My daughter applied to some of these schools - Mizzou, Kansas State, UVM, Iowa State - because they all had the major that she was interested in - she got the listed merit and then some, but she was top of the range for all of those schools.

I would not rely on the stats as guaranteed. As Auburn became a very sought after school over the last five years, they moved those merit goalposts regularly. Often at the time of admissions decisions. I know several who were counting on merit that did not get it. One didn’t even get in. That family was not happy.

I think this could happen at any school, especially if they get a rapidly, progressively better applicant pool each year.

Take your shot! But have a plan b.