as a fiscal conservative, I agree with the doomsday predictions of MoCo (or really any political jurisdiction run by liberals)*, but I bought in close-in MoCo because it's where my job is and the houses are nice and more affordable than elsewhere.

I expect 0 appreciation over time. Think being in Chevy Chase entitles me to not depreciate, but we'll see.

*CT, NJ, Illinois, Westchester County, Chicago, etc.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Above poster, can you state your source that young professionals aren’t moving to MoCo? I am curious

Not saying young professionals are not moving to MoCo....I'm saying that young professionals with the same level of income as all of the boomers who used to have very high salaries (think Potomac etc.) are not moving in at the same rate as the boomers are retiring. THe county will lose a huge amount of tax revenue from all of the boomers with high salaries who are retiring from 2020-2030. Young people are moving in, but not with the same level of salary to replace the loss.

And this has been covered over the years by numerous outlets, I dunno if I can find them all now:

https://wjla.com/news/local/census-d-c-suburbs-strained-by-baby-boomers-retirees-61364

http://montgomeryplanningboard.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Demographic-Housing_Empl-Trends_Final.pdf

Look at page 29 of the report above at the forecasted decline for Peak Wage Earners in MoCo. By 2040 the picture is quite bleak. The Boomers are exploding in population and will offer no tax revenue while the peak earning base in MoCo is declining (resulting in part due to the lack of economic growth). MoCo is in trouble.

MoCo is triple AAA rated. And no one is leaving in Potomac. Might be on paper some movement as a few snowbirds with new tax law.

MoCo is triple AAA rated for now, but you seem to have trouble understanding where the county is headed. It is an undeniable fact that the county continuues to run up huge deficits. It's an undeniable fact that the county's demographics for high wage and prime ages earners looks grim while there is going to be an explosion of retired baby boomers in the county. We also haven't seen anything yet. Just wait until the county's finances face huge pressure from all of the retirement pensions it's owes the coming wave of county govt workers and employees.

MoCo can't economically grow its way out of it's problem and it won't stop spending. There is increasing pressure to spend even more money on schools, which already eats up half the budget. Decreasing tax revenues from the explosion of retirees, increased pressure in retirement obligations, no economic growth....to keep that AAA bond rating means you know what.....tax increases are coming. Expect potentially large increases in property, income and business taxes. It's going to be to drive people out or prevent them coming over the next 10-15 years.

Another NoVa troll?! Why?

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Above poster, can you state your source that young professionals aren’t moving to MoCo? I am curious

Not saying young professionals are not moving to MoCo....I'm saying that young professionals with the same level of income as all of the boomers who used to have very high salaries (think Potomac etc.) are not moving in at the same rate as the boomers are retiring. THe county will lose a huge amount of tax revenue from all of the boomers with high salaries who are retiring from 2020-2030. Young people are moving in, but not with the same level of salary to replace the loss.

And this has been covered over the years by numerous outlets, I dunno if I can find them all now:

https://wjla.com/news/local/census-d-c-suburbs-strained-by-baby-boomers-retirees-61364

http://montgomeryplanningboard.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Demographic-Housing_Empl-Trends_Final.pdf

Look at page 29 of the report above at the forecasted decline for Peak Wage Earners in MoCo. By 2040 the picture is quite bleak. The Boomers are exploding in population and will offer no tax revenue while the peak earning base in MoCo is declining (resulting in part due to the lack of economic growth). MoCo is in trouble.

MoCo is triple AAA rated. And no one is leaving in Potomac. Might be on paper some movement as a few snowbirds with new tax law.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Trump is going to Trump Fannie and Freddie.

NOT anytime soon. They are making profits again. Those toxic housing assets are regaining FMV.

BTW Freddie is in Tysons, where as Fannie is in DC.

Also Bethesda

Tysons is the pits. I'm originally from CA. Yes, there are lots of jobs there, but I would not live there. Maybe live near a metro and commute in.

VA is trending strong left and the next state elections will bring in a big wave of progressives and a Dem majority. The state has some sort of pro business reputation currently, most likely based on years of moderates, and developers basically getting what they wanted.. But that’s not always going to be so. Stay tuned. Change is in the air. And I agree with those who argue that some laws and policies need to be changed.

Anonymous wrote:Trump is going to Trump Fannie and Freddie.

Quite the opposite actually. Now is a good time to get a job there.

Anonymous wrote:Above poster, can you state your source that young professionals aren’t moving to MoCo? I am curious

Not saying young professionals are not moving to MoCo....I'm saying that young professionals with the same level of income as all of the boomers who used to have very high salaries (think Potomac etc.) are not moving in at the same rate as the boomers are retiring. THe county will lose a huge amount of tax revenue from all of the boomers with high salaries who are retiring from 2020-2030. Young people are moving in, but not with the same level of salary to replace the loss.

And this has been covered over the years by numerous outlets, I dunno if I can find them all now:

https://wjla.com/news/local/census-d-c-suburbs-strained-by-baby-boomers-retirees-61364

http://montgomeryplanningboard.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Demographic-Housing_Empl-Trends_Final.pdf

Look at page 29 of the report above at the forecasted decline for Peak Wage Earners in MoCo. By 2040 the picture is quite bleak. The Boomers are exploding in population and will offer no tax revenue while the peak earning base in MoCo is declining (resulting in part due to the lack of economic growth). MoCo is in trouble.

Above poster, can you state your source that young professionals aren’t moving to MoCo? I am curious

MoCo is in trouble.

It recently got warned about its bond rating. It has 0 economic growth because NIMBYs and over bureaucratic nonsense block all business development, plus taxes are high. It cannot reduce taxes on residents and businesses because the county isn't economically growing. MoCo largely relies on the federal govt for jobs. If the govt sequesters or continues to move agencies out of DC, MoCo will suffer because it has no diversification for jobs. MoCo also has a rapidly aging Baby Boomer base that is no longer or will no longer be earning those large salaries they once did, thus MoCo will lose a significant portion of that tax base. There simply aren't enough younger people moving into MoCo with the same level of salary base. So where is MoCo going to get the money to fund its spending? It is almost inevitable that MoCo will have to raise its taxes in the future, which will come probably as some combination of higher property, income, and business taxes. And that's when the death spiral starts. The county can't grow economically, so to cover costs, they raise taxes. Once taxes get raised, people and businesses will continue to flee the county, which puts even more pressure to up taxes to cover budget holes. If MoCo doesn't raise taxes then it faces the same risks to its credit rating that it just got warned about, and if the county's credit rating drops, costs skyrocket overtime and the budget deficits get worse.

MoCo is running up huge budget deficits during a time when the economy is *good*. That shouldn't happen if tax receipts are high. It means the county is spending too much. Will MoCo's politicians ever enact drastic spending cuts to control the county's deficits so that higher taxes can be avoided? Probably not. It's run by very liberal democrats. Half of MoCo's entire budget goes towards spending on schools. The county has hung the welcome mat to tons of illegal immigrants while school capacities, resources and funds are being strained to the max. The problem of deficits, spending, taxes, and schools has gotten so bad that Gaithersburg has something like $800 million in backlogged school projects because there is no money.

We've held off on buying a house in MoCo. We do not want to get stuck with a bag where taxes go up dramatically on your property in the near future coupled with a huge increase in income taxes. It is also completely unknown how the whole school redistricting initiative will affect home values too. Some homes could drop significantly in value overnight. The economic growth in the county is anemic as well, and you do not want to be in an area caught in a downward spiral of economic stagnation, which leads to higher and higher taxes as more people and businesses flee. Home values will plummet when that happens. Hell, at this rate, Baltimore might be a better value soon.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Do people really sit around fretting about living in MD vs. VA for things like job growth? I don’t think so.

Yes, they do. Because jobs attract professionals, professionals buy real estate which effects property value, higher property values means a larger tax base. Better taxes means more community development, better schools and more businesses attracted.

The only positive about the lack of growth is less people and so the commute is going to be shorter.

With that logic, move to Houston.

Anonymous wrote:Do people really sit around fretting about living in MD vs. VA for things like job growth? I don’t think so.

Yes, they do. Because jobs attract professionals, professionals buy real estate which effects property value, higher property values means a larger tax base. Better taxes means more community development, better schools and more businesses attracted.

The only positive about the lack of growth is less people and so the commute is going to be shorter.

I have a question — what the hell happened to MD in 2018?

Loosing the Amazon contract doesn’t explain it. That just contributed to a spike in VA’s growth not a deficit in MD.

Do people really sit around fretting about living in MD vs. VA for things like job growth? I don’t think so.