Anonymous wrote:imo the biggest problem schools like Midd, Hamilton, Colby, Bates, Colgate have is very undesirable rural/remote locations with no diversity. Demographics have changed drastically in the US. Lots of kids want to be in or have easy access to major cities for all the cultural, entertainment and culinary benefits. Logistically try getting to Middlebury Vermont, Hamilton NY or Watervile Maine. Plus the winters are brutal. Believe Colgate had a 3,000 drop in apps and Midd has seen a pronounced decline in last 2 years. College popularity has changed with top kids flocking to Duke and Vandy while those wishing to remain in North East seeking city schools.
I agree with this. SLACs remain competitive but, in relative terms, their popularity has suffered at the expense of national universities. Meanwhile, cities have become more popular, not to mention larger demographic shifts away from New England and upstate New York towards the south and west. Endowment level (and ability to give merit in future) mitigates or accelerates this decline.
While the very top will remain top, you can already see the shift going on in the tiers below WASP-B. Stock picks, largely for these reasons:
Hold long-term: WASP-B
Buys: Davidson, Mudd, CMC
Sells: Bates, Colby, Midd, Hamilton, Colgate, Conn College, Trinity (neighborhood negates urban advantage)
Holds: Wesleyan, Holy Cross, W&L, Macalester, Occidental, Haverford, Carleton, Grinnell (due to endowment)