Class of 2026 (rising cillege freshmen) is the largest graduating class in US history. The previous high school class of 2025 is the second largest graduating class in US history.

The problem is not the demographic cliff, not yet.

With the two largest classes in US history comprising the freshman and sophomore classes at college this year, every single college should be bursting at the seams.

The enrollment issue is due to colleges raising their tuition many times more than the rate of inflation over the past decade to the point that it simply is not worth it to spend nearly $100,000/ year on a mediocre tiny college that is not going to result in a job that pays for the education.

Combine that with the image most liberal arts and elite universities have created for themselves of being angry, ugly, full of censorship and thought police, vs the images of big state SEC type schools and places like Notre Dame that just look like such fun and happy places to attend, and you are ending up with a situation where very few find those schools worth seeking out or spending money on.

Anonymous wrote:YCBK has had some interviews on this lately. The truth is that every school wants to “make its class”, have a low admit rate and a high yield on admits. If those things start slipping, people think “oh that schools not as good” so applications go down and it’s a downward spiral. So schools are very guarded about these numbers and at least some are starting to throw merit money at some kids to get them in and committed. The colleges are starting to compete among themselves. I’m not talking about the T10 or even T20, but the ones on the 20-100 range.

It’s not clear this is sustainable.

I was shocked to learn on this podcast that the average student is only paying 47% of rack rate for a school. What other industry prices its product double what the average consumer pays? It’s worse than car dealerships.

It’s a highly irrational and non transparent market.

Syracuse has had a yield problem for a few years now. Perhaps they are being too selective.

I don't think you see issues like this very frequently in the T100, above that, sure.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:No. They are all going to be in financial trouble and want full pay kids.

Hopefully tuition will decrease. 20 years ago I got full ride to a college that now cost $100k/year in tuition alone. So ridiculous.

Tuition decreasing?

🤣

YCBK has had some interviews on this lately. The truth is that every school wants to “make its class”, have a low admit rate and a high yield on admits. If those things start slipping, people think “oh that schools not as good” so applications go down and it’s a downward spiral. So schools are very guarded about these numbers and at least some are starting to throw merit money at some kids to get them in and committed. The colleges are starting to compete among themselves. I’m not talking about the T10 or even T20, but the ones on the 20-100 range.

It’s not clear this is sustainable.

I was shocked to learn on this podcast that the average student is only paying 47% of rack rate for a school. What other industry prices its product double what the average consumer pays? It’s worse than car dealerships.

It’s a highly irrational and non transparent market.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Two things could be true at once. There is a decline in the # of students. This will impact some schools more overly than some other schools, based on rankings, locations, other..

Absolutely. The decline in # is real and will disproportionately affect private colleges all over the country. To call the enrollment cliff a “red herring” is really weird.

It’s a slope that takes us back to 2012. More kids enrolling in colllege this year than any other.

Financial troubles seem more related to drop in federal funding and the effect of NIL on athletic budgets.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:No. They are all going to be in financial trouble and want full pay kids.

Hopefully tuition will decrease. 20 years ago I got full ride to a college that now cost $100k/year in tuition alone. So ridiculous.

The population will only decrease to 2012 level by the end of the next decade, and that doesn’t include growth in international enrollment so dooubtful.

Anonymous wrote:At our high school, the average kids that are heading to privates are usually heading there for sports. And usually, they are going to schools that are not super competitive academically, so they are basically guaranteed to get some (a lot of) money.

That's part of the problem. Some of these private schools are giving away money they don't have to get kids to fill spots. They are going into their endowment and eventually that money runs out.

At our high school, the average kids that are heading to privates are usually heading there for sports. And usually, they are going to schools that are not super competitive academically, so they are basically guaranteed to get some (a lot of) money.