Anonymous
Post 04/23/2020 13:18     Subject: Why is Daily Infection increasing?
Because you a-holes saw friends and family for Easter and Passover.
Anonymous
Post 04/23/2020 13:16     Subject: Re:Why is Daily Infection increasing?
NY’s death rate is ... .5% not 5, .

https://www.ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/news/2020/04/23/governor-cuomo-daily-coronavirus-update-with-first-antibody-test-results
Anonymous
Post 04/23/2020 13:12     Subject: Why is Daily Infection increasing?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Because people in DC aren't serious about self-isolation, wearing a mask, and social distancing.


Not true. Again rate of growth is declining. People need to be precise


The baseline normal is -0-, not the current high infected rate.

While things are declining from the (current and tentative) high point, we are not on the way back to where it should be, nor will we ever if people aren't more serious.
Anonymous
Post 04/23/2020 13:10     Subject: Re:Why is Daily Infection increasing?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:The numbers small. Who cares


This. The whole point was to not overwhelm hospitals. Hospitals are practically empty. It’s time to move on and address the economic suffering.


Ah yes but now it’s time to move the goalposts from “not overwhelming hospitals” to “making sure no one gets sick.” Hence the need for 2+ more months of all this. Apparently.


Apparently you have zero understanding of how "flattening the curve" works. You can't just reduce the infection rate, say "good job!" and reopen. All that will do is cause everyone to get sick and completely negate everything. You need to get the curve flat enough to stay under hospital capacity then keep it there for an extended period until there is herd immunity or a vaccine is developed. The whole point is lengthening the time period to reduce the number of people needing care at once.

Perhaps this simple graph can help you understand. Notice the blue (social distancing) is longer than the red? (Letting the virus run wild.)



Think of it like watering a plant. In this analogy, the water is people with Coronavirus who need intensive care to survive. The pot is the hospital. If you just dump all the water in at once, the pot will overflow. All that overflowed water equals people who can't get a hospital bed and die. However, if you pour it slowly and give the water time to absorb into the soil, nothing spills. Yes, it takes longer to water the plant, but you don't spill any water.

Oh, and you're really not going to like this: right now, confirmed cases are about 0.2% of the population, and a vaccine is probably a year or more away from mass production. We are going to need a lot more than 2 months before we have herd immunity or a vaccine.



If the plan is to quarantine for 2 years that’s not a plan
Anonymous
Post 04/23/2020 13:07     Subject: Re:Why is Daily Infection increasing?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:The numbers small. Who cares


This. The whole point was to not overwhelm hospitals. Hospitals are practically empty. It’s time to move on and address the economic suffering.


Ah yes but now it’s time to move the goalposts from “not overwhelming hospitals” to “making sure no one gets sick.” Hence the need for 2+ more months of all this. Apparently.


Apparently you have zero understanding of how "flattening the curve" works. You can't just reduce the infection rate, say "good job!" and reopen. All that will do is cause everyone to get sick and completely negate everything. You need to get the curve flat enough to stay under hospital capacity then keep it there for an extended period until there is herd immunity or a vaccine is developed. The whole point is lengthening the time period to reduce the number of people needing care at once.

Perhaps this simple graph can help you understand. Notice the blue (social distancing) is longer than the red? (Letting the virus run wild.)



Think of it like watering a plant. In this analogy, the water is people with Coronavirus who need intensive care to survive. The pot is the hospital. If you just dump all the water in at once, the pot will overflow. All that overflowed water equals people who can't get a hospital bed and die. However, if you pour it slowly and give the water time to absorb into the soil, nothing spills. Yes, it takes longer to water the plant, but you don't spill any water.

Oh, and you're really not going to like this: right now, confirmed cases are about 0.2% of the population, and a vaccine is probably a year or more away from mass production. We are going to need a lot more than 2 months before we have herd immunity or a vaccine.

Anonymous
Post 04/23/2020 13:00     Subject: Why is Daily Infection increasing?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:The issue now is how do we start to open up responsibly in a way that does have people running hog wild and undoing the work we've done so far? I have yet to see a serious plan that actually has the pieces in place to make it feasible.

Where are our leaders?


No one is going to run hog wild. People will be cautious


BS. People will go to the Wharf for steamed shrimp and corn on the cob as soon as SIP orders are lifted. They will wear masks, but will pull them right off to eat those delicious shrimp slathered in Old Bay right next to everyone else.

Folks around here have very little self control or respect for rules.
Anonymous
Post 04/23/2020 12:33     Subject: Why is Daily Infection increasing?
Anonymous wrote:The issue now is how do we start to open up responsibly in a way that does have people running hog wild and undoing the work we've done so far? I have yet to see a serious plan that actually has the pieces in place to make it feasible.

Where are our leaders?


No one is going to run hog wild. People will be cautious
Anonymous
Post 04/23/2020 12:32     Subject: Why is Daily Infection increasing?
The issue now is how do we start to open up responsibly in a way that does have people running hog wild and undoing the work we've done so far? I have yet to see a serious plan that actually has the pieces in place to make it feasible.

Where are our leaders?
Anonymous
Post 04/23/2020 12:27     Subject: Why is Daily Infection increasing?
Anonymous wrote:Because people in DC aren't serious about self-isolation, wearing a mask, and social distancing.


Not true. Again rate of growth is declining. People need to be precise
Anonymous
Post 04/23/2020 12:24     Subject: Why is Daily Infection increasing?
Because people in DC aren't serious about self-isolation, wearing a mask, and social distancing.
Anonymous
Post 04/21/2020 00:24     Subject: Why is Daily Infection increasing?
Because numbers reflect two weeks ago, and are also before mask wearing and a few other measures. Many people were not taking this seriously until right before Easter.

Thankfully the rate is slowing.
Anonymous
Post 04/21/2020 00:19     Subject: Re:Why is Daily Infection increasing?
...Because Coronavirus is in WH! Why else?
Anonymous
Post 04/20/2020 22:20     Subject: Why is Daily Infection increasing?
Nursing homes, hospitals, prisons, grocery stores (and other essential employers), etc. are places that if someone gets infected it is difficult to isolate the rest of the population from them, so the virus is spreading rapidly in these populations.
Anonymous
Post 04/20/2020 22:16     Subject: Re:Why is Daily Infection increasing?
Forgot to include http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/
Anonymous
Post 04/20/2020 22:16     Subject: Re:Why is Daily Infection increasing?
The number of new infections each day is increasing, but the rate of growth is decreasing. The DMV region experienced a drop from ~1.20 daily increases in new cases to ~1.05 about 2 weeks after initial social distancing measures. I think new cases are mostly due to family transmission and essential workers. If that is the reason, we should start to see the rate drop below 1 in the next week or two. If not, there's either a "leak" causing new cases or we have changed something about testing.