Anonymous wrote:The saddest thing is there is no coming back from this. Even if the US elects an all-Democratic Presidency and Congress in 2028, the long-ter damage to US credibility means that no US trade agreement or military treaty will be taken seriously in the future. Eventually our status as world reserve currency will be eclipsed, maybe by China, as nations understand how fragile our government actually is. Like Russia, the US will only have the "stick" of a huge military to sway other nations.

This a million time. Trump 2016 could have been a fluke, a protest vote that somehow won. but Trump voted three times, a win in 2024 after all he did and was he was promising. this is no longer a fluke and other countries are readjusting. see Europe working to build its own security system independent from the US (and based on EU defense industry, not US), Germany weakening spending rules and rearming first time in 80 years. also, why people should negotiate agreements with the US while they are clearly toilet paper for the US? Trump renegotiated Nafta in his first term, making it the best agreement possible blah vlah and the day be become president just a few years later first thing he puts tariffs on Canada. so why Canada should negotiate another agreement if the US will not comply with it. why should Iran negotiate an agreement with Trump when Trump tore down the previous agreement while Iran was in compliance? when the US shows that agreements are not worth the paper they are written on, why countries should enter into agreements with the US. the US is obviously a powerful country with leverage, but traditional allies are just going to move to go on their own. we all got the crazy uncle ranting at Thanksgiving idiotic things on economy, foreign policy and so on. well, now we have the crazy uncle running the country.

Anonymous wrote:I'm talking about the evolution of US - 5 years before we understand what the impact globally of this admin. Yes, we will feel short term results for sure but I'm referring to the context of our global standing and Econ opportunities that position us globally. This isn't just a blimp that goes away after this admin - we're going down as a country on the global stage - I don't think we're going to recover given that we aren't even at 100 days into the admin!

Well at least we will have Fox News and Russian on our side! 2 trillion dollar economy! Instead of Europe, Japan, South Korea, Canada, Australia and Mexico with a combined GDP of 38 trillion. We are so F’ed.

I'm talking about the evolution of US - 5 years before we understand what the impact globally of this admin. Yes, we will feel short term results for sure but I'm referring to the context of our global standing and Econ opportunities that position us globally. This isn't just a blimp that goes away after this admin - we're going down as a country on the global stage - I don't think we're going to recover given that we aren't even at 100 days into the admin!

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The saddest thing is there is no coming back from this. Even if the US elects an all-Democratic Presidency and Congress in 2028, the long-ter damage to US credibility means that no US trade agreement or military treaty will be taken seriously in the future. Eventually our status as world reserve currency will be eclipsed, maybe by China, as nations understand how fragile our government actually is. Like Russia, the US will only have the "stick" of a huge military to sway other nations.

You are half right. This will do long term damage to America’s international reputation but the idea that China will (or is even willing to) become the reserve currency is laughable. No country with an aging, shrinking population is going to become the world’s reserve currency. That would be economic suicide.

The USA was the world’s trade balancing account. There simply is no country/economy (or combination of those) of scale that can step in and fill the role of the American economy under the status quo. Period. The options are simply cave into American demands or, essentially, other countries must go through the painful process of retreating from international trade as an engine for economic growth.

All these allies banding together are going to do what, exactly? Move away from the American economy and figure out how some of them will sustainably run trade deficits? Good luck, that’ll last one election cycle for whichever international leader is so bold as to try it. Nobody is signing up to become the next UK.

But you know if nobody wants to have anything to do w the US, they find a way to do business with a number of countries and if it's a true partnership, they will make it work fine. The choices are ti align with a country that will stab you and acts erratically or figure out another plan - choice A may be preferred but in the absence of that as a tangible strategy, you make work what you can. OP I think you miscalculate that while you are correct that US is an amazing market, people have to still want be interested in playing in this market. There's others to choose from and personally I'd rather win moderately than lose spectacularly.

The US is done. We pretty much self destructed by electing Trump. Within 5-10 years we will witness the impact of the destruction. It's pretty much over for us globally. Both foreign policy wise and economically.

It won't take 5-10 years. We will start feeling the impact later this year (and in some cases like travel and tourism, months) and it will be felt for the next generation.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The saddest thing is there is no coming back from this. Even if the US elects an all-Democratic Presidency and Congress in 2028, the long-ter damage to US credibility means that no US trade agreement or military treaty will be taken seriously in the future. Eventually our status as world reserve currency will be eclipsed, maybe by China, as nations understand how fragile our government actually is. Like Russia, the US will only have the "stick" of a huge military to sway other nations.

You are half right. This will do long term damage to America’s international reputation but the idea that China will (or is even willing to) become the reserve currency is laughable. No country with an aging, shrinking population is going to become the world’s reserve currency. That would be economic suicide.

The USA was the world’s trade balancing account. There simply is no country/economy (or combination of those) of scale that can step in and fill the role of the American economy under the status quo. Period. The options are simply cave into American demands or, essentially, other countries must go through the painful process of retreating from international trade as an engine for economic growth.

All these allies banding together are going to do what, exactly? Move away from the American economy and figure out how some of them will sustainably run trade deficits? Good luck, that’ll last one election cycle for whichever international leader is so bold as to try it. Nobody is signing up to become the next UK.

But you know if nobody wants to have anything to do w the US, they find a way to do business with a number of countries and if it's a true partnership, they will make it work fine. The choices are ti align with a country that will stab you and acts erratically or figure out another plan - choice A may be preferred but in the absence of that as a tangible strategy, you make work what you can. OP I think you miscalculate that while you are correct that US is an amazing market, people have to still want be interested in playing in this market. There's others to choose from and personally I'd rather win moderately than lose spectacularly.

The US is done. We pretty much self destructed by electing Trump. Within 5-10 years we will witness the impact of the destruction. It's pretty much over for us globally. Both foreign policy wise and economically.

I will probably post this a hundred time in the next month, but it is ponderous to me that American fortune 500 businesses, the US Chamber of Commerce etc are all just, what, going to let this happen?

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The saddest thing is there is no coming back from this. Even if the US elects an all-Democratic Presidency and Congress in 2028, the long-ter damage to US credibility means that no US trade agreement or military treaty will be taken seriously in the future. Eventually our status as world reserve currency will be eclipsed, maybe by China, as nations understand how fragile our government actually is. Like Russia, the US will only have the "stick" of a huge military to sway other nations.

It will take 20-30 years if goodwill before any of our current allies consider taking us back.

Yep. And we will have to do a lot of a/: kissing. We can thank Trump. Isn’t this great. His Mr tough guy/diplomacy is for losers approach will spectacularly backfire.

Possibly move to bitcoin or some other crypto.

Anonymous wrote:The saddest thing is there is no coming back from this. Even if the US elects an all-Democratic Presidency and Congress in 2028, the long-ter damage to US credibility means that no US trade agreement or military treaty will be taken seriously in the future. Eventually our status as world reserve currency will be eclipsed, maybe by China, as nations understand how fragile our government actually is. Like Russia, the US will only have the "stick" of a huge military to sway other nations.

You are half right. This will do long term damage to America’s international reputation but the idea that China will (or is even willing to) become the reserve currency is laughable. No country with an aging, shrinking population is going to become the world’s reserve currency. That would be economic suicide.

The USA was the world’s trade balancing account. There simply is no country/economy (or combination of those) of scale that can step in and fill the role of the American economy under the status quo. Period. The options are simply cave into American demands or, essentially, other countries must go through the painful process of retreating from international trade as an engine for economic growth.

All these allies banding together are going to do what, exactly? Move away from the American economy and figure out how some of them will sustainably run trade deficits? Good luck, that’ll last one election cycle for whichever international leader is so bold as to try it. Nobody is signing up to become the next UK.