Also, maybe push back on the counselors recommendation of binding early decision to that state school. Can he give yoh a list of other schools with good financial aid policies?

I think you need to seek out resources to inform you about lower income minority student admissions. It sounds like this counselor may not be up to speed on kids with your son's profile. There has been a lot published in just the past few weeks about how colleges vary hugely in their admissions and financial aid policies for minority students. You really need an expert here to help you! Or do a lot of research on your own to identify the schools that would love students like your son. I just have a hunch that you cannot rey on the school counselor to really help. He may be righr about stanford, but it sounds like he is not doing a good job finding alternatives. For example columbia has a really high percentage of low income students. Twice that of stanford abd princeton! Likewise Vassar has twice as many as Washington and lee.

OP, I also have a friend elsewhere in the country, whose DC is the child of Mexican immigrants, is nationally-recognized in their signature activity, is a NMSF in a state with one of the top-four cutoffs, has close-to a 4.0 unweighted GPA, and is again, a high 2300 SAT.

This is all to say that there are many strong candidates not only here, but around the world, including many strong diversity candidates, and your DC is among them. Since, obviously, not everyone among this cohort is admitted, the college counselor at these schools tend to give you the "worst-case scenario" advice.

OP, did you attend college in the US? Did your spouse?
Did you attend in your native country or not? Your answers will also have an impact on admission chances.

OP please take note of the many commenters here suggesting you reign in your expectations. That is not to say that you don't reach. But I think those of us who have been through this before read with concern that your setting up your son (and yourself) up for disappointment. Your son will get in to a great school and you need to make room for him to be proud and happy with his eventual college/university

OP, if it will make you feel any better, my child is also Latino (Spanish is first language), but with much higher unweighted GPA (high 3.9s), and SAT score (almost perfect) and we are also being advised cautiously. Admission to the very top schools is difficult for everyone.

In other words, do not take it personally, or think that the school or its guidance counselor is somehow discriminating against your child. They are not, but they are trying to help the students set realistic goals.

That said, have your child apply wherever they want to in terms of dream or reach schools.

Hey, I don't know how to break it to you but even your updated information for your kid makes it a long shot for Stanford. I know of three kids from our ``top 3'' school who had stronger profile and did not get in.

That said, there is nothing stopping you from applying. But, as other parents warned you....don't turn this application process in to a huge negative for your kid by overshooting. You are setting him up to feel bad about the good places he will get in to.

First of all, I believe someone will review all the letters the college guidance counselor writes. They have a code of ethics and won't ding a student -- that would be obvious to the schools. If you are concerned that the letter won't be strong enough, the letters from the teachers can make up for that.

You might also look into SLACs that have generous scholarships.

One final question -- is it possible that the guidance counselor was advising you in a clumsy way that your DC would be unhappy at these schools. if so, he could of course be speaking out of prejudice but you may want to also give it some thought. My DC with very high scores and grades but an alternative, very non-preppy, non-Greek bent, realized she would be very unhappy at any of these schools and looked elsewhere.

It's hard to know without being there whether the college counselor just does not know your kid and is being overly cautious, or whether you are being overly optimistic. I would say often there is a bit of both going on--I had my heart set on a SLAC that my college counselor thought was totally out of my reach due to the stats of prior admits. I got in, because it was a place that had holistic admissions and was looking for a certain sort of student, and took the "Why X College" essay very seriously. On the other hand, my dad wanted me to apply to Stanford "just because" when I wasn't even close to being qualified--which would have just been a waste of an application.

I would not set your heart on getting into Princeton, Williams, Stanford, etc. because the acceptance rates are 5-10% and make sure that you apply to safeties and match schools as well. But I would send in applications to those schools anyway. If you are first generation immigrants, your DC does have a story to tell, and I wouldn't have her shy away from that.

Send in applications to your "dream" schools, but also to some safeties. Also don't apply ED, so you can compare financial aid packages.

If your child is interested in research - please apply to Washington University in St. Louis. I am an alum and know that there is a lot of money for a child with your child's profile.

OP ~ check out what is needed for DC to qualify as an Hispanic Scholar (through the SAT/College Board).

Ignore and your DC should apply where they want.

If DC writes a killer essay if will probably override the importance of the counselor's specific recommendation letter. It's still a long shot for admittance. I would keep your/DC's strategy to yourself. Try to fly under the radar as much as you can while still giving plenty of attention to safety and match choices/applications.

You're right. The counselor is concerned with the HS as a whole. Counselors are risk adverse. Much nicer if everyone is placed and is happy with their placement.

You don't have to play along, just do it very quietly.

OP here. Thank you for all the responses! You do not know how much I appreciate your thoughts and insights yet I'm not sure we're precisely addressing the issue. That being said, there are several things I would like to clarify:

1. DC's GPA trended up from a 3.7 freshman year (first year at the school) to a 3.89 which, by all measures, seems to be very competitive at Big 3 schools. So, it is not a case of DC starting at a 2.5GPA, for example. Counselor said that DC ranges between top 5% and top 10%, depending on the semester.
2. I agree that the SAT is low. With tutoring its now hovering around 2250-2300 so hopefully that will improve.
3. I did not want to mention this, because I know there will be backlash, but my spouse and I are from Central America so, yes, my DC is "Latino" yet does not phenotypically appear to be so.
4. We are on financial aid at DC's school yet have clearly stated that finances are not an issue when it comes to college. This is an investment which will be on DC's CV for life-my spouse and I have been saving accordingly. Nonetheless, we still fall within the financial aid parameters for most well-endowed schools.

Again, I understand how competitive college admissions are and am by no means devaluing the rigor of other academic institutions. What concerns me is that my DC is in the same GPA/SAT/extracurricular range as other students who are being ushered to competitive schools whereas he specifically seems not to be. In fact, during our conversation, he abruptly said "just don't apply there" in reference to Princeton and Stanford. Only later, with pressure, did he qualify his statement using vague terms such as "profile" and "fit" without referring to concrete numbers. According to Naviance, DC is within GPA/SAT range for HYPSM schools.

What I really would like to know is why the school is so intent on DC applying to this binding scholarship for an out-of-state state school, early decision. Am I wrong or overly suspicious? If the top 5-10% of students at Big-3 schools do not get into Ivies, then who does?

If you do have access to Naviance information, keep in mind that the GPAs are final GPAs calculated after students graduate. If you have a kid who is taking more challenging courses each year, and doing well, his or her GPA should improve senior year.

I did get the sense that the counselors at our school were making recommendations without factoring that into account, with a similar view towards maximizing the school's ability to say kids were getting into the schools to which they applied. But, the advice to have safeties, targets and reaches is, in theory, always a good strategy.

Continued, my DC has very strong credentials, but we are advised also very cautiously by the school counselor.

My advice to you is to have your child apply to two or three reach schools that they really would love to attend, and then apply to three or four others that are solidly within their range.