Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The charters would never change. The whole idea is that they are serving kids and families who are poorly served by DCPS. If DCPS would face reality and do what needs to be done, it wouldn't have such a problem with charters.

+1. DCPS needs to run its own race. Let the charters do their thing; DCPS can look at what is working in charters and try to emulate it. But trying to change rules to disadvantage the other sector is unlikely to work and an unnecessary diversion.

Are you saying DCPS middle schools should start at 5th grade?

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What you really need to look at is the percentage of 4th graders at places like Brent, Maury and Watkins who bail for charters for 5th. The total number of kids in charters doesn't really mean that much. If they're distributed evenly across schools, sure, no worries. But if EOTP schools are filling these charters, you have a real argument that charters are hurting DCPS's chances.

I think those 3 are geographic anomalies -- but not everyone who leaves Brent, Maury and Watkins after 4th is going to a charter school. Some are going to WOTP schools, some are leaving the city, some are going private and some go to a charter middle school. ANd many come back to DCPS for high school.

In wards 4, 5, 7 and 8 a good portion of IB families don't even use their IB schools for ES. So in the eyes of DCPS the Brent/Maury/Watkins situation isn't the crisis you think it is.

There are schools in ward 4 that have high IB just like there are schools in ward 6 that do as well. Not cool to lump all wards but then isolate Cap Hill schools.

Anonymous wrote:The charters would never change. The whole idea is that they are serving kids and families who are poorly served by DCPS. If DCPS would face reality and do what needs to be done, it wouldn't have such a problem with charters.

+1. DCPS needs to run its own race. Let the charters do their thing; DCPS can look at what is working in charters and try to emulate it. But trying to change rules to disadvantage the other sector is unlikely to work and an unnecessary diversion.

The charters would never change. The whole idea is that they are serving kids and families who are poorly served by DCPS. If DCPS would face reality and do what needs to be done, it wouldn't have such a problem with charters.

Anonymous wrote:I see what you're saying, and I don't like the post 4th grade exodus from Hardy, SH and Jefferson Academy feeders one bit. But, I don't see potential for the peeling-off to end, not unless the new Chancellor, Antwan Wilson, comes out hard against it with the strong backing of the City Council Committee on Ed. That seems really unlikely - what mechanism could the Chancellor use to force MS charters to start at 6th grade? I predict more peeling off in the future, as new charters, maybe a second Latin campus etc. perpetuate it.

The MS charters are pitching a product that sells like hot cakes- a path to 12th grade in schools high SES parents, a growing cohort in most of the city wards, are comfortable with, even excited about. Reigning them in would be like herding cats. Why should the starting-at-5th-grade MS charters move their entry year forward? To be civic-minded? What incentive do they have to help by-right middle schools, their competitors, attract students? None that I see.

The chancellor has no authority over charters. At all. So this isn't going to happen.

I see what you're saying, and I don't like the post 4th grade exodus from Hardy, SH and Jefferson Academy feeders one bit. But, I don't see potential for the peeling-off to end, not unless the new Chancellor, Antwan Wilson, comes out hard against it with the strong backing of the City Council Committee on Ed. That seems really unlikely - what mechanism could the Chancellor use to force MS charters to start at 6th grade? I predict more peeling off in the future, as new charters, maybe a second Latin campus etc. perpetuate it.

The MS charters are pitching a product that sells like hot cakes- a path to 12th grade in schools high SES parents, a growing cohort in most of the city wards, are comfortable with, even excited about. Reigning them in would be like herding cats. Why should the starting-at-5th-grade MS charters move their entry year forward? To be civic-minded? What incentive do they have to help by-right middle schools, their competitors, attract students? None that I see.

The number of students staying for 5th grade from the 4 current Hardy cluster feeders increased from around 110 total in 2014/15 to 165 in 2016/17 (based on the final enrollment counts at the school) -- ie. a 55ish student increase -- and the 6th grade class size at Hardy is only around 130 students. Reports are this is likely to be higher for this coming year. And also Eaton starts feeding into Hardy next fall too (a class of around 70 kids, where big majority have traditionally gone to Deal/public school).

If you are an IB family in the Hardy cluster or Brent, etc -
there is a disproportionate impact of even 10-15 kids going to charters for 5th -- the 'erosion' comes from these are potential public middle school path families (ie. they go to charters & not privates) -- that if these students stayed through 5th, they might be part of the growing cohort going together to middle school. The charters in 5th contributes to the 'peel off' factor much faster & giving all the parents at these schools less confidence in the middle school as a fit for their kids, with fewer kids from 'high achieving' scores attending, and, frankly, fewer of their friends attending.

So there is a chicken & egg dynamic going on... that impacts the non-Deal schools from achieving higher performance status that benefits a wide set of kids across the city - but having not just one 'acceptable' school in Deal trying to serve everyone.

True, good insight, but the trend isn't as strong as is was even a couple of years ago. Just look at Brent, with 9 4th graders re-enrolling in spring 2015 and 39 re-enrolling in spring 2017. Parents seem to be returning for 5th for a great variety of reasons: Brent's upper grades program is improving, Jefferson Academy may work out for some of these families, a number of families who landed a 5th grade spot at BASIS didn't take theirs (which had never happened before), even fewer 4th graders got into Latin this year than last, parents hope to lottery into BASIS, Latin, DCI, Two Rivers, SH or Hardy next year etc.

I see what your'e saying about the more risk adverse parents being inclined to seek MS certainty well in advance, but more Ward 6 families do seem OK with rolling with uncertainty into the DCPS upper grades locally.

It isn't just 5th grade. People make preschool decisions based in part on feeder patterns. And a satisfactory elementary school can hold people through 2nd grade, but starting in 3rd they feel compelled to leave if they get the chance, despite being overall satisfied with the elementary, if the middle school feeder isn't good.

Agree that it is not a big deal in the context of the whole system if high-performing elementary schools have a lot of 5th grade attrition. That is merely a symptom of the real problem, which is that almost all the middle schools are not good.

Anonymous wrote:What you really need to look at is the percentage of 4th graders at places like Brent, Maury and Watkins who bail for charters for 5th. The total number of kids in charters doesn't really mean that much. If they're distributed evenly across schools, sure, no worries. But if EOTP schools are filling these charters, you have a real argument that charters are hurting DCPS's chances.

I think those 3 are geographic anomalies -- but not everyone who leaves Brent, Maury and Watkins after 4th is going to a charter school. Some are going to WOTP schools, some are leaving the city, some are going private and some go to a charter middle school. ANd many come back to DCPS for high school.

In wards 4, 5, 7 and 8 a good portion of IB families don't even use their IB schools for ES. So in the eyes of DCPS the Brent/Maury/Watkins situation isn't the crisis you think it is.

What you really need to look at is the percentage of 4th graders at places like Brent, Maury and Watkins who bail for charters for 5th. The total number of kids in charters doesn't really mean that much. If they're distributed evenly across schools, sure, no worries. But if EOTP schools are filling these charters, you have a real argument that charters are hurting DCPS's chances.

Anonymous wrote:DC public schools lost a net 229 students between 5th to 6th grade (2015-16 and 2016-17 enrollment audit).

The charter sector picked up 558 students in 6th grade that it didn't have in 5th.

So the problem doesn't seem to be a handful of charter schools starting or expanding at 5th. Most of the 'exodus' happens after 5th.

By DC public schools here I mean charters + DCPS combined.

If charters did not start by 5th and offer a chance to get our of a bad situation (school was fine until 3rd grade), we wouldn't have put up with fourth grade there and would have left EVEN earlier!

DC public schools lost a net 229 students between 5th to 6th grade (2015-16 and 2016-17 enrollment audit).

The charter sector picked up 558 students in 6th grade that it didn't have in 5th.

So the problem doesn't seem to be a handful of charter schools starting or expanding at 5th. Most of the 'exodus' happens after 5th.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:There are 5500 5th graders in DCPS and charters.

The number of seats at schools which start at 5th represent a tiny percentage of the total. No need for your to attend one of them if you don't want. Chances are you won't get in anyway.

Taking this a step further --

9 charters start middle school at 5th (BASIS, Cap City, EL Haynes, Wash Latin, KIPP AIM, KIPP Key, KIPP Northeast Academy, KIPP Valor and KIPP Will).

Combined they offered 428 seats in the 17-18 lottery -- out of 5500. A drop in the proverbial bucket.

BASIS - 120
Cap City - 55
EL Haynes - 6
Wash Latin - 90
KIPP AIM - 1
KIPP Key - 1
KIPP NE Academy - 125
KIPP Valor - 25
KIPP Will - 5

Everythign isn't a conspiracy to gut traditional schools. In fact, these schools could achieve that end more easily if they were PK3-8 or 12.

NP. Thanks for the stats. Of the ~5K left do you know what the breakdown is between schools at/near capacity ( I'll need help there but guesssing deal, hardy, Stuart-Hobson, ???) and those that are far below capacity?

None of the schools you list have 5th grade.

The PP is trying to prove that these 428 would fit in the under capacity middle schools. Which is probably true, but if people wanted their children to attend those schools, they would and if that were their only choice they would move, or play the DCPS lottery for a marginally better option.

You can't put the choice genie back in the bottle. It's deeply ingrained - well over 20+ years.

That was me. I blanked on comparing 5th grade at charters to 6th at the dcps schools. I was curious about the number of the 5000 remaining in dcps that had feeder patterns they would want to use.