Anonymous
Post 06/25/2014 11:40     Subject: Re:DME proposal - 2015-16 deadline? Why?
Anonymous wrote:
For example, the several thousand students stuck in under-resourced K-8 schools with limited academic or extracurricular options. How many years do those kids have to waste while we wait on a plan that is going to be palatable to every constituency?

The revised changes are so modest that I think fears of a mass exodus are not really credible.


Agree


+1

The hysteria about the city-wide lotteries and how it would destroy DCPS and cause flight to the suburbs, that was all justified IMO. That was some scary stuff. But the final proposal was modest and I don't believe that it will hurt overall faith in DC public education at all. For sure, a small number of parents in a small number of affected neighborhoods may move, but I am not even convinced of that.

Anonymous
Post 06/25/2014 11:24     Subject: Re:DME proposal - 2015-16 deadline? Why?
Programming the lottery computer is what these 20-somethings are good at.
Understanding parents' concerns, navigating the complicated DCPS system, understanding real estate and changing neighborhoods...that is a completely different story.

The computer system is the last piece to worry about.
Anonymous
Post 06/25/2014 11:19     Subject: DME proposal - 2015-16 deadline? Why?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
jsteele wrote:
Anonymous wrote:There is no way they'll be able to pull off the lottery come December with so much reprogramming necessary based on address changes, new levels of preference, etc. Gray and his successor may embrace the changes but the people tasked to put it into play will fail miserably. Curious how many charters will continue to agree to be part of a unified lottery.


I talked to the person from DME responsible for the technical side of thee myschoolsdc.com lottery and she said that it will be very easy to get it ready for the new boundaries. I was surprised, but she was very confident.


Sorry, I don't buy it. The people who launched the Federal Health Insurance Exchange were confident too and there were contracts in place that dwarf whatever My School DC has. We're talking a brand new lottery based on new boundaries, new preference (at-risk), set asides that vary in percentage (elementary v. 6th v. 9th) and will be different for each school based on current at-risk percentages compared to the full enrollment (or is school capacity or how will it be calculated?) and a system where principals are going to be striped of their authority to handle their own waitlist. Plus principals at some schools are going to have to stand ready to offer PS3 and PK spots to anyone in-boundary as a matter of right, regardless of what the space or personnel budget allows. It is going to be very complex and they will have to execute it well, otherwise people will not trust the results. Let's remember that DCPS sent out prepopulated enrollment paperwork this year which all indicated the wrong grade for current DCPS students.


No IT person thought ACA was going to work correctly out of the box, way too many different entities to deal with. DC's lottery is no where near as complex, no matter how many rules you add. The algorithm is already in place and more importantly, the school staffs and parents will have a year of training under their belt.


+1. It is not difficult to program new addresses/boundaries. It is not difficult to make for guaranteed IB for PK3 and PK4 (for Title 1 schools) as they would not be a part of the lottery, would work just like K does now. Not difficult to add a new preference (at risk), that is, once they announce how it will be determined a family is at risk. All of the proposals are pretty easy as far as programming.

To the OP's point about middle schools not being open yet, that's easy, you keep your boundaries for the schools you had this year (ie, programming would keep Crestwood IB for Deal etc).
Anonymous
Post 06/25/2014 10:26     Subject: Re:DME proposal - 2015-16 deadline? Why?
For example, the several thousand students stuck in under-resourced K-8 schools with limited academic or extracurricular options. How many years do those kids have to waste while we wait on a plan that is going to be palatable to every constituency?

The revised changes are so modest that I think fears of a mass exodus are not really credible.


Agree
Anonymous
Post 06/25/2014 10:24     Subject: Re:DME proposal - 2015-16 deadline? Why?
Opportunity costs for which segments of the population?


The opportunity is a large pool of families with children not yet in school and/or in the early grades. If they're lost, it's a cost to the entire system. That's not to say that families making choices for middle and high school aren't important, but the objective is to boost enrollment from the bottom and create more stable feeder patterns from PS through 12th grades. If you're in boundary for a good school, you want to reduce the overcrowding for more manageable class sizes. If you're headed for a failing school, you want more families in that school who will at least give it a try and maybe stay to help it improve. But redistributing families into the schools closest to where they live is only part of the equation.

A big factor in quality and raising test scores that no one really talks about is all the shifting around that families do as they try to find a better fit. In classrooms outside of the handful of stable quality elementary schools, it's not unusual to have students that have been through three different schools by the time they take the CAS in third grade. Those frequent jumps have a cumulative effect - not only on an individual child's learning, but also on the classrooms that get an ever changing population of kids. It's not easy to track progress and see what's working and what's not when the cohort is completely different from one grade to the next.
Anonymous
Post 06/25/2014 09:30     Subject: DME proposal - 2015-16 deadline? Why?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Good point about the dangers of waiting too long... Lose even more families.


The opportunity cost of delaying is real.


Opportunity costs for which segments of the population?

If this proposal goes through some families that can afford to leave will leave DCPS and will possibly leave the district. We are looking seriously at private schools and have already starting researching real estate just on the other side of the DC on the Maryland line. We know two young couples who desperately wanted to move to DC, both have moved to Maryland within the last two months driven by this self-made DME school problem in the District. The real factor is that you currently pay a premium to live in DC where the schools are lower performing. It is very easy for most middle-income people to move, because a home somewhere else will likely be cheaper.

We are on the downward side of the curve for demand. For example, people are boosting Wilson right now because short-sighted DCPS proposals scared parents away from Walls. I live near Wilson and many of our neighbors opted for Walls, this has reversed in less than two years because of bad policy. It is not that Wilson has gotten better, it is that Walls is now considered unacceptable. Walls had to re-open the lottery at least one additional time in the most recent round and is still not near capacity or projections. DCPS essentially is causing any crowding by removing options for families, simply through poor policy decisions and a lack of planning.

There is so much that is wrong with the DME proposal process (no tie to budgeting, transit planning, demand, proximity, walkability, and poor data fundamentals).

If the DME continues this process demand will immediately fall because children will be out of the system. However the more stable families won't be going to charters as the DME is betting, they will go suburban or private.


For example, the several thousand students stuck in under-resourced K-8 schools with limited academic or extracurricular options. How many years do those kids have to waste while we wait on a plan that is going to be palatable to every constituency?

The revised changes are so modest that I think fears of a mass exodus are not really credible.
Anonymous
Post 06/25/2014 07:46     Subject: DME proposal - 2015-16 deadline? Why?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Good point about the dangers of waiting too long... Lose even more families.


The opportunity cost of delaying is real.


Opportunity costs for which segments of the population?

If this proposal goes through some families that can afford to leave will leave DCPS and will possibly leave the district. We are looking seriously at private schools and have already starting researching real estate just on the other side of the DC on the Maryland line. We know two young couples who desperately wanted to move to DC, both have moved to Maryland within the last two months driven by this self-made DME school problem in the District. The real factor is that you currently pay a premium to live in DC where the schools are lower performing. It is very easy for most middle-income people to move, because a home somewhere else will likely be cheaper.

We are on the downward side of the curve for demand. For example, people are boosting Wilson right now because short-sighted DCPS proposals scared parents away from Walls. I live near Wilson and many of our neighbors opted for Walls, this has reversed in less than two years because of bad policy. It is not that Wilson has gotten better, it is that Walls is now considered unacceptable. Walls had to re-open the lottery at least one additional time in the most recent round and is still not near capacity or projections. DCPS essentially is causing any crowding by removing options for families, simply through poor policy decisions and a lack of planning.

There is so much that is wrong with the DME proposal process (no tie to budgeting, transit planning, demand, proximity, walkability, and poor data fundamentals).

If the DME continues this process demand will immediately fall because children will be out of the system. However the more stable families won't be going to charters as the DME is betting, they will go suburban or private.
Anonymous
Post 06/24/2014 23:28     Subject: Re:DME proposal - 2015-16 deadline? Why?
can anyone post the letter from Mary Cheh that is in response to the second round of proposals?
Anonymous
Post 06/24/2014 23:18     Subject: DME proposal - 2015-16 deadline? Why?
Anonymous wrote:
jsteele wrote:
Anonymous wrote:There is no way they'll be able to pull off the lottery come December with so much reprogramming necessary based on address changes, new levels of preference, etc. Gray and his successor may embrace the changes but the people tasked to put it into play will fail miserably. Curious how many charters will continue to agree to be part of a unified lottery.


I talked to the person from DME responsible for the technical side of thee myschoolsdc.com lottery and she said that it will be very easy to get it ready for the new boundaries. I was surprised, but she was very confident.


Sorry, I don't buy it. The people who launched the Federal Health Insurance Exchange were confident too and there were contracts in place that dwarf whatever My School DC has. We're talking a brand new lottery based on new boundaries, new preference (at-risk), set asides that vary in percentage (elementary v. 6th v. 9th) and will be different for each school based on current at-risk percentages compared to the full enrollment (or is school capacity or how will it be calculated?) and a system where principals are going to be striped of their authority to handle their own waitlist. Plus principals at some schools are going to have to stand ready to offer PS3 and PK spots to anyone in-boundary as a matter of right, regardless of what the space or personnel budget allows. It is going to be very complex and they will have to execute it well, otherwise people will not trust the results. Let's remember that DCPS sent out prepopulated enrollment paperwork this year which all indicated the wrong grade for current DCPS students.


Are you seriously comparing the complexity of administering the Affordable Care Act with the school lottery? People said the lottery would fail this year, and it's been a resounding success. It's not like DME is running it on its own--it is outsourcing it to an org run by a Nobel prize winner for setting up a matching process. I'm positive they can do it well if they have the go-ahead--I'm just not sure whether the process will move forward, given political realities.