Anonymous wrote:Because there will always be a large number of wealthy people who will pay for private school even if they have an excellent public option, because they are misinformed about the dubious benefits of a private school education. This in turns opens spots for OOB students. It's really not that mysterious.
I don't think you understand what the IB number represents. It's not the percentage of IB kids who chose to go to the school. That number is secret. I'm sure DCPS knows it, but there's no way they're letting it out. You can get an idea of the order of magnitude of that number by looking at the census. In the 2010 census there were slightly over 10,000 kids under 18 living in Ward 3. There are roughly 2600 Ward 3 kids who attend DCPS. Considering that roughly 1/4 of under-18 kids are too young for school, that means that roughly 1/3 of Ward 3 kids attend DCPS. If I had to guess I'd say that Murch is probably higher than average in Ward 3, but that's just a guess, the real number is secret.
If one school has a particularly high OOB number it does not mean that the families in that school district are particularly unlikely to attend DCPS. Moving school boundaries is essentially impossible in DC, and it hasn't been done in a meaningful way since the end of segregation. The reason that some schools are bursting at the seams with trailers in the parking lot, and others have big OOB populations, is that there is a mismatch between the schools we have, the school boundaries we have, and the number of families living within those boundaries who wish to attend DCPS.
Incidentally, this is true not just at the elementary school level but at the middle school level. The primary reason that Deal is bursting at the seams and Hardy is 90% OOB is that Deal has roughly 2 and a half times as many kids in its feeder schools <i>per seat</i> as Hardy does.