, where appropriate distancing may not be practical, should be avoided unless precautionary measures are observed."

If we assume clubs could start practice in Phase II, there still needs to be some warmup time. In the DA they have a pre-season of 4 weeks, though that seems to be a luxury right now and will likely be condensed. However, many sports medicine people are going to recommend a minimum of at least two weeks of training before kids play a competitive match to avoid injuries. If you go with two weeks, then you are looking at:

First Game: June 5, in a best-case scenario

Now, as mentioned, this is basically a BEST CASE scenario. Anything earlier would like be counter to the guidelines issued by the White House and, more than likely, the state governments. We also have the issue of fields being closed and whatnot and parents not wanting to play, etc, but thought I'd take a stab at placing some of this on a calendar.

First you start a redundant thread and then you provide a bunch of useless beauracratic blather. None of what is stated above matters. Decisions will be made on perception, politics, and fear. This has been proven already by the mere fact Orange Top was elected. Good luck with your rational thought, but there is no place for it here.

Why do you have to be such a dick? I bet who ever you are locked up with is miserable!

Anyway..Gov Northam just said that Phase One is a two year deal. No school or sports for 2 years!

No he did not.. shut the F up someone will actually believe you.

https://www.richmond.com/news/virginia/we-cannot-and-will-not-lift-restrictions-like-one-turns-on-a-light-switch-northam/article_cac6c890-386e-5481-b413-98787b12f685.html

Give a read. He says that Phase One will be a 2 year affair. He hopes he's wrong but he thinks it will take 2 years.

Dude! “I, personally, think Phase One will be a two-year affair,” OLIVER SAID (Who the Heck is Oliver? Ralph is the F Governor) . “There are a lot of people working on this, and I hope they prove me wrong, but I don’t see it happening in less than two years.”

This shows you how many Americans can’t read.. Oliver is the health commissioner And just like the other poster millions in Va went wild. He doesn’t make those decisions however the governor was quick to address what he said.

The Virginia health department tried to clarify Oliver’s comments on Saturday, saying the health commissioner misspoke when speculating that Phase One of recovery would last 24 months.

“Dr. Oliver intended to say that the Commonwealth will likely be dealing with COVID-19 in some form until a vaccine is produced, not that Phase One itself would take two years,” a department spokesperson told Newsradio WRVA

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I know there is a ton of speculation, but I've been trying to go through some of the guidelines and come up with some more realistic guidance.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/openingamerica/

Under the guidelines set out by the White House, you basically need 14 days of a downward trend in new cases (plus a few other bits) before we can start Phase I of reopening. Phase I would see a few people back to work, but schools and bars would stay closed. To quote, during Phase I, "SCHOOLS AND ORGANIZED YOUTH ACTIVITIES (e.g., daycare, camp) that are currently closed should remain closed." To get to Phase I, we need to see the following milestones:

1) Downward trajectory of influenza-like illnesses (ILI) reported within a 14-day period AND Downward trajectory of covid-like syndromic cases reported within a 14-day period
2) Downward trajectory of documented cases within a 14-day period OR trajectory of positive tests as a percent of total tests within a 14-day period (flat or increasing volume of tests).
3) Treat all patients without crisis care AND Robust testing program in place for at-risk healthcare workers, including emerging antibody testing

Assuming point 3 on the testing gets addressed, a really big assumption, we look at the current trends. Note: There is no guidance on the specifics of the 'trend' whether it is a moving average or logarithmic or whatever, but let's just ignore that for now. At present, we see:

Virginia currently has had one day with decreased cases.
Maryland currently has three days with decreased cases.
DC currently has zero (maybe one) day with decreased cases.

As such, Phase I's start is at least 14 days away from today, so we're talking May 8th at the earliest, in a best-case scenario.

Phase II will require at least a second period of 14 days from the start of Phase I with the same milestones continuing to be met. So that would be May 22nd, in a best-case scenario

Under Phase II, "SCHOOLS AND ORGANIZED YOUTH ACTIVITIES (e.g., daycare, camp) can reopen." However, "All individuals, WHEN IN PUBLIC (e.g., parks, outdoor recreation areas, shopping areas), should maximize physical distance from others. Social settings of more than 50 people, where appropriate distancing may not be practical, should be avoided unless precautionary measures are observed."

If we assume clubs could start practice in Phase II, there still needs to be some warmup time. In the DA they have a pre-season of 4 weeks, though that seems to be a luxury right now and will likely be condensed. However, many sports medicine people are going to recommend a minimum of at least two weeks of training before kids play a competitive match to avoid injuries. If you go with two weeks, then you are looking at:

First Game: June 5, in a best-case scenario

Now, as mentioned, this is basically a BEST CASE scenario. Anything earlier would like be counter to the guidelines issued by the White House and, more than likely, the state governments. We also have the issue of fields being closed and whatnot and parents not wanting to play, etc, but thought I'd take a stab at placing some of this on a calendar.

First you start a redundant thread and then you provide a bunch of useless beauracratic blather. None of what is stated above matters. Decisions will be made on perception, politics, and fear. This has been proven already by the mere fact Orange Top was elected. Good luck with your rational thought, but there is no place for it here.

Why do you have to be such a dick? I bet who ever you are locked up with is miserable!

Anyway..Gov Northam just said that Phase One is a two year deal. No school or sports for 2 years!

No he did not.. shut the F up someone will actually believe you.

https://www.richmond.com/news/virginia/we-cannot-and-will-not-lift-restrictions-like-one-turns-on-a-light-switch-northam/article_cac6c890-386e-5481-b413-98787b12f685.html

Give a read. He says that Phase One will be a 2 year affair. He hopes he's wrong but he thinks it will take 2 years.

Dude! “I, personally, think Phase One will be a two-year affair,” OLIVER SAID (Who the Heck is Oliver? Ralph is the F Governor) . “There are a lot of people working on this, and I hope they prove me wrong, but I don’t see it happening in less than two years.”

This shows you how many Americans can’t read.. Oliver is the health commissioner And just like the other poster millions in Va went wild. He doesn’t make those decisions however the governor was quick to address what he said.

The Virginia health department tried to clarify Oliver’s comments on Saturday, saying the health commissioner misspoke when speculating that Phase One of recovery would last 24 months.

“Dr. Oliver intended to say that the Commonwealth will likely be dealing with COVID-19 in some form until a vaccine is produced, not that Phase One itself would take two years,” a department spokesperson told Newsradio WRVA

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I know there is a ton of speculation, but I've been trying to go through some of the guidelines and come up with some more realistic guidance.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/openingamerica/

Under the guidelines set out by the White House, you basically need 14 days of a downward trend in new cases (plus a few other bits) before we can start Phase I of reopening. Phase I would see a few people back to work, but schools and bars would stay closed. To quote, during Phase I, "SCHOOLS AND ORGANIZED YOUTH ACTIVITIES (e.g., daycare, camp) that are currently closed should remain closed." To get to Phase I, we need to see the following milestones:

1) Downward trajectory of influenza-like illnesses (ILI) reported within a 14-day period AND Downward trajectory of covid-like syndromic cases reported within a 14-day period
2) Downward trajectory of documented cases within a 14-day period OR trajectory of positive tests as a percent of total tests within a 14-day period (flat or increasing volume of tests).
3) Treat all patients without crisis care AND Robust testing program in place for at-risk healthcare workers, including emerging antibody testing

Assuming point 3 on the testing gets addressed, a really big assumption, we look at the current trends. Note: There is no guidance on the specifics of the 'trend' whether it is a moving average or logarithmic or whatever, but let's just ignore that for now. At present, we see:

Virginia currently has had one day with decreased cases.
Maryland currently has three days with decreased cases.
DC currently has zero (maybe one) day with decreased cases.

As such, Phase I's start is at least 14 days away from today, so we're talking May 8th at the earliest, in a best-case scenario.

Phase II will require at least a second period of 14 days from the start of Phase I with the same milestones continuing to be met. So that would be May 22nd, in a best-case scenario

Under Phase II, "SCHOOLS AND ORGANIZED YOUTH ACTIVITIES (e.g., daycare, camp) can reopen." However, "All individuals, WHEN IN PUBLIC (e.g., parks, outdoor recreation areas, shopping areas), should maximize physical distance from others. Social settings of more than 50 people, where appropriate distancing may not be practical, should be avoided unless precautionary measures are observed."

If we assume clubs could start practice in Phase II, there still needs to be some warmup time. In the DA they have a pre-season of 4 weeks, though that seems to be a luxury right now and will likely be condensed. However, many sports medicine people are going to recommend a minimum of at least two weeks of training before kids play a competitive match to avoid injuries. If you go with two weeks, then you are looking at:

First Game: June 5, in a best-case scenario

Now, as mentioned, this is basically a BEST CASE scenario. Anything earlier would like be counter to the guidelines issued by the White House and, more than likely, the state governments. We also have the issue of fields being closed and whatnot and parents not wanting to play, etc, but thought I'd take a stab at placing some of this on a calendar.

First you start a redundant thread and then you provide a bunch of useless beauracratic blather. None of what is stated above matters. Decisions will be made on perception, politics, and fear. This has been proven already by the mere fact Orange Top was elected. Good luck with your rational thought, but there is no place for it here.

Why do you have to be such a dick? I bet who ever you are locked up with is miserable!

Anyway..Gov Northam just said that Phase One is a two year deal. No school or sports for 2 years!

No he did not.. shut the F up someone will actually believe you.

https://www.richmond.com/news/virginia/we-cannot-and-will-not-lift-restrictions-like-one-turns-on-a-light-switch-northam/article_cac6c890-386e-5481-b413-98787b12f685.html

Give a read. He says that Phase One will be a 2 year affair. He hopes he's wrong but he thinks it will take 2 years.

Dude! “I, personally, think Phase One will be a two-year affair,” OLIVER SAID (Who the Heck is Oliver? Ralph is the F Governor) . “There are a lot of people working on this, and I hope they prove me wrong, but I don’t see it happening in less than two years.”

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It will vary by location. States are not following WH guidelines and setting up their own phases. PA has red (stay at home), yellow (limited reopening) and green.
For example, large parts of Pennsylvania are slated for limited re-open on May 8 assuming the current trajectory remains. The central south to the entire eastern side will stay home.
Yellow allows for daycares to open, as well as some recreation.

My family is from NE PA and right now they are under curfew because it's so bad up there. Noone out outside of their homes between 8pm and 6am. Yet, they are saying they will lift restrictions by May 8th. So going from mandatory curfew to easing restrictions in 2 weeks. We shall see.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I know there is a ton of speculation, but I've been trying to go through some of the guidelines and come up with some more realistic guidance.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/openingamerica/

Under the guidelines set out by the White House, you basically need 14 days of a downward trend in new cases (plus a few other bits) before we can start Phase I of reopening. Phase I would see a few people back to work, but schools and bars would stay closed. To quote, during Phase I, "SCHOOLS AND ORGANIZED YOUTH ACTIVITIES (e.g., daycare, camp) that are currently closed should remain closed." To get to Phase I, we need to see the following milestones:

1) Downward trajectory of influenza-like illnesses (ILI) reported within a 14-day period AND Downward trajectory of covid-like syndromic cases reported within a 14-day period
2) Downward trajectory of documented cases within a 14-day period OR trajectory of positive tests as a percent of total tests within a 14-day period (flat or increasing volume of tests).
3) Treat all patients without crisis care AND Robust testing program in place for at-risk healthcare workers, including emerging antibody testing

Assuming point 3 on the testing gets addressed, a really big assumption, we look at the current trends. Note: There is no guidance on the specifics of the 'trend' whether it is a moving average or logarithmic or whatever, but let's just ignore that for now. At present, we see:

Virginia currently has had one day with decreased cases.
Maryland currently has three days with decreased cases.
DC currently has zero (maybe one) day with decreased cases.

As such, Phase I's start is at least 14 days away from today, so we're talking May 8th at the earliest, in a best-case scenario.

Phase II will require at least a second period of 14 days from the start of Phase I with the same milestones continuing to be met. So that would be May 22nd, in a best-case scenario

Under Phase II, "SCHOOLS AND ORGANIZED YOUTH ACTIVITIES (e.g., daycare, camp) can reopen." However, "All individuals, WHEN IN PUBLIC (e.g., parks, outdoor recreation areas, shopping areas), should maximize physical distance from others. Social settings of more than 50 people, where appropriate distancing may not be practical, should be avoided unless precautionary measures are observed."

If we assume clubs could start practice in Phase II, there still needs to be some warmup time. In the DA they have a pre-season of 4 weeks, though that seems to be a luxury right now and will likely be condensed. However, many sports medicine people are going to recommend a minimum of at least two weeks of training before kids play a competitive match to avoid injuries. If you go with two weeks, then you are looking at:

First Game: June 5, in a best-case scenario

Now, as mentioned, this is basically a BEST CASE scenario. Anything earlier would like be counter to the guidelines issued by the White House and, more than likely, the state governments. We also have the issue of fields being closed and whatnot and parents not wanting to play, etc, but thought I'd take a stab at placing some of this on a calendar.

First you start a redundant thread and then you provide a bunch of useless beauracratic blather. None of what is stated above matters. Decisions will be made on perception, politics, and fear. This has been proven already by the mere fact Orange Top was elected. Good luck with your rational thought, but there is no place for it here.

Why do you have to be such a dick? I bet who ever you are locked up with is miserable!

Anyway..Gov Northam just said that Phase One is a two year deal. No school or sports for 2 years!

No he did not.. shut the F up someone will actually believe you.

https://www.richmond.com/news/virginia/we-cannot-and-will-not-lift-restrictions-like-one-turns-on-a-light-switch-northam/article_cac6c890-386e-5481-b413-98787b12f685.html

Give a read. He says that Phase One will be a 2 year affair. He hopes he's wrong but he thinks it will take 2 years.

Anonymous wrote:It will vary by location. States are not following WH guidelines and setting up their own phases. PA has red (stay at home), yellow (limited reopening) and green.
For example, large parts of Pennsylvania are slated for limited re-open on May 8 assuming the current trajectory remains. The central south to the entire eastern side will stay home.
Yellow allows for daycares to open, as well as some recreation.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I know there is a ton of speculation, but I've been trying to go through some of the guidelines and come up with some more realistic guidance.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/openingamerica/

Under the guidelines set out by the White House, you basically need 14 days of a downward trend in new cases (plus a few other bits) before we can start Phase I of reopening. Phase I would see a few people back to work, but schools and bars would stay closed. To quote, during Phase I, "SCHOOLS AND ORGANIZED YOUTH ACTIVITIES (e.g., daycare, camp) that are currently closed should remain closed." To get to Phase I, we need to see the following milestones:

1) Downward trajectory of influenza-like illnesses (ILI) reported within a 14-day period AND Downward trajectory of covid-like syndromic cases reported within a 14-day period
2) Downward trajectory of documented cases within a 14-day period OR trajectory of positive tests as a percent of total tests within a 14-day period (flat or increasing volume of tests).
3) Treat all patients without crisis care AND Robust testing program in place for at-risk healthcare workers, including emerging antibody testing

Assuming point 3 on the testing gets addressed, a really big assumption, we look at the current trends. Note: There is no guidance on the specifics of the 'trend' whether it is a moving average or logarithmic or whatever, but let's just ignore that for now. At present, we see:

Virginia currently has had one day with decreased cases.
Maryland currently has three days with decreased cases.
DC currently has zero (maybe one) day with decreased cases.

As such, Phase I's start is at least 14 days away from today, so we're talking May 8th at the earliest, in a best-case scenario.

Phase II will require at least a second period of 14 days from the start of Phase I with the same milestones continuing to be met. So that would be May 22nd, in a best-case scenario

Under Phase II, "SCHOOLS AND ORGANIZED YOUTH ACTIVITIES (e.g., daycare, camp) can reopen." However, "All individuals, WHEN IN PUBLIC (e.g., parks, outdoor recreation areas, shopping areas), should maximize physical distance from others. Social settings of more than 50 people, where appropriate distancing may not be practical, should be avoided unless precautionary measures are observed."

If we assume clubs could start practice in Phase II, there still needs to be some warmup time. In the DA they have a pre-season of 4 weeks, though that seems to be a luxury right now and will likely be condensed. However, many sports medicine people are going to recommend a minimum of at least two weeks of training before kids play a competitive match to avoid injuries. If you go with two weeks, then you are looking at:

First Game: June 5, in a best-case scenario

Now, as mentioned, this is basically a BEST CASE scenario. Anything earlier would like be counter to the guidelines issued by the White House and, more than likely, the state governments. We also have the issue of fields being closed and whatnot and parents not wanting to play, etc, but thought I'd take a stab at placing some of this on a calendar.

First you start a redundant thread and then you provide a bunch of useless beauracratic blather. None of what is stated above matters. Decisions will be made on perception, politics, and fear. This has been proven already by the mere fact Orange Top was elected. Good luck with your rational thought, but there is no place for it here.

Why do you have to be such a dick? I bet who ever you are locked up with is miserable!

Anyway..Gov Northam just said that Phase One is a two year deal. No school or sports for 2 years!

No he did not.. shut the F up someone will actually believe you.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I know there is a ton of speculation, but I've been trying to go through some of the guidelines and come up with some more realistic guidance.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/openingamerica/

Under the guidelines set out by the White House, you basically need 14 days of a downward trend in new cases (plus a few other bits) before we can start Phase I of reopening. Phase I would see a few people back to work, but schools and bars would stay closed. To quote, during Phase I, "SCHOOLS AND ORGANIZED YOUTH ACTIVITIES (e.g., daycare, camp) that are currently closed should remain closed." To get to Phase I, we need to see the following milestones:

1) Downward trajectory of influenza-like illnesses (ILI) reported within a 14-day period AND Downward trajectory of covid-like syndromic cases reported within a 14-day period
2) Downward trajectory of documented cases within a 14-day period OR trajectory of positive tests as a percent of total tests within a 14-day period (flat or increasing volume of tests).
3) Treat all patients without crisis care AND Robust testing program in place for at-risk healthcare workers, including emerging antibody testing

Assuming point 3 on the testing gets addressed, a really big assumption, we look at the current trends. Note: There is no guidance on the specifics of the 'trend' whether it is a moving average or logarithmic or whatever, but let's just ignore that for now. At present, we see:

Virginia currently has had one day with decreased cases.
Maryland currently has three days with decreased cases.
DC currently has zero (maybe one) day with decreased cases.

As such, Phase I's start is at least 14 days away from today, so we're talking May 8th at the earliest, in a best-case scenario.

Phase II will require at least a second period of 14 days from the start of Phase I with the same milestones continuing to be met. So that would be May 22nd, in a best-case scenario

Under Phase II, "SCHOOLS AND ORGANIZED YOUTH ACTIVITIES (e.g., daycare, camp) can reopen." However, "All individuals, WHEN IN PUBLIC (e.g., parks, outdoor recreation areas, shopping areas), should maximize physical distance from others. Social settings of more than 50 people, where appropriate distancing may not be practical, should be avoided unless precautionary measures are observed."

If we assume clubs could start practice in Phase II, there still needs to be some warmup time. In the DA they have a pre-season of 4 weeks, though that seems to be a luxury right now and will likely be condensed. However, many sports medicine people are going to recommend a minimum of at least two weeks of training before kids play a competitive match to avoid injuries. If you go with two weeks, then you are looking at:

First Game: June 5, in a best-case scenario

Now, as mentioned, this is basically a BEST CASE scenario. Anything earlier would like be counter to the guidelines issued by the White House and, more than likely, the state governments. We also have the issue of fields being closed and whatnot and parents not wanting to play, etc, but thought I'd take a stab at placing some of this on a calendar.

First you start a redundant thread and then you provide a bunch of useless beauracratic blather. None of what is stated above matters. Decisions will be made on perception, politics, and fear. This has been proven already by the mere fact Orange Top was elected. Good luck with your rational thought, but there is no place for it here.

Why do you have to be such a dick? I bet who ever you are locked up with is miserable!

Anyway..Gov Northam just said that Phase One is a two year deal. No school or sports for 2 years!

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I know there is a ton of speculation, but I've been trying to go through some of the guidelines and come up with some more realistic guidance.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/openingamerica/

Under the guidelines set out by the White House, you basically need 14 days of a downward trend in new cases (plus a few other bits) before we can start Phase I of reopening. Phase I would see a few people back to work, but schools and bars would stay closed. To quote, during Phase I, "SCHOOLS AND ORGANIZED YOUTH ACTIVITIES (e.g., daycare, camp) that are currently closed should remain closed." To get to Phase I, we need to see the following milestones:

1) Downward trajectory of influenza-like illnesses (ILI) reported within a 14-day period AND Downward trajectory of covid-like syndromic cases reported within a 14-day period
2) Downward trajectory of documented cases within a 14-day period OR trajectory of positive tests as a percent of total tests within a 14-day period (flat or increasing volume of tests).
3) Treat all patients without crisis care AND Robust testing program in place for at-risk healthcare workers, including emerging antibody testing

Assuming point 3 on the testing gets addressed, a really big assumption, we look at the current trends. Note: There is no guidance on the specifics of the 'trend' whether it is a moving average or logarithmic or whatever, but let's just ignore that for now. At present, we see:

Virginia currently has had one day with decreased cases.
Maryland currently has three days with decreased cases.
DC currently has zero (maybe one) day with decreased cases.

As such, Phase I's start is at least 14 days away from today, so we're talking May 8th at the earliest, in a best-case scenario.

Phase II will require at least a second period of 14 days from the start of Phase I with the same milestones continuing to be met. So that would be May 22nd, in a best-case scenario

Under Phase II, "SCHOOLS AND ORGANIZED YOUTH ACTIVITIES (e.g., daycare, camp) can reopen." However, "All individuals, WHEN IN PUBLIC (e.g., parks, outdoor recreation areas, shopping areas), should maximize physical distance from others. Social settings of more than 50 people, where appropriate distancing may not be practical, should be avoided unless precautionary measures are observed."

If we assume clubs could start practice in Phase II, there still needs to be some warmup time. In the DA they have a pre-season of 4 weeks, though that seems to be a luxury right now and will likely be condensed. However, many sports medicine people are going to recommend a minimum of at least two weeks of training before kids play a competitive match to avoid injuries. If you go with two weeks, then you are looking at:

First Game: June 5, in a best-case scenario

Now, as mentioned, this is basically a BEST CASE scenario. Anything earlier would like be counter to the guidelines issued by the White House and, more than likely, the state governments. We also have the issue of fields being closed and whatnot and parents not wanting to play, etc, but thought I'd take a stab at placing some of this on a calendar.

First you start a redundant thread and then you provide a bunch of useless beauracratic blather. None of what is stated above matters. Decisions will be made on perception, politics, and fear. This has been proven already by the mere fact Orange Top was elected. Good luck with your rational thought, but there is no place for it here.

Anonymous wrote:I know there is a ton of speculation, but I've been trying to go through some of the guidelines and come up with some more realistic guidance.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/openingamerica/

Under the guidelines set out by the White House, you basically need 14 days of a downward trend in new cases (plus a few other bits) before we can start Phase I of reopening. Phase I would see a few people back to work, but schools and bars would stay closed. To quote, during Phase I, "SCHOOLS AND ORGANIZED YOUTH ACTIVITIES (e.g., daycare, camp) that are currently closed should remain closed." To get to Phase I, we need to see the following milestones:

1) Downward trajectory of influenza-like illnesses (ILI) reported within a 14-day period AND Downward trajectory of covid-like syndromic cases reported within a 14-day period
2) Downward trajectory of documented cases within a 14-day period OR trajectory of positive tests as a percent of total tests within a 14-day period (flat or increasing volume of tests).
3) Treat all patients without crisis care AND Robust testing program in place for at-risk healthcare workers, including emerging antibody testing

Assuming point 3 on the testing gets addressed, a really big assumption, we look at the current trends. Note: There is no guidance on the specifics of the 'trend' whether it is a moving average or logarithmic or whatever, but let's just ignore that for now. At present, we see:

Virginia currently has had one day with decreased cases.
Maryland currently has three days with decreased cases.
DC currently has zero (maybe one) day with decreased cases.

As such, Phase I's start is at least 14 days away from today, so we're talking May 8th at the earliest, in a best-case scenario.

Phase II will require at least a second period of 14 days from the start of Phase I with the same milestones continuing to be met. So that would be May 22nd, in a best-case scenario

Under Phase II, "SCHOOLS AND ORGANIZED YOUTH ACTIVITIES (e.g., daycare, camp) can reopen." However, "All individuals, WHEN IN PUBLIC (e.g., parks, outdoor recreation areas, shopping areas), should maximize physical distance from others. Social settings of more than 50 people, where appropriate distancing may not be practical, should be avoided unless precautionary measures are observed."

If we assume clubs could start practice in Phase II, there still needs to be some warmup time. In the DA they have a pre-season of 4 weeks, though that seems to be a luxury right now and will likely be condensed. However, many sports medicine people are going to recommend a minimum of at least two weeks of training before kids play a competitive match to avoid injuries. If you go with two weeks, then you are looking at:

First Game: June 5, in a best-case scenario

Now, as mentioned, this is basically a BEST CASE scenario. Anything earlier would like be counter to the guidelines issued by the White House and, more than likely, the state governments. We also have the issue of fields being closed and whatnot and parents not wanting to play, etc, but thought I'd take a stab at placing some of this on a calendar.

Anonymous wrote:You lost me at “guidelines set out by the White House.”

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I should note that many scientists believe the time between phase 1 & 2 and 2 & 3 will be much longer than 14 days.

Great