Anonymous wrote:Obama by the more than you think. The Tea Party has blown the republican party apart.

talk about wishful thinking. in 2008 the tea party drove the biggest political rout in history, less than 2 years ago. It went from the senate all the way down to dog catcher. The tea party is just staring to get revved up again to give the dems an electoral facial.

Based on current polls, and comparing those polls to polls from the same time period in 2004 and 2008, I think Obama will win by a decent margin of the popular vote and a larger margin of the electoral vote.

1433 here. in my second to last paragraph i mean to say the ryan pick isnt going to win or lose the race for romney. i see the pick as a solid neutral pick

Anonymous wrote:Honestly, who do you think is going to win in November? Not who you want to win, but who do you think WILL win?

obama (im a D and answering your question truthfully with no bias)

everything points to him losing and romney should be ahead to be honest. despite the fact that everything is fucked up and the best romney can do today is stay close or statistically even, shows that obama can pull it off.

i wont be surprised if obama loses though and at this rate the chances of that happening solely hang on what the economy does cause i dont see romney saying or doing anything to really give him that edge.

and while i think that ryan pick is solid for romney, i am surprised to read some behind the scenes negative feelings by republicans regarding the pick. even without this so-called rumbling, i never saw the ryan pick as "bold". i see it as a strong pick that wont be the cause for romney winning and not necessarily the reason why romney would win either.

thats probably more than you asked but i appreciate your question and have not read anyone elses responses. i hope they were also honest and not trashing your thread with obama is this and romney is that nonsense

Obama, by LESS than what many people here seem to think. Ryan seems to be more pragmatic (yes, I use that word consciously, even if I support Obama) and articulate than given credit for, and he may well destroy Biden in a debate.

Obama by the more than you think. The Tea Party has blown the republican party apart.

Anonymous wrote:PP here, my theory: Republicans WANT to lose this election. That's the only explanation for picking Ryan and alienating the key Independent voter bloc. Repubs don't want to be in charge of this difficult economy for the next four years. They know that noone can magically fix it. They want dems to take all the blame for the next four years so Repubs are primed to make a comeback in 2016. And they want a TWO term president. They are afraid that if Romney wins now, he will preside over a sucky economy and the country will flip dem in 2016. Possibly for 8 years.

Interesting. And there is a steep line up of Rs waiting for 2016. Question: Did Ryan sacrifice himself for 2016 by agreeing to join this ticket?

Too close to call at this point. Obama has the advantage, but it is really going to come down to turnout in a few key states. I think Florida likely goes R, and it comes down to the ground game in Ohio.

PP here, my theory: Republicans WANT to lose this election. That's the only explanation for picking Ryan and alienating the key Independent voter bloc. Repubs don't want to be in charge of this difficult economy for the next four years. They know that noone can magically fix it. They want dems to take all the blame for the next four years so Repubs are primed to make a comeback in 2016. And they want a TWO term president. They are afraid that if Romney wins now, he will preside over a sucky economy and the country will flip dem in 2016. Possibly for 8 years.

Anonymous wrote:romney in a landslide....gop is more engaged and more economic shoes are dropping. the public is discouraged, and any change feels better. Obama will win dc and maryland in a landslide but the rest of the country is suffering badly.

Meh. Things are improving, albeit slowly. They are certainly not getting worse. Despite the Republican's best efforts

Anonymous wrote:romney in a landslide....gop is more engaged and more economic shoes are dropping. the public is discouraged, and any change feels better. Obama will win dc and maryland in a landslide but the rest of the country is suffering badly.

Aren't you the same guy who said of Rick Perry, "Studbolt! Presumptive nominee".

romney in a landslide....gop is more engaged and more economic shoes are dropping. the public is discouraged, and any change feels better. Obama will win dc and maryland in a landslide but the rest of the country is suffering badly.

OBAMA IN A LANDSLIDE

Romney has made no attempt to move to the center, instead he has catered to the outter most fringes of American Society. as another poster said
"As best I can tell, the Republicans want policies that dismantle the social safety net so we can lower taxes for the wealthy. They want to remove regulations that essentially protect average citizens against wealthy corporations." The average voter is scared stiff of these two.
With a ticket based up Romney and Ryan statements that is for: disableling the "safety net, medicare as we know it, for Privatation of SS, against funding womens health and birth control , an immigrationn policy of self deportation, college student loan program cut s and the reversal of Roe V Wade, etc. Exactly who, but the most out there wing nuts, are they appealing to

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Obama. Romney just lost the independent appeal with a Ryan pick. Stupid. If you look at Romeny's record he's actually fairly liberal. Independents sould have been tempted. But abolish medicare? Anti gay, anti reproductve rights? No they just scared away swing voters and that is where the election will be decided.

My thought too.

One thing I've never understood about politics is the appeasing the base concept. Your hardcore Repubs or Dems aren't going to vote the other direction regardless of who you pick as a running mate. It really is that majority of moderates, independents, aka swing voters that make the difference.

Yes, my thought exactly.

If Republicans would give up on gays and abortion, they would have SO much more broad appeal. Hardcores are not going to go Dem. Independents would be more open to them. I really don't get it.

I think the Ryan pick only helps Romney if he fully embraces the Ryan budget, That is the only reason to pick him. he has no foreign policy experience and he does not help to win a swing state ( like Portman or Rubio might have done). But of course, Romney being Romney, he cannot fully take a stand on anything. He is already being wishy-washy in his public comments about Ryan's ideas. There is no reason Obama should win on his record, but Romney is such a terrible, terrible candidate, Obama get re-elected.