Look here for UVA application information:

http://uvaapplication.blogspot.com/2019/05/updates-for-uva-class-of-2023-and.html#disqus_thread

You can feel the nervousness seeping out of this thread.

Anonymous wrote:No. My kid goes to TJ, and the guidance office there specifically says that no student should consider UVA a safety. Period. Highly likely for some kids? Sure. But not a given and big surprises every year.

Michigan is arguably a heavier lift (depending on if you want engineering).

TJ considers VCU, GMU and Pitt safeties. Almost every kid who applied will be admitted. (Aside: Pitt is strange for TJ. Most year well over TJ kids apply to Pitt as a safety and every single one is admitted— 100%— almost all with significant merit).

Remember how you should define safety: your kid is certain to get in and you can definitely find a way for them and/or you to pay. The worst case scenario. But that definition, no. UVA can be a low target. But virtually never a safety.

Has something changed in the last 2 years? Because our 2017 TJ grad on the advice of her counselor had one safety - UVA. And you could see on the scattergram that above a certain GPA/SAT combo, every kid got in.

I also see the same pattern on our base school scattergram - again above a certain GPA/SAT, everyone (except one red X) got in.

Anonymous wrote:Anecdotes from two years ago are meaningless -- UVA is a reach even with 1500+ SAT and top grades

For what it's worth, my DD entered in fall of 2016, so is a rising senior. I've watched the GPA and score stats go up -- as well as the no. of applicatiions (10% increase this year to over 40,000 applications). I am sure that my DD would not get in today. It's just that much more competitive.

Anecdotes from two years ago are meaningless -- UVA is a reach even with 1500+ SAT and top grades

Anonymous wrote:Yes. And anyone saying otherwise is a lunatic alum or some Tailgate State parent with a kid who's a current student, who acts like their kid is at Yale. Hoi polloi are so freaking cringe when it comes to state school admissions.

The only reason top stats kids get rejected or waitlisted from UVA or Michigan is because they have literally zero ties to the college and admissions can easily tease out you just shotgun blasted apps out for bragging rights, i.e. they assume you have no intention of going there.

This is incorrect. I know someone with those stats and brilliant ECs and a triple legacy. Did not get in.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:With those stats, yes

lol

Middle 50% SAT

UM 1380-1540
UVA 1330-1500

So no those schools aren't safeties with those stats

How is UVA ranked so much higher with lower SATs? Your data can't be right

First, scores only form a tiny component of US News calculations, and that would come from the Common Data Set, which only includes SAT section scores for enrolled students, but does not include a composite range. Often schools post a composite range on the class profile page of their website, but that could be either for admitted students (higher) or enrolled students (lower).

UM enrolled class of 2022 (common data set 2018-2019) SAT EBRW 660-730, math 670-780
UVA enrolled class of 2022 (common data set 2018-2019) SAT EBRW 660-730, math 670-770

https://obp.umich.edu/wp-content/uploads/pubdata/cds/cds_2018-2019_umaa.pdf (see section C9)
https://ias.virginia.edu/cds-2018-19

(Regardless, neither school is a safety.)

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:With those stats, yes

lol

Middle 50% SAT

UM 1380-1540
UVA 1330-1500

So no those schools aren't safeties with those stats

How is UVA ranked so much higher with lower SATs? Your data can't be right

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:With those stats, yes

lol

Middle 50% SAT

UM 1380-1540
UVA 1330-1500

So no those schools aren't safeties with those stats

Especially since unhooked NOVA kids need to be hitting the 75% on SATs and GPA to be considered (exception: TJ, where higher SATs and a slightly lower GPA are expected/ allowed).

Anonymous wrote:With those stats, yes

lol

Middle 50% SAT

UM 1380-1540
UVA 1330-1500

So no those schools aren't safeties with those stats

Anonymous wrote:With those stats, yes

Safety = will your kid have a college to attend in August. You willing to bet it all? I would say 95% sure. But, I wouldn’t get in an airplane with a 5% chance of crashing. So, no. Not a safety.

They do have ED starting next year though, and I haven’t seen the timing. Definitely would do ED if there was time to get other apps out if my kid was deferred (e.g. before Christmas).

UVA is a safety and Michigan is not.

With those stats, yes

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Yes. And anyone saying otherwise is a lunatic alum or some Tailgate State parent with a kid who's a current student, who acts like their kid is at Yale. Hoi polloi are so freaking cringe when it comes to state school admissions.

The only reason top stats kids get rejected or waitlisted from UVA or Michigan is because they have literally zero ties to the college and admissions can easily tease out you just shotgun blasted apps out for bragging rights, i.e. they assume you have no intention of going there.

And how does a school with UVA’s applicant numbers do that? And how can you guarantee a school with that low an acceptance rate won’t tease out your kid?

Because OP didn’t ask about likely to be admitted. They asked about safety. As in, you know they will be admitted. Your are willing to put all your eggs in that basket.

UVA and Michigan, if you aren’t Z List/Development of Div 1 Recruit, you don’t know. Your high stats kid is a likely admit and they lower themselves to apply to VT (not engineering) or GMU or VCU or CNU or JMU as a safety.

Go to a summer camp, campus tours, sibling, parent or grandparent alums = high likelihood of genuine interest in attending. Literally never stepped foot on campus = low likelihood. It's not rocket science.

So you think a high stats kid who does SEP and a campus tour is a guaranteed admit at UVA? Because that’s what a safety should be. A guaranteed admit. Because I know a lot of SEP alums who trudged through a campus tours for which UVA is way down on the college list. Or even second to last choice— after their genuine safety. Apparently your method of rocket science is what lead to the challenger exploding. You think many gifted kids in NOVA don’t do a SEP string? You think every kid at a competitive HS doesn’t know to at least sign up for and have a friend sign in to the campus tour, whether they actually walk the campus or not?

Do you have kids at a decent DMV HS? I suspect not.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Yes. And anyone saying otherwise is a lunatic alum or some Tailgate State parent with a kid who's a current student, who acts like their kid is at Yale. Hoi polloi are so freaking cringe when it comes to state school admissions.

The only reason top stats kids get rejected or waitlisted from UVA or Michigan is because they have literally zero ties to the college and admissions can easily tease out you just shotgun blasted apps out for bragging rights, i.e. they assume you have no intention of going there.

And how does a school with UVA’s applicant numbers do that? And how can you guarantee a school with that low an acceptance rate won’t tease out your kid?

Because OP didn’t ask about likely to be admitted. They asked about safety. As in, you know they will be admitted. Your are willing to put all your eggs in that basket.

UVA and Michigan, if you aren’t Z List/Development of Div 1 Recruit, you don’t know. Your high stats kid is a likely admit and they lower themselves to apply to VT (not engineering) or GMU or VCU or CNU or JMU as a safety.

Go to a summer camp, campus tours, sibling, parent or grandparent alums = high likelihood of genuine interest in attending. Literally never stepped foot on campus = low likelihood. It's not rocket science.