Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Financial experts don’t know either. But I have excellent pattern recognition (and I am old) and this all feels like 2008.

When the fundamentals aren’t there and experts have been calling for “a correction” for years - I’m just waiting. Everyone needs to remember these same aholes on Wall Street caused 2008. Everything was “fine” until one weekend in September and then Lehman was out of business.

It’s nothing like 2008. I posted this on another thread.

Stocks can’t fall now, indexes and algos will always jump to prop it up at any drop. Look at last 3 days.

Most returns are made on a few key days, people are terrified to miss them so don’t sit out for long.

It’s called the Best Days Theory or something like that. Algorithms are constantly trying to game buying to maximize on those days, and they usually come after drops.

"They can't fall now"

Just incredible stuff. Every time people think it's different, this time it won't happen.

They won’t fall. They will stagnate for a decade, because FOMO rules the robot traders. But the big jumps up require active traders acting on actual business reports.

No, you are right, THIS time it's different. The cycle that humanity has gone through for hundreds of years has finally been stopped by the robots.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Another thesis is that TACO is pissed off because he can't extend his presidential terms and don't care if the economy or the country is going down the tube. He and his recent family businesses has accumulated enough wealth to move to any other countries after the US has imploded.

Then he’s dumber than we thought, because with the US gone, Russia and China will carve up the world, and he will not find any refuge there.

I seem to remember them doing something nice for Argentina. They can leave the northern hemisphere in shambles and move to the southern hemisphere.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Iran will settle down eventually and market will return to its high. Expect the year to end flat. Which isn't bad. People know this isn't WWIII.

It very much could be WW III

It will be a regional war, WWIII would require industrial powers engaging in total war footing, where industrial might is diverted to war.

Who are the players? Iran is not an industrial power, Russia likely benefits from this war and Putin may have orchestrated it. China is probably dinged by rising oil prices, but engaging in war with US to lower oil prices seems unlikely — more likely they will try to take Taiwan under their own Donroe doctrine. And the world will be carved up more or less with regional wars.

Anonymous wrote:I am surprised as well. My game is small, I just got my tax return and put it all into my Roth IRA and was waiting for a temporary low to invest. Well it all seems like business as usual?

Your tax return is the document you file with the IRS. Are you referring to your tax refund?

Anonymous wrote:Iran will settle down eventually and market will return to its high. Expect the year to end flat. Which isn't bad. People know this isn't WWIII.

It very much could be WW III

I am surprised as well. My game is small, I just got my tax return and put it all into my Roth IRA and was waiting for a temporary low to invest. Well it all seems like business as usual?

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Financial experts don’t know either. But I have excellent pattern recognition (and I am old) and this all feels like 2008.

When the fundamentals aren’t there and experts have been calling for “a correction” for years - I’m just waiting. Everyone needs to remember these same aholes on Wall Street caused 2008. Everything was “fine” until one weekend in September and then Lehman was out of business.

It’s nothing like 2008. I posted this on another thread.

Stocks can’t fall now, indexes and algos will always jump to prop it up at any drop. Look at last 3 days.

Most returns are made on a few key days, people are terrified to miss them so don’t sit out for long.

It’s called the Best Days Theory or something like that. Algorithms are constantly trying to game buying to maximize on those days, and they usually come after drops.

"They can't fall now"

Just incredible stuff. Every time people think it's different, this time it won't happen.

They won’t fall. They will stagnate for a decade, because FOMO rules the robot traders. But the big jumps up require active traders acting on actual business reports.

Anonymous wrote:Another thesis is that TACO is pissed off because he can't extend his presidential terms and don't care if the economy or the country is going down the tube. He and his recent family businesses has accumulated enough wealth to move to any other countries after the US has imploded.

Then he’s dumber than we thought, because with the US gone, Russia and China will carve up the world, and he will not find any refuge there.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Financial experts don’t know either. But I have excellent pattern recognition (and I am old) and this all feels like 2008.

When the fundamentals aren’t there and experts have been calling for “a correction” for years - I’m just waiting. Everyone needs to remember these same aholes on Wall Street caused 2008. Everything was “fine” until one weekend in September and then Lehman was out of business.

Really? How so. Other than everything-seemed-fine-but-then-it-wasn't.

Are you kidding? It was obvious there was a housing bubble in 2002-2003, and anyone who understood how much banks relied on mortgages knew it would be bad. Granted CDO and the amplified effects probably required experts, but the root of the problem with housing was obvious way early.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Financial experts don’t know either. But I have excellent pattern recognition (and I am old) and this all feels like 2008.

When the fundamentals aren’t there and experts have been calling for “a correction” for years - I’m just waiting. Everyone needs to remember these same aholes on Wall Street caused 2008. Everything was “fine” until one weekend in September and then Lehman was out of business.

I worked in the mortgage back securities industry back in the 2000s. The writing was on the wall for years. Go watch the Big Short for an entertaining explanation of how it wasn’t just one weekend and then everything fell apart.

I think that was the PP's point. Stock prices are "fine" right up until they fall off a cliff, but the signs were there for years.

Another thesis is that TACO is pissed off because he can't extend his presidential terms and don't care if the economy or the country is going down the tube. He and his recent family businesses has accumulated enough wealth to move to any other countries after the US has imploded.

TACO is still in charge. He started the war and can end it anytime. My guess is they stockpiled enough oil and will continue bombing until the reserve is about to dry up.

Anonymous wrote:Financial experts don’t know either. But I have excellent pattern recognition (and I am old) and this all feels like 2008.

When the fundamentals aren’t there and experts have been calling for “a correction” for years - I’m just waiting. Everyone needs to remember these same aholes on Wall Street caused 2008. Everything was “fine” until one weekend in September and then Lehman was out of business.

I worked in the mortgage back securities industry back in the 2000s. The writing was on the wall for years. Go watch the Big Short for an entertaining explanation of how it wasn’t just one weekend and then everything fell apart.

Food for thought

All depends on how long the Iran war goes on and how high oil prices go. The longer and higher, the more the market will wobble and eventually fall. The market was initially betting on a short bombing excursion, but is increasingly unnerved by Trump’s call for weeks of bombing and Iran’s unconditional surrender. The latter doesn’t sound like a recipe for a near-term fall in oil prices. The Administration has the weekend to adjust expectations. Hopefully, we’ll get another TACO and everything will begin to improve.