Anonymous
Post 01/10/2013 11:28     Subject: 2013 stock market confidence?
Anonymous wrote:Are we really thinking interest rates can stay at next to nothing forever?


They better or recession 3.0 on your doorstep!
Anonymous
Post 01/10/2013 11:27     Subject: 2013 stock market confidence?
Are we really thinking interest rates can stay at next to nothing forever?
Anonymous
Post 01/10/2013 11:19     Subject: 2013 stock market confidence?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:I'm not so optimistic. This area could get hit pretty hard when Congress finally agrees on gov't budget cuts. Gov't contractors will likely feel some pain, and if there are furloughs then there could be real trouble in DC.


Yep, Fed here. We've got RIF on the drawing board. That, plus a pop in interest rates, spells doom (or at least downturn) in houses. Don't buy one as a hedge, just to live in, for quite a while.


That Fed has given no indication of any such "pop." Quite the opposite, actually.


Funny enough, I just read an article that contradicts this claim:

“Last week rates rose to the highest levels in nearly four months after another solid jobs report and Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes revealed some Fed policymakers were open to scaling back QE3 bond purchases sooner than the market had anticipated,” said Erin Lantz, director of Zillow Mortgage Marketplace. http://homes.yahoo.com/news/30-fixed-mortgage-rate-hits-16-week-high-200033167.html



Anonymous
Post 01/10/2013 08:42     Subject: 2013 stock market confidence?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:I'm not so optimistic. This area could get hit pretty hard when Congress finally agrees on gov't budget cuts. Gov't contractors will likely feel some pain, and if there are furloughs then there could be real trouble in DC.


Yep, Fed here. We've got RIF on the drawing board. That, plus a pop in interest rates, spells doom (or at least downturn) in houses. Don't buy one as a hedge, just to live in, for quite a while.


That Fed has given no indication of any such "pop." Quite the opposite, actually.
Anonymous
Post 01/08/2013 22:14     Subject: 2013 stock market confidence?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Housing and autos have driven the stock market during the past 100 years. During the past five years people decreased the number of autos and homes they have purchased. The average age of autos on the roads today is close to 10 years old. Even well built cars begin to fall apart after 10 years of wear and tear. Houses wear out as well which also usually means furnishings as well.

People are sick of just buying the latest IPhones. They want to buy bigger things and bigger things built in America drive the economy.

We are entering into a new ten year bull market.


You're nuts.


You can suck my "nuts" all the way to the bank. There is pent up demand for virtually all big ticket items in American, corporations have tons of cash on hand which will be used for capital improvements and eventually for hiring, and the national infrastructure has improved dramatically. The foundation has been built for a new bull market - so suck it.
Anonymous
Post 01/08/2013 13:52     Subject: 2013 stock market confidence?
"dont forget, though - lots of govt contractors in the area will feel the pinch of DOD/govt budgets. It may take a little bit (our contracts are pre-funded for example) but I see RIF's looming as well."

Contractors are busy bidding to assist the government on work force reduction. That, plus the fact that there are many baby boomer feds ready to retire within the next 5 years, means all is not gloom and doom.
Anonymous
Post 01/08/2013 13:19     Subject: 2013 stock market confidence?
Anonymous wrote:Housing and autos have driven the stock market during the past 100 years. During the past five years people decreased the number of autos and homes they have purchased. The average age of autos on the roads today is close to 10 years old. Even well built cars begin to fall apart after 10 years of wear and tear. Houses wear out as well which also usually means furnishings as well.

People are sick of just buying the latest IPhones. They want to buy bigger things and bigger things built in America drive the economy.

We are entering into a new ten year bull market.


You're nuts.
Anonymous
Post 01/08/2013 13:01     Subject: 2013 stock market confidence?
Housing and autos have driven the stock market during the past 100 years. During the past five years people decreased the number of autos and homes they have purchased. The average age of autos on the roads today is close to 10 years old. Even well built cars begin to fall apart after 10 years of wear and tear. Houses wear out as well which also usually means furnishings as well.

People are sick of just buying the latest IPhones. They want to buy bigger things and bigger things built in America drive the economy.

We are entering into a new ten year bull market.
Anonymous
Post 01/08/2013 12:15     Subject: 2013 stock market confidence?
Anonymous wrote:^^^I see your point, but the gov't has workers all over the country. If there are RIFs, then gov't workers everywhere will feel it. I'm guessing that on one hand the markets will like to see some cuts in gov't spending, but at what level will those cuts do more harm than good? RIFs could affect the entire economy, not just the local one, as DoD workers, park rangers, border agents, etc. all across the country are suddenly without pay.

And what about entitlement programs? Are they going to cut those? What will that do to the entire economy?


dont forget, though - lots of govt contractors in the area will feel the pinch of DOD/govt budgets. It may take a little bit (our contracts are pre-funded for example) but I see RIF's looming as well.
Anonymous
Post 01/07/2013 20:29     Subject: 2013 stock market confidence?
What part don't you believe?
Anonymous
Post 01/07/2013 20:27     Subject: 2013 stock market confidence?
Anonymous wrote:Sadly, no money set aside. Difficult to do given our current monthly expenses. For sure, we could have managed our expenses better, so I'll take some blame. Perhaps our biggest mistake, though, was relying on the (false) notion that fed gov't jobs = job security.


I don't believe you.
Anonymous
Post 01/07/2013 20:17     Subject: 2013 stock market confidence?
Sadly, no money set aside. Difficult to do given our current monthly expenses. For sure, we could have managed our expenses better, so I'll take some blame. Perhaps our biggest mistake, though, was relying on the (false) notion that fed gov't jobs = job security.
Anonymous
Post 01/07/2013 16:16     Subject: 2013 stock market confidence?
"If there are 22 days of gov't furloughs, we might have to consider foreclosing on our house,"

So if you lose a month of pay, you're going to stop making payments on your house? You don't have a month of pay set aside?