Anonymous wrote:I don't know what to think, so I'm just sticking with my current allocation. I've never successfully timed the market.

Same but I wouldn’t mid getting a new house cheap like we did in 2009.

No i don't think there is a particular large crash coming. This seems to be a fear more in the dc area where you've observed brutal job cuts in the public sector this year. My job and my DH's job, both tied to the broader financial picture of the private sector, are both extremely strong. If we see a recession (as opposed to the slight slowing we are seeing now), i do not think it will resemble anything close to the 2008 crash.

Anonymous wrote:This thread is a great example of why so many people fail to accumulate reasonable retirement savings. Those who think they can read the tea leaves almost never actually can, and usually get burned selling low and buying back in high. Good luck...

I’m mainly a Bogle subscriber. I keep 75% of my portfolio in index funds. At this time I’ve put them in international index funds like VTIAX. Im holding for the long term of retirement in 15 years.

But you all are delusional if you don’t think we are going to see some horrific economic pain from tariffs, subsequent layoffs, nations trading around us and doing BRIC things together, all while we lose our credibility by nationalizing stakes in companies, choosing compliant Fed staff to artificially lower rates and BLS staff to fudge employment numbers. You are comically bullish and it’s going to bite you in the a$$.

I took another $100,000 and put it all in gold ETFs or gold miner and precious metal ETFs. These will keep rising for the next while longer, at least several months or year or who knows, but longer. You should at least try to get outside your myopic state of mind. We have done permanent damage to our world standing. We might not see an S&P this high again for decades. It’s all playing out in real time. Gold is safe for now. Then on to buy IDMO and VTIAX when we get to the massive correction days that are on the horizon.

This thread is a great example of why so many people fail to accumulate reasonable retirement savings. Those who think they can read the tea leaves almost never actually can, and usually get burned selling low and buying back in high. Good luck...

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don’t believe it. I think you sold everything back in April and are trying to justify the decisions to yourself.

This. OP wants it to be true.

My portfolio is now hugely comprised of gold. You folks can keep buying overpriced stocks before the crash though if you want. It’s coming. Within the next two years.

This is such a funny comment - and completely indicative of people’s general ability to time the market.

A crash is coming “in the next two years”. Just completely vague nonsense. Imagine structuring your portfolio with that kind of analysis and putting it all in gold!

This scenario allows for the stock market to go up 35% over the next two years and then “crash” 25%.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don’t believe it. I think you sold everything back in April and are trying to justify the decisions to yourself.

This. OP wants it to be true.

My portfolio is now hugely comprised of gold. You folks can keep buying overpriced stocks before the crash though if you want. It’s coming. Within the next two years.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Does anyone NOT believe that?

Yes -- while a correction could happen at any point in time -- a market crash is pretty unlikely this year or next. Economy is robust right now. Great job creation just not as good as the last few years.

Mag 7 or more likely NVIDIA is basically holding up the stock market.

Not even close; broad based increase. And the rate decrease is not fully priced in.

Anonymous wrote:I don’t believe it. I think you sold everything back in April and are trying to justify the decisions to yourself.

This. OP wants it to be true.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Does anyone NOT believe that?

Yes -- while a correction could happen at any point in time -- a market crash is pretty unlikely this year or next. Economy is robust right now. Great job creation just not as good as the last few years.

Mag 7 or more likely NVIDIA is basically holding up the stock market.

Not even close; broad based increase. And the rate decrease is not fully priced in.

Anonymous wrote:LOL @ “impending.” What an idiot!

Oh hey, it’s TDS, guy. Amirite?

Sorry, I meant looming recession.

LOL @ “impending.” What an idiot!

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Does anyone NOT believe that?

Yes -- while a correction could happen at any point in time -- a market crash is pretty unlikely this year or next. Economy is robust right now. Great job creation just not as good as the last few years.

Mag 7 or more likely NVIDIA is basically holding up the stock market.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:God I hope not.

Read the news. The negative outlook is piling up. Even if we do quantitative easing and rate cuts all we do is fuel inflation. Combine that with actual employment numbers that aren’t great. We are on the precipice. Buy gold ETFs now like GLD and IAUM. Hold them until the crash is underway. Then buy SPMO and IDMO ETFs in like a year for much cheaper. Then hold them as they rise in a few years.

The issue is --- when all of the negative outlook piles up == that is when the economy and the market take off. The majority view is almost never correct -- in either direction.

Maybe? I think we’re still in the negative news pile up now and the public is slowly starting to experience and understand tariff fallout. Plus a bunch of other factors. I’m scared we’re jeopardizing our role in capitalism in general…

I tend to think this one will end up like 2020, where everything went bananas due to inflation and money printing. They still have a lot of currency devaluation to do.

Anonymous wrote:Does anyone NOT believe that?

Yes -- while a correction could happen at any point in time -- a market crash is pretty unlikely this year or next. Economy is robust right now. Great job creation just not as good as the last few years.