Anonymous wrote:Let’s assume the kid will be 6’0” by high school, so a pretty average height
IMO it's mostly just a matter of reps. Doesn't really matter if they do those reps over a long period of time building up or somewhat intensively over a couple of summers.
I say mostly, because there are some things to consider. When it comes to basketball athleticism, the slowest things to develop are those ligaments and tendons. This is where it really helps to start younger and take your time, hopefully develop good technique for all that jumping, cutting stopping on a dime. I know kids that have started later than my daughter, they caught up pretty quickly by doing several AAU teams at the same time and camps all summer, but then they had some injuries a combination of overuse, not being developed fully and bad technique.
Though, there is a substantial amount of coachability also. Like if you went through your middle school, JV programs and can understand what the coaches are asking you to do, they may keep you around over other kids especially if you're looking at riding the bench most the time. There were kids that tried out later in my high school program, they had a late growth spurt but just didn't understand a thing the coach said.