Anonymous
Post 05/23/2014 09:38     Subject: Re:MRIS list of "hottest" DC neighborhoods (based on days on market)
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Ask your husband to explain what a median is, dear. That'll clear things up.

To argue the data MUST be incorrect since it doesn't match your ignorant prior belief and limited interim updating is the height of folly. Kudos.



Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:A look at Redfin will show tons of Spring Valley houses just sitting, while the 20001 is hot with very little inventory. Don't know where they got their data but they are off.


It's the MRIS blog, so they get their data from, wait for it, MRIS.

Thanks. I was being ironic because their data are off.

Thanks for your kind reply. I have a master in Probability and Stats so I think I know what a median is, that's why I was saying they can't be right about SV.
The article is full of errors anyway, an intern probably wrote it.


Sure you do. How's that old adage go? If you say it in an anonymous online forum, then it must be true.

Your courses should have covered different measures of centrality. Should have. Sometimes this is presumed knowledge from undergrad, so you are forgiven for not understanding these concepts.

Survivorship bias and other sample composition issues should have been covered too. Rule number 1: understand your data generating process. Survivorship bias is causing a sample selection problem here that's preventing you from making valid inference. If there are 1,000 houses sitting forever, but another 1,001 houses that sold within 10 days, it's unsurprising that you would have the impression that so many homes are sitting forever. Since homes that sell quickly are often removed from Redfin/etc. once they go under contract, your sample of data almost necessarily omits these homes and is biased to show only homes that are sitting. The quick sellers simply don't show up unless you're sampling in real time, which you are not. It remains entirely true that the median home in this example sells within 10 days despite all appearances to the contrary.

But, hey, it's easier to blame the computer ("I don't know; that's what the computer says...") or slander an intern for the limits of your own knowledge and reasoning.


Listen, you seriously need to calm down a bit. You are taking this issue way too seriously. Did you write the article?
Let's have a quick look at the SV market right now. There are about roughly 13 houses on sale right now. In the extremely unlikely event that they all go under contract tomorrow, we will get a median time on the market of about 50 days. Because we know that they won't all go under contract tomorrow, it is safe to assume that right now in SV the median time on the market is more than 50 days therefore more than 10 days.
It may be
Anonymous
Post 05/23/2014 08:20     Subject: Re:MRIS list of "hottest" DC neighborhoods (based on days on market)
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Ask your husband to explain what a median is, dear. That'll clear things up.

To argue the data MUST be incorrect since it doesn't match your ignorant prior belief and limited interim updating is the height of folly. Kudos.



Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:A look at Redfin will show tons of Spring Valley houses just sitting, while the 20001 is hot with very little inventory. Don't know where they got their data but they are off.


It's the MRIS blog, so they get their data from, wait for it, MRIS.

Thanks. I was being ironic because their data are off.

Thanks for your kind reply. I have a master in Probability and Stats so I think I know what a median is, that's why I was saying they can't be right about SV.
The article is full of errors anyway, an intern probably wrote it.


Sure you do. How's that old adage go? If you say it in an anonymous online forum, then it must be true.

Your courses should have covered different measures of centrality. Should have. Sometimes this is presumed knowledge from undergrad, so you are forgiven for not understanding these concepts.

Survivorship bias and other sample composition issues should have been covered too. Rule number 1: understand your data generating process. Survivorship bias is causing a sample selection problem here that's preventing you from making valid inference. If there are 1,000 houses sitting forever, but another 1,001 houses that sold within 10 days, it's unsurprising that you would have the impression that so many homes are sitting forever. Since homes that sell quickly are often removed from Redfin/etc. once they go under contract, your sample of data almost necessarily omits these homes and is biased to show only homes that are sitting. The quick sellers simply don't show up unless you're sampling in real time, which you are not. It remains entirely true that the median home in this example sells within 10 days despite all appearances to the contrary.

But, hey, it's easier to blame the computer ("I don't know; that's what the computer says...") or slander an intern for the limits of your own knowledge and reasoning.
Anonymous
Post 05/23/2014 04:19     Subject: Re:MRIS list of "hottest" DC neighborhoods (based on days on market)
Anonymous wrote:Ask your husband to explain what a median is, dear. That'll clear things up.

To argue the data MUST be incorrect since it doesn't match your ignorant prior belief and limited interim updating is the height of folly. Kudos.



Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:A look at Redfin will show tons of Spring Valley houses just sitting, while the 20001 is hot with very little inventory. Don't know where they got their data but they are off.


It's the MRIS blog, so they get their data from, wait for it, MRIS.

Thanks. I was being ironic because their data are off.

Thanks for your kind reply. I have a master in Probability and Stats so I think I know what a median is, that's why I was saying they can't be right about SV.
The article is full of errors anyway, an intern probably wrote it.
Anonymous
Post 05/23/2014 01:45     Subject: MRIS list of "hottest" DC neighborhoods (based on days on market)
Anonymous wrote:Surprised Pimmit Hills is not on the list *ducks*


I LOL'd
Anonymous
Post 05/23/2014 01:22     Subject: MRIS list of "hottest" DC neighborhoods (based on days on market)
Dear, now why are the children fighting? Really, it's so cute.
Anonymous
Post 05/22/2014 23:03     Subject: Re:MRIS list of "hottest" DC neighborhoods (based on days on market)
I think I have cracked the case. The agent hater on here MUST be an agent for REDFIN! Or TRYING to be one . . .

You will never work or live in Spring Valley. You will never work or live in Cleveland Park. You probably live in your mother's basement in Pimmett Hills!!! IN A RENTAL! I apologize if I spelled Pimmett Hills incorrectly!
Anonymous
Post 05/22/2014 20:37     Subject: Re:MRIS list of "hottest" DC neighborhoods (based on days on market)
Ask your husband to explain what a median is, dear. That'll clear things up.

To argue the data MUST be incorrect since it doesn't match your ignorant prior belief and limited interim updating is the height of folly. Kudos.



Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:A look at Redfin will show tons of Spring Valley houses just sitting, while the 20001 is hot with very little inventory. Don't know where they got their data but they are off.


It's the MRIS blog, so they get their data from, wait for it, MRIS.

Thanks. I was being ironic because their data are off.
Anonymous
Post 05/22/2014 20:36     Subject: Re:MRIS list of "hottest" DC neighborhoods (based on days on market)
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:A look at Redfin will show tons of Spring Valley houses just sitting, while the 20001 is hot with very little inventory. Don't know where they got their data but they are off.


It's the MRIS blog, so they get their data from, wait for it, MRIS.

Thanks. I was being ironic because their data are off.


The article doesn't include data about days on market - it just says that these are ten neighborhoods where the average DOM is less than 10 days. Doesn't mean that there aren't many other neighborhoods that meet that criteria.
Anonymous
Post 05/22/2014 19:06     Subject: MRIS list of "hottest" DC neighborhoods (based on days on market)
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Surprised Pimmit Hills is not on the list *ducks*


DC city, if you include the suburbs I think Arlington and Bethesda would be on the list.


Takoma Park is a suburb in MD, and is different from Takoma DC. So clearly they did include suburbs.


Calling it Takoma Park was a mistake, but the data and description refers to the Takoma DC neighborhood.
Anonymous
Post 05/22/2014 18:58     Subject: Re:MRIS list of "hottest" DC neighborhoods (based on days on market)
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:A look at Redfin will show tons of Spring Valley houses just sitting, while the 20001 is hot with very little inventory. Don't know where they got their data but they are off.


It's the MRIS blog, so they get their data from, wait for it, MRIS.

Thanks. I was being ironic because their data are off.
Anonymous
Post 05/22/2014 18:34     Subject: MRIS list of "hottest" DC neighborhoods (based on days on market)
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Surprised Pimmit Hills is not on the list *ducks*


DC city, if you include the suburbs I think Arlington and Bethesda would be on the list.


Takoma Park is a suburb in MD, and is different from Takoma DC. So clearly they did include suburbs.
Anonymous
Post 05/22/2014 18:32     Subject: Re:MRIS list of "hottest" DC neighborhoods (based on days on market)
Anonymous wrote:A look at Redfin will show tons of Spring Valley houses just sitting, while the 20001 is hot with very little inventory. Don't know where they got their data but they are off.


It's the MRIS blog, so they get their data from, wait for it, MRIS.
Anonymous
Post 05/22/2014 18:31     Subject: MRIS list of "hottest" DC neighborhoods (based on days on market)
hmmm...I believe the Takoma side of DC is just "Takoma" - not "Takoma Park".
Anonymous
Post 05/22/2014 18:29     Subject: Re:MRIS list of "hottest" DC neighborhoods (based on days on market)
A look at Redfin will show tons of Spring Valley houses just sitting, while the 20001 is hot with very little inventory. Don't know where they got their data but they are off.
Anonymous
Post 05/22/2014 16:06     Subject: MRIS list of "hottest" DC neighborhoods (based on days on market)
Anonymous wrote:Old city #1 = Capitol Hill


Old City is not Capitol Hill. It can be Langston-Carver, parts of Trinidad, and the neighborhoods surrounding Capitol Hill.