Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:3 safeties => 3 admits
4 targets => 4 admits
5 reaches => 2 admits, 1 WL, 2 rejects

12 total => 9 admits, 1 WL, 2 rejects

In retrospect, probably too many safeties & targets. Should have done:
2 safeties, 3 targets, and 5+ reaches.

Seems like 5 was actually at least enough reaches, since your kid got into two and can only attend one.

Debatable about reaches, depends if there are more that the kid would like to attend. Kid would have had more time to explore those if not trying to find so many safeties & targets.

Anonymous wrote:^ but how does a kid know if it's a target before they apply? So many students applying to UMD College Park from within MD think it is a target or likely school yet are unaccepted. Should every in-state kid treat their flagship as a reach these days?

There is plenty of data available, both generally and for your school’s admissions outcomes, that can inform your student’s chances and whether a particular school is a target or reach. Do your research and don’t just assume anything!

1 for 1 with my 2026 (athletic recruit)

8 of 15 with my 2022

Applied to 15
Rejected at one
Waitlisted at one
Accepted to 13

Anonymous wrote:^ but how does a kid know if it's a target before they apply? So many students applying to UMD College Park from within MD think it is a target or likely school yet are unaccepted. Should every in-state kid treat their flagship as a reach these days?

UVA is similar. Some of my kid’s friends with same gpa/scores and ec type were rejected while my kid was accepted. It’s unpredictable.

Applied 13
In at: 6
WL: 3 (Ivies/T10)
Deferred/rej: 1
Rejected: 3 (Ivy/Stanford/T10)

My kid had 2 true safeties. Others were considered reach-high reach based on acceptance rate 2-8%. Did not apply to all Ivies or T10-went on fit/location/size/type.

9 for 9. 3 targets, 3 likely and 3 reaches. The reaches were all in the top 25. We were very surprised by the outcome.

Applied to 10. Accepted to 8. Rejected by 1. Waitlist -1.

3 Reach (1 reject, 1 WL, 1 acceptance)

4 Target (accepted by all with some merit)

3 Likely (accepted by all and one full ride offer)

Anonymous wrote:^ but how does a kid know if it's a target before they apply? So many students applying to UMD College Park from within MD think it is a target or likely school yet are unaccepted. Should every in-state kid treat their flagship as a reach these days?

Assuming you’re from MoCo (the hardest county to get into UMD), if your kid’s GPA belongs to top 10% within their school with a 1500+ SAT score, then UMD is definitely a safety. Your in-state flagship is actually more predictable than oos flagships, as the former knows your school well and can rank the students accurately.

Anonymous wrote:^ but how does a kid know if it's a target before they apply? So many students applying to UMD College Park from within MD think it is a target or likely school yet are unaccepted. Should every in-state kid treat their flagship as a reach these days?

Previous pp here. UMD was a reach for my dc because they applied to a specific program in the computer science school. It may have not been a reach if they applied to a much less competitive program.

^ but how does a kid know if it's a target before they apply? So many students applying to UMD College Park from within MD think it is a target or likely school yet are unaccepted. Should every in-state kid treat their flagship as a reach these days?

Applied to 12, accepted at 9

4 reaches - rejected 3 RD, accepted 1 EA
6 targets - accepted 5 EA, 1 RD (no EA option)
2 safeties - accepted 1 EA, 1 RD (no EA option)

Did not do and EDs because we are limited to what we can afford and couldn’t be on the hook for full tuition.

Anonymous wrote:3 safeties => 3 admits
4 targets => 4 admits
5 reaches => 2 admits, 1 WL, 2 rejects

12 total => 9 admits, 1 WL, 2 rejects

In retrospect, probably too many safeties & targets. Should have done:
2 safeties, 3 targets, and 5+ reaches.

Seems like 5 was actually at least enough reaches, since your kid got into two and can only attend one.

Kid 1, class of 2025:
- sub-5%: rejected from 2
- 5%–10%: waitlisted from 2
- 10%–20%: waitlisted from 2
- 20%–30%: accepted to 2
- >30%: accepted to 2 (both with merit)
(overall: applied to 10; R 2, WL 4, Acc 4)

Kid 2, class of 2025:
- sub-5%: rejected from 2
- 5%–10%: n/a
- 10%–20%: waitlisted from 1
- 20%–30%: accepted to 2
- >30%: accepted to 3 (2 with merit)
(overall: applied to 8; R 2, WL 1, Acc 5)

3 safeties => 3 admits
4 targets => 4 admits
5 reaches => 2 admits, 1 WL, 2 rejects

12 total => 9 admits, 1 WL, 2 rejects

In retrospect, probably too many safeties & targets. Should have done:
2 safeties, 3 targets, and 5+ reaches.