The jobs comment is spot on. People generally "move" for 4 reasons: (1) to adjust housing consumption, (2) to get a new job, (3) to retire or (4) they die (the final move). When there are no jobs elsewhere, (2) dries up. When seniors aren't comfortable with their 401k balances, (3) dries up. Because there are fewer type-(2) and type-(3) moves, there is less inventory, so moving to getting a bigger/smaller home becomes less prevalent. We then end up with a housing market that is entirely driven by the death of the elderly. Virtually every home in our neighborhood that has gone up for sale in the past two years has been an estate sale. QE arguably made things even worse in places like DC because of the interest rate lock-in that could jam up the housing market for the next decade. I suspect that in terms of volume, things are not going to be back to normal for a very long time.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Besides people not wanting to give up their low interest rates, they also can't sell even if they wanted to because there is no house to move to unless they are moving out of the area or way out to the burbs. The entire market is just locked up.

I think this is accurate in a lot of cases. Every house we've seriously pursued since we've been looking has been owned by an older couple with grown children who is retiring out of the area. However, we've looked at a lot of houses owned by younger families, too, so it's not universally true. I don't know where those families planned to go, though.

What's going to break this self-reinforcing cycle?

Job mobility and growth in the rest of the country outside the bubble areas of DC/SF/LA/NYC...

There used to be booming economies in the sunbelt, but now they have nothing. Rust belt is barely hanging on. Texas is not doing too bad but can't absorb everyone.

It's really a jobs problem, which is why Yellen will fix it.

Also, people can't retired and move to Florida b/c their 'conservative' investments are earning 0%; retirees are freaked out by stock market roller coaster, so can't (and shouldn't) take on riskier assets, so they really can't retire fully either. Yellen will fix this too: QE winds down 2015, 6 months later rates rise. Boom retirees now have a little cash flow and can buy that condo in Boca AND have money for food/med.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Besides people not wanting to give up their low interest rates, they also can't sell even if they wanted to because there is no house to move to unless they are moving out of the area or way out to the burbs. The entire market is just locked up.

I think this is accurate in a lot of cases. Every house we've seriously pursued since we've been looking has been owned by an older couple with grown children who is retiring out of the area. However, we've looked at a lot of houses owned by younger families, too, so it's not universally true. I don't know where those families planned to go, though.

What's going to break this self-reinforcing cycle?

Job mobility and growth in the rest of the country outside the bubble areas of DC/SF/LA/NYC...

There used to be booming economies in the sunbelt, but now they have nothing. Rust belt is barely hanging on. Texas is not doing too bad but can't absorb everyone.

It's really a jobs problem, which is why Yellen will fix it.

Also, people can't retired and move to Florida b/c their 'conservative' investments are earning 0%; retirees are freaked out by stock market roller coaster, so can't (and shouldn't) take on riskier assets, so they really can't retire fully either. Yellen will fix this too: QE winds down 2015, 6 months later rates rise. Boom retirees now have a little cash flow and can buy that condo in Boca AND have money for food/med.

Anonymous wrote:Besides people not wanting to give up their low interest rates, they also can't sell even if they wanted to because there is no house to move to unless they are moving out of the area or way out to the burbs. The entire market is just locked up.

I think this is accurate in a lot of cases. Every house we've seriously pursued since we've been looking has been owned by an older couple with grown children who is retiring out of the area. However, we've looked at a lot of houses owned by younger families, too, so it's not universally true. I don't know where those families planned to go, though.

What's going to break this self-reinforcing cycle?

4-bedrooms on the same floor in Arlington are pretty rare. There are a lot more 4-bedroom options in 2 up/2 main cape cods and 3 up/1 lower configurations. If you don't actually have 3 kids, consider something with a guest room on the lower level to open your pool a little.

(we have a 2 up/2 main cape. It's great for us, but some people don't want a kid downstairs away from mom/dad.)

Besides people not wanting to give up their low interest rates, they also can't sell even if they wanted to because there is no house to move to unless they are moving out of the area or way out to the burbs. The entire market is just locked up.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What are you looking for and what's your budget?

4 bedrooms..basement for kids is a plus. Need a yard but doesn't need to be huge. Budget 2.4max. Very little comes up.

We are looking in the same price bracket in Kent/WH but haven't seen any "good" houses come up either.

Even 3+ inventory is pretty lousy in Arlington right now.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Keep in mind these are percentage increases coming off of very low levels, especially for single-family homes in Arlington. We are looking now, and there is very little on the market with 4+ beds.

4+ bedrooms in Arlington are exceptionally rare. That is just something you have to build.

Anonymous wrote:Refinancing boom has locked up the market bc no one willing to move up. People will rent out at a real loss to keep the magical low rates (but in real terms they are just average we just have mild deflation to compare to)

At some point this bubble too will pop, and all these holdouts will rush for the exits at once, we will see normal inventor, and things may get interesting.

Still curious: what jobs are growing here?

which bubble? I'm not sure what you mean.

Anonymous wrote:Keep in mind these are percentage increases coming off of very low levels, especially for single-family homes in Arlington. We are looking now, and there is very little on the market with 4+ beds.

4+ bedrooms in Arlington are exceptionally rare. That is just something you have to build.

Keep in mind these are percentage increases coming off of very low levels, especially for single-family homes in Arlington. We are looking now, and there is very little on the market with 4+ beds.

Doesn't seem to hold true to Bethesda though, so only a DOD sequester related pullback?

Hmm, I think the market is in full force. Unless I am reading this wrong, inventory of homes for sale is up 30% from last February???? Sales are down 2%? Am I reading his right?

If we are really up 30% from last year, I think its safe to say some sort of tide is turning...

http://www.redfin.com/county/2943/VA/Arlington-County

Homes for Sale Feb '14 vs. Prev. Month vs. Prev. Year
# Homes for Sale 398 9.3% 30.1%
Median List Price $550K 4.8% 5.1%
Median List $/SqFt. $424 -1.2% 3.4%

Homes Sold Feb '14 vs. Prev. Month vs. Prev. Year
# Homes Sold 192 21.5% -2%
Median Sold Price $520K 4.1% 4%
Median Sold $/SqFt. $421 3% 5.5%
% Sale to List 99% 1.5% 0.6%

Anonymous wrote:What are you looking for and what's your budget?

4 bedrooms..basement for kids is a plus. Need a yard but doesn't need to be huge. Budget 2.4max. Very little comes up.

What are you looking for and what's your budget?

Refinancing boom has locked up the market bc no one willing to move up. People will rent out at a real loss to keep the magical low rates (but in real terms they are just average we just have mild deflation to compare to)

At some point this bubble too will pop, and all these holdouts will rush for the exits at once, we will see normal inventor, and things may get interesting.

Still curious: what jobs are growing here?