Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:From the thread about this that we had in June: There is no cliff. It's a slow decline.

By this graph, 2026 looks to be the peak (not 2025). So no reduction this year unfortunately.

It is because of all the 2007s/early 08s and the internationals that deferred will be back. Buckle up it’s going to be rough

Anonymous wrote:From the thread about this that we had in June: There is no cliff. It's a slow decline.

Yes. There won’t be any noticeable difference at T1-T20 schools

Test required will have a bigger impact n reducing apps to schools that went required

Of the factors kicked around on this thread:

*The "demographic cliff" is basically flat--it's not going to have any impact at all from one year to the next, especially at the most selective schools.

*Fewer international applicants--this is real, and it will create the appearance of easier admissions at a lot of places, but that apparent loosening will be mostly a mirage at most/all of the most selective schools. That's because those schools accept truly tiny numbers of international applicants (Amherst, e.g., accepted 1238 of 13743 total applicants, but only 150 of the 5664 of those applicants who were international, https://www.amherst.edu/system/files/C%20First-Time%2C%20First-Year%20Admission_4.pdf ), so cutting international applicant numbers in half would increase the headline acceptance rate percentages without actually increasing the likelihood that any particular domestic applicant is accepted. The dynamic obviously is different at places where international applicants are accepted at rates approximating domestic applicants. At those schools--which include a decent number of flagships--acceptance standards actually will be loosened a bit.

*Expanding class sizes--where it's real, it matters. That's just math. It's not happening at most of the most selective schools.

*Full pay--matters a lot more than it did a year ago (i.e., before Trump slashed all the research funding he could find) almost everywhere.

Anonymous wrote:From the thread about this that we had in June: There is no cliff. It's a slow decline.

By this graph, 2026 looks to be the peak (not 2025). So no reduction this year unfortunately.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Demographic cliff + increase in freshman class size + over-correction from this year's WL disaster

According to this article in NY magazine it's more nuanced:

At an industry level, the demographic cliff is likely to leave the U.S. with a very different higher-education landscape from the one we know today with nearly 4,000 schools. Some colleges will close, merge, or be acquired by stronger players. Many others will limp along eventually resembling malls with vacant stores — bringing in just enough money to keep going but not enough to maintain their buildings or provide the kinds of services that add up to a good student experience.


For families already navigating a college-admissions process reshaped in recent years by test-optional policies and the growth of early applications, the demographic cliff adds yet another wrinkle. Should students take that shot at the elite schools on the chance they’ll be slightly easier to get in to? Will tuition discounts become more generous, but where? And how can families be sure the school they eventually choose will still have the resources to invest in facilities and programs after their kids arrive on campus? These are questions that students and parents didn’t need to ask a decade ago; now they will define both the college search for teenagers in the near term as well as the future of higher education in the U.S..


https://bit.ly/48c2apS

NPR has reported (of the 4,000 colleges in the U.S. today):

- 1 colleges per week is ceasing to exist / ending operations. One per week.

NOT disappearing are:

- the 50 state flagship universities,

- the Service academies for the 5 main military branches, (Coast Guard has its own academy; the Commissioned Corps and Space Force, do not);

the T-50 universities.

Anonymous wrote:Private school full pay. Yes. It will be noticeably easier this year.

Yes, this is a huge advantage this year more than most years. Show off that privilege. Don’t be shy.

From the thread about this that we had in June: There is no cliff. It's a slow decline.

From the thread about this that we had in June: There is no cliff. It's a slow decline.

[i8mg]https://voltedu.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/Fig-1-cropped.jpeg[/img]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Not this year. Not a very perceptible difference in number of students applying to college. Birth rate isn’t that difference with the 2007/2008 birth cohort of class of 2026.

Each passing year it will get a bit easier. Today’s high school freshmen will have a much easier time.

Yes. Our FCPS public has a senior class of 800 kids! That is not going to make things easier

+1000000

This is the peak HS class for many schools around the nation.

Wrong, last year, the last of 2025 was the peak one.

Private school full pay. Yes. It will be noticeably easier this year.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Not this year. Not a very perceptible difference in number of students applying to college. Birth rate isn’t that difference with the 2007/2008 birth cohort of class of 2026.

Each passing year it will get a bit easier. Today’s high school freshmen will have a much easier time.

Yes. Our FCPS public has a senior class of 800 kids! That is not going to make things easier

+1000000

This is the peak HS class for many schools around the nation.

Yes. Many 2007s are current high school seniors.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Not this year. Not a very perceptible difference in number of students applying to college. Birth rate isn’t that difference with the 2007/2008 birth cohort of class of 2026.

Each passing year it will get a bit easier. Today’s high school freshmen will have a much easier time.

Yes. Our FCPS public has a senior class of 800 kids! That is not going to make things easier

+1000000

This is the peak HS class for many schools around the nation.

Anonymous wrote:Demographic cliff + increase in freshman class size + over-correction from this year's WL disaster

According to this article in NY magazine it's more nuanced:

At an industry level, the demographic cliff is likely to leave the U.S. with a very different higher-education landscape from the one we know today with nearly 4,000 schools. Some colleges will close, merge, or be acquired by stronger players. Many others will limp along eventually resembling malls with vacant stores — bringing in just enough money to keep going but not enough to maintain their buildings or provide the kinds of services that add up to a good student experience.


For families already navigating a college-admissions process reshaped in recent years by test-optional policies and the growth of early applications, the demographic cliff adds yet another wrinkle. Should students take that shot at the elite schools on the chance they’ll be slightly easier to get in to? Will tuition discounts become more generous, but where? And how can families be sure the school they eventually choose will still have the resources to invest in facilities and programs after their kids arrive on campus? These are questions that students and parents didn’t need to ask a decade ago; now they will define both the college search for teenagers in the near term as well as the future of higher education in the U.S..


https://bit.ly/48c2apS

Anonymous wrote:Demographic cliff + increase in freshman class size + over-correction from this year's WL disaster

So dramatic.

Anonymous wrote:Not this year. Not a very perceptible difference in number of students applying to college. Birth rate isn’t that difference with the 2007/2008 birth cohort of class of 2026.

Each passing year it will get a bit easier. Today’s high school freshmen will have a much easier time.

Yes. Our FCPS public has a senior class of 800 kids! That is not going to make things easier