Anonymous
08/20/2019 07:24
Subject: MoCo Real Estate for the Naysayers
NoVa is just hot right now just like MoCo was a decade ago and in another decade somewhere else will be hot.
If you were to ask dcum, the sky is falling on MoCo and it’s turning into Detroit. Obviously the numbers don’t lie. I’m an Arlington resident and I can see that our local market is being propped up my speculators and hype. MoCo is probably indicative of what the actual real estate market looks like. Still healthy, just not artificially insane.
If you were to ask dcum, the sky is falling on MoCo and it’s turning into Detroit. Obviously the numbers don’t lie. I’m an Arlington resident and I can see that our local market is being propped up my speculators and hype. MoCo is probably indicative of what the actual real estate market looks like. Still healthy, just not artificially insane.
Anonymous
08/20/2019 06:49
Subject: MoCo Real Estate for the Naysayers
Anonymous wrote:The issue isn't what is happening now, but how MoCo will fare over the next ten years after you plunk a huge amount of cash on a home. We have no idea how the upcoming school redistricting will affect home prices. Some people might lose thousands of dollars in home value overnight. Also economic fact: the county is running big budget deficits. While the credit rating remains good now, if it gets downgraded because of too much debt it'll cause the county to spiral downward because it'll cost a lot more money in the future to fund the spending. What is almost certain to happen in the future is tax increases, possibly very significant tax increases over the next 5-10 years. I bet they'll be antsy to jackup property taxes. Additionally, MoCo is aging rapidly. All of those households with very high incomes will be disappearing for tax revenues as 30 million baby boomers retire over the next ten years. There simply aren't enough younger people moving in that can afford the cost of living and who also have the same level of tax base to cover the huge loss of baby boomer income tax revenue. That'll add pressure to increase taxes even more on the county. There's no way to grow out of the problem either. MoCo has had anemic economic and business growth because of how hostile the county is with NIMBYISM and I already got mine so F you attitudes that are rampant. Can't economically grow, decreased tax revenue, pressure to continue tons of spending means tax increases coming. How this might affect flight is the question. Look what happened to a once wealthy city like Baltimore after they kept taxing the crap out of people. It is now a decrepit shell of former self.
They have been predicting the same thing for past 20 years. But MoCo kept getting more and more attractive and expensive.
Anonymous
08/20/2019 01:19
Subject: Re:MoCo Real Estate for the Naysayers
Anonymous
08/19/2019 23:54
Subject: MoCo Real Estate for the Naysayers
The issue isn't what is happening now, but how MoCo will fare over the next ten years after you plunk a huge amount of cash on a home. We have no idea how the upcoming school redistricting will affect home prices. Some people might lose thousands of dollars in home value overnight. Also economic fact: the county is running big budget deficits. While the credit rating remains good now, if it gets downgraded because of too much debt it'll cause the county to spiral downward because it'll cost a lot more money in the future to fund the spending. What is almost certain to happen in the future is tax increases, possibly very significant tax increases over the next 5-10 years. I bet they'll be antsy to jackup property taxes. Additionally, MoCo is aging rapidly. All of those households with very high incomes will be disappearing for tax revenues as 30 million baby boomers retire over the next ten years. There simply aren't enough younger people moving in that can afford the cost of living and who also have the same level of tax base to cover the huge loss of baby boomer income tax revenue. That'll add pressure to increase taxes even more on the county. There's no way to grow out of the problem either. MoCo has had anemic economic and business growth because of how hostile the county is with NIMBYISM and I already got mine so F you attitudes that are rampant. Can't economically grow, decreased tax revenue, pressure to continue tons of spending means tax increases coming. How this might affect flight is the question. Look what happened to a once wealthy city like Baltimore after they kept taxing the crap out of people. It is now a decrepit shell of former self.
Anonymous
08/19/2019 22:48
Subject: Re:MoCo Real Estate for the Naysayers
Anonymous wrote:I think the point is that if you compare MOCO appreciation against the year after the housing crash things look OK as long as you don't look at how well has done NOVA. If you compare MOCO to before or even a few years before the housing crash then it looks bad.
Outside of Bethesda, houses are sitting, being delisted, turned into rentals, and dropping prices. For whatever reason, there are A LOT of houses on the market throughout Silver Spring, Rockville. Potomac, North Potomac and Gaithersburg. Sellers are being shocked that they can not sell for at least as much as they paid 12-14 years ago. Buyers do not know what to do. The houses look overpriced, are price dropping and they do not know how much more they will drop. Long commutes and fears of prices dropping or schools rezoning is spooking buyers.
As someone looking for a single family home in Rockville/Gaithersburg/Germantown, I can tell you *good* houses do not stick on the market very long when they're priced in line with comps, and when they're in neighborhoods with good schools. A lot only stay on the market long enough to hold one open house.
Yes, some do stick on the market for a while. Many of those haven't been updated, or have poor floor plans. It turns out that when a lot of people look to shell out $700-800k on a house, they want a decent-sized, modern kitchen. That's probably the most common problem with houses that stay on the market past a few weeks.
Of the remaining houses, I've toured many of them. Even if the pictures look good, the houses often have something wrong with them. A lot of the houses built in the 80s/90s are showing their age, and the superficial updates show through when you go to the house. Musty smells in the basements were pretty common, too. Home builders did a terrible job managing drainage in these neighborhoods.
Anonymous
08/19/2019 22:41
Subject: MoCo Real Estate for the Naysayers
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Inside the beltway MoCo is still a hot market. But Potomac McMansions? Desperation will set in as retirees leave the region and MoCo's stagnant economy fails to attract new jobs.
Is there a moat with sea monsters between Potomac and DC? I’ve heard there are lots of jobs there...
There are no jobs in Potomac, no jobs in Bethesda, no jobs anywhere in MoCo. That's the point. In-beltway MoCo will do okay because the commutes into DC/VA, where there are jobs, are reasonable. But up 270 or in Potomac? Good luck.
I will let everyone in my Bethesda office know. Thanks!
Yes, same here. Last I checked, I went to Bethesda to work today. And so did hundreds of other people in our company, many of whom live in VA. And this morning , my husband drove to his job in Rockville. Weird.
The trend is your friend. People are talking about job GROWTH, of which MoCo has had essentially none in recent years.
It's true- job growth has been low in MoCo. But, population growth has been low as well. I don't think its the right thing, but the anti-development crowd is in control in the county right now. It's a stable situation, though. It's just there's a large group of people desperately fighting to maintain the status quo, for better or worse.
Anonymous
08/19/2019 22:26
Subject: MoCo Real Estate for the Naysayers
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Inside the beltway MoCo is still a hot market. But Potomac McMansions? Desperation will set in as retirees leave the region and MoCo's stagnant economy fails to attract new jobs.
Is there a moat with sea monsters between Potomac and DC? I’ve heard there are lots of jobs there...
There are no jobs in Potomac, no jobs in Bethesda, no jobs anywhere in MoCo. That's the point. In-beltway MoCo will do okay because the commutes into DC/VA, where there are jobs, are reasonable. But up 270 or in Potomac? Good luck.
I will let everyone in my Bethesda office know. Thanks!
Yes, same here. Last I checked, I went to Bethesda to work today. And so did hundreds of other people in our company, many of whom live in VA. And this morning , my husband drove to his job in Rockville. Weird.
The trend is your friend. People are talking about job GROWTH, of which MoCo has had essentially none in recent years.
Really? PP said there are no jobs anywhere in MoCo. Or are you making assumptions on what PP meant?
Anonymous
08/19/2019 21:59
Subject: MoCo Real Estate for the Naysayers
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Inside the beltway MoCo is still a hot market. But Potomac McMansions? Desperation will set in as retirees leave the region and MoCo's stagnant economy fails to attract new jobs.
Is there a moat with sea monsters between Potomac and DC? I’ve heard there are lots of jobs there...
There are no jobs in Potomac, no jobs in Bethesda, no jobs anywhere in MoCo. That's the point. In-beltway MoCo will do okay because the commutes into DC/VA, where there are jobs, are reasonable. But up 270 or in Potomac? Good luck.
I will let everyone in my Bethesda office know. Thanks!
Yes, same here. Last I checked, I went to Bethesda to work today. And so did hundreds of other people in our company, many of whom live in VA. And this morning , my husband drove to his job in Rockville. Weird.
The trend is your friend. People are talking about job GROWTH, of which MoCo has had essentially none in recent years.
Anonymous
08/19/2019 21:14
Subject: MoCo Real Estate for the Naysayers
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Inside the beltway MoCo is still a hot market. But Potomac McMansions? Desperation will set in as retirees leave the region and MoCo's stagnant economy fails to attract new jobs.
Is there a moat with sea monsters between Potomac and DC? I’ve heard there are lots of jobs there...
There are no jobs in Potomac, no jobs in Bethesda, no jobs anywhere in MoCo. That's the point. In-beltway MoCo will do okay because the commutes into DC/VA, where there are jobs, are reasonable. But up 270 or in Potomac? Good luck.
I will let everyone in my Bethesda office know. Thanks!
Yes, same here. Last I checked, I went to Bethesda to work today. And so did hundreds of other people in our company, many of whom live in VA. And this morning , my husband drove to his job in Rockville. Weird.
Anonymous
08/19/2019 20:49
Subject: MoCo Real Estate for the Naysayers
I am normally very impressed with MoCo real estate. Last summer 4 houses close to mine(one next to mine) sold the same day or while they were "coming soon," and for more money. Outside of beltway. This summer, not so much. One house has been sitting on the market since May, and now they lowered the price by almost 50K, the other one is sitting and I get why, they overpriced ti by at least 45K. The other houses in nearby subdivisions, are also taking longer to sell. There is a huge house with 3 acres that is selling for 740K, except it is not selling at all. So, maybe haters of MoCo from NoVa are right, at least for this year.
Anonymous
08/19/2019 18:53
Subject: MoCo Real Estate for the Naysayers
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Inside the beltway MoCo is still a hot market. But Potomac McMansions? Desperation will set in as retirees leave the region and MoCo's stagnant economy fails to attract new jobs.
Is there a moat with sea monsters between Potomac and DC? I’ve heard there are lots of jobs there...
There are no jobs in Potomac, no jobs in Bethesda, no jobs anywhere in MoCo. That's the point. In-beltway MoCo will do okay because the commutes into DC/VA, where there are jobs, are reasonable. But up 270 or in Potomac? Good luck.
I will let everyone in my Bethesda office know. Thanks!
Anonymous
08/19/2019 17:40
Subject: Re:MoCo Real Estate for the Naysayers
Anonymous wrote:PP is a guaranteed troll and did not even bother to review the data. Sales closed over last year up 8%. Avg price at the highs. Go away troll.
+1. Houses are going reasonably fast in my neighborhood in Silver Spring and nothing is sitting unless someone ignored common sense and way overpriced - so stupid to take huge areas as well as different price points and generalize. Makes no sense unless the person has an agenda.
Anonymous
08/19/2019 17:12
Subject: Re:MoCo Real Estate for the Naysayers
PP is a guaranteed troll and did not even bother to review the data. Sales closed over last year up 8%. Avg price at the highs. Go away troll.
Anonymous
08/19/2019 16:56
Subject: Re:MoCo Real Estate for the Naysayers
I think the point is that if you compare MOCO appreciation against the year after the housing crash things look OK as long as you don't look at how well has done NOVA. If you compare MOCO to before or even a few years before the housing crash then it looks bad.
Outside of Bethesda, houses are sitting, being delisted, turned into rentals, and dropping prices. For whatever reason, there are A LOT of houses on the market throughout Silver Spring, Rockville. Potomac, North Potomac and Gaithersburg. Sellers are being shocked that they can not sell for at least as much as they paid 12-14 years ago. Buyers do not know what to do. The houses look overpriced, are price dropping and they do not know how much more they will drop. Long commutes and fears of prices dropping or schools rezoning is spooking buyers.
Outside of Bethesda, houses are sitting, being delisted, turned into rentals, and dropping prices. For whatever reason, there are A LOT of houses on the market throughout Silver Spring, Rockville. Potomac, North Potomac and Gaithersburg. Sellers are being shocked that they can not sell for at least as much as they paid 12-14 years ago. Buyers do not know what to do. The houses look overpriced, are price dropping and they do not know how much more they will drop. Long commutes and fears of prices dropping or schools rezoning is spooking buyers.
Anonymous
08/19/2019 16:54
Subject: MoCo Real Estate for the Naysayers
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Inside the beltway MoCo is still a hot market. But Potomac McMansions? Desperation will set in as retirees leave the region and MoCo's stagnant economy fails to attract new jobs.
Is there a moat with sea monsters between Potomac and DC? I’ve heard there are lots of jobs there...
There are no jobs in Potomac, no jobs in Bethesda, no jobs anywhere in MoCo. That's the point. In-beltway MoCo will do okay because the commutes into DC/VA, where there are jobs, are reasonable. But up 270 or in Potomac? Good luck.
There are a ton of jobs outside the beltway in moco.
Govt/ hospitals/colleges/biotech/lawyers/accountants/builders/etc