Anonymous
Post 04/17/2026 14:05     Subject: Re:Predict DS's chances at these schools
Do you know his class rank? A lot depends on the other kids in his class. For Duke, Vandy, and MI he would need to be in the top 2%
Anonymous
Post 04/17/2026 14:05     Subject: Predict DS's chances at these schools
Anonymous wrote:Honestly, I would guess rejected at Duke, Vandy, Michigan and only in UVA possibly with ED. Of course, just based on what you said.


Same poster, I agree denial likely at UNC as well. Wisconsin and Georgia are targets, not likelies. Apply to Pitt in summer for a likely.
Anonymous
Post 04/17/2026 14:01     Subject: Predict DS's chances at these schools
Honestly, I would guess rejected at Duke, Vandy, Michigan and only in UVA possibly with ED. Of course, just based on what you said.
Anonymous
Post 04/17/2026 14:00     Subject: Predict DS's chances at these schools
Duke ED is very tough. He would need to find a way to differentiate himself and tell an interesting story. Your description is very flat . Might consider ED’ing somewhere more likely.
Anonymous
Post 04/17/2026 13:59     Subject: Re:Predict DS's chances at these schools
Anonymous wrote:My FCPS kid has a very similar profile.

I think the VA schools are a good bet. WISC and UGA, too.

Duke, Vandy and UNC - not happening

Michigan - maybe

Honestly, I wouldn't waste your ED on Duke personally. Spouse and I have 4 Duke degrees between us and don't think our kid with the similar profile has a shot at Duke after talking to some admissions people during reunion.


That has been an ongoing discussion. Likely will not waste ED on Duke but listed for purposes of predictions here and not surprised it is a universal no.
Anonymous
Post 04/17/2026 13:56     Subject: Predict DS's chances at these schools
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:UMC FCPS Public. 3.95/4.5 GPA, 1520 SAT one sitting, will take again, one varsity sport, lots of volunteer work, PT summer job, VP of an academic club 3 years, tutoring. An academic department award in 10th. 9 APs through 11th, scheduled for 6 in 12th. 10th grade AP exams - 2 5s, 2 4s.

Duke ED
Vanderbilt
UVA
VT
W&M
UNC
Mich
Wisc
UGA


What APs did he already take, which ones will he take and most importantly which are offered that he is not taking?
Two 4s on 10th grade APs is not a great start though it depends on the AP. With the 2024 AP scoring shift, a 4 means top 35-50% for most tests. Pre-2024 a 4 meant top20-25% for many tests.

9 APs through 11th grade when the list includes BC cal, AP literature and language, APUSH, APphys1, APPhysC, APchem, AP gov, couple others is a heck of a lot more impressive than a list with AB Cal, HUGeo, World, APES, AP lang.
yes the first list is possible to do at some high schools by 5-10%of students by the end of 11th grade. By the end of senior year it would be expected for 20% of the class.

If 3.95 is UW and 4.5 is W that is anywhere between top few students and outside the top 20% depending on the high school.
Your counselor will know.


Will finish first list except for Physics C by end of 12th (could not by end of 11th at our school).


Anonymous
Post 04/17/2026 13:55     Subject: Predict DS's chances at these schools
Anonymous wrote:ED Northwestern


There’s zero evidence for anything interdisciplinary Seems interdisciplinary spike; no arts. Blah ECs.

I’d ED UVA for history or similar. ED2 WashU.

Michigan won’t happen either.
Anonymous
Post 04/17/2026 13:53     Subject: Predict DS's chances at these schools
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:UMC FCPS Public. 3.95/4.5 GPA, 1520 SAT one sitting, will take again, one varsity sport, lots of volunteer work, PT summer job, VP of an academic club 3 years, tutoring. An academic department award in 10th. 9 APs through 11th, scheduled for 6 in 12th. 10th grade AP exams - 2 5s, 2 4s.

Duke ED
Vanderbilt
UVA
VT
W&M
UNC
Mich
Wisc
UGA


There’s some high profile history internships/awards he should aim for


Like what?


Google?
Anonymous
Post 04/17/2026 13:52     Subject: Predict DS's chances at these schools
ED Northwestern
Anonymous
Post 04/17/2026 13:51     Subject: Predict DS's chances at these schools
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:He doesn't have any safety schools?


Wisc is a safety for this student


Probably high safety. VT as well. UGA is a safety safety.
Anonymous
Post 04/17/2026 13:48     Subject: Predict DS's chances at these schools
Anonymous wrote:This is a very very generic profile. ECs are absolutely not at the level of T20s. This kid’s top ECs look like what competitive applicants for the T20 put at 9-10 in their list. I would ED UVA. Duke, Vanderbilt, Michigan, and UNC will not happen.


+10000
Anonymous
Post 04/17/2026 13:48     Subject: Predict DS's chances at these schools
We had a DS that has a very similar profile to yours and got rejected from Duke ED (but for engineering).

Anonymous
Post 04/17/2026 13:47     Subject: Re:Predict DS's chances at these schools
My FCPS kid has a very similar profile.

I think the VA schools are a good bet. WISC and UGA, too.

Duke, Vandy and UNC - not happening

Michigan - maybe

Honestly, I wouldn't waste your ED on Duke personally. Spouse and I have 4 Duke degrees between us and don't think our kid with the similar profile has a shot at Duke after talking to some admissions people during reunion.
Anonymous
Post 04/17/2026 13:43     Subject: Predict DS's chances at these schools
Anonymous wrote:He doesn't have any safety schools?


Wisc is a safety for this student
Anonymous
Post 04/17/2026 13:41     Subject: Predict DS's chances at these schools
Anonymous wrote:UMC FCPS Public. 3.95/4.5 GPA, 1520 SAT one sitting, will take again, one varsity sport, lots of volunteer work, PT summer job, VP of an academic club 3 years, tutoring. An academic department award in 10th. 9 APs through 11th, scheduled for 6 in 12th. 10th grade AP exams - 2 5s, 2 4s.

Duke ED
Vanderbilt
UVA
VT
W&M
UNC
Mich
Wisc
UGA


What APs did he already take, which ones will he take and most importantly which are offered that he is not taking?
Two 4s on 10th grade APs is not a great start though it depends on the AP. With the 2024 AP scoring shift, a 4 means top 35-50% for most tests. Pre-2024 a 4 meant top20-25% for many tests.

9 APs through 11th grade when the list includes BC cal, AP literature and language, APUSH, APphys1, APPhysC, APchem, AP gov, couple others is a heck of a lot more impressive than a list with AB Cal, HUGeo, World, APES, AP lang.
yes the first list is possible to do at some high schools by 5-10%of students by the end of 11th grade. By the end of senior year it would be expected for 20% of the class.

If 3.95 is UW and 4.5 is W that is anywhere between top few students and outside the top 20% depending on the high school.
Your counselor will know.