Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don’t think the President, even this one, has that much to do with what the economy does.

1M+ Federal employees and all the contractors laid off will have an effect. This was an economy that was doing ok by most macroeconomic measures. Some tightening (cutting some weird provisions in the IRA) and trimming here and there, and he could have declared victory. This is going to be painful -- DC will be a company town that lost its main factory.

If that happens, then so be it. The US has a population of 340 million people. If 1 million people are laid off but life becomes drastically better for the other 339 million, that is a net benefit to society.

Horse-and-buggy operators did not do fare well following the invention of the automobile—that does not mean that it was a mistake to cease relying on them for transportation. The only difference is that Trump’s purge is likely to benefit us even more since the primary services that Feds currently provide us are grift and fraud to ensure they can continue to live in homes in North Arlington.

I appreciate a good analogy. But your horse and buggy one doesn’t fly. The horse and buggy operators weren’t all terminated or obsolete all at the same time. There was time for them to realize that they may need to look for a new job or a new way to make a living for their families. Flat out firing then of thousands of people all at once will not help the economy. The repercussions will take decades to repair.

Anonymous wrote:The only real check on Trump will be when his policies become unpopular. And that will take time, but I’m pretty sure we will get there. Senators Britt and Cassidy have been making noise about NIH cuts that affect research grants in their states. I live near Boston which is a biotech hub so concern here too.

I would save money now and take it one day at a time. Panic helps nothing but it’s good to be realistic.

The chickens have come to roost for this one. Huntsville is a fed town, and the shining jewel in Alabama's rusty a$$ crown. Britt campaigned all day and all night on Trump's crap. I hope Huntsvillians are making life very uncomfortable for her office right now.

The only real check on Trump will be when his policies become unpopular. And that will take time, but I’m pretty sure we will get there. Senators Britt and Cassidy have been making noise about NIH cuts that affect research grants in their states. I live near Boston which is a biotech hub so concern here too.

I would save money now and take it one day at a time. Panic helps nothing but it’s good to be realistic.

Anonymous wrote:Anyone who has lived through the collapse of a democracy or studied that topic is very worried. Are they crazy or just better informed than you about the signs that institutions are failing and power is being dangerously ceded to one man with authoritarian tendencies?

A lot depends on if the executive still follows the courts. The legislative branch has shown no signs of being a check. They’ve been verbally threatening not to follow court orders for a few days. Threatening judges. Project 2025 says ignore the court rulings and proceed with your policies.

Are we crazy for taking them at their word? Where do other people find the confidence to believe they wouldn’t actually do it?

Most Americans are used to the swing from conservative to liberal and back. And it feels chaotic at times. But we have never experienced system failures. So we won't see the real damage until it's too late.

Btw, I hope I’m wrong and the courts stop the constitutional trespasses. I hope they recognize the constitutionality of independent agencies like the Fed and we don’t let the President mess with the money supply or interest rates. But currently, the Executive is clearly operating under the idea that there is a unitary executive completely under the whims of the President.

Why do so many have the confidence that America could never be another Italy, Germany, Japan in WWII? Or like one of the military dictatorships that spread across Latin America in the 1970s and 1980s? Why are we exempt from bloody civil wars?

I guess I’ve never truly viewed our country as immune from these kinds of disruptive regimes, but I find many people truly can’t conceive of it. Which of us is delusional?

lol if Republicans were pissed about having to see homeless people in public just wait until this time next year.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don’t think the President, even this one, has that much to do with what the economy does.

1M+ Federal employees and all the contractors laid off will have an effect. This was an economy that was doing ok by most macroeconomic measures. Some tightening (cutting some weird provisions in the IRA) and trimming here and there, and he could have declared victory. This is going to be painful -- DC will be a company town that lost its main factory.

If that happens, then so be it. The US has a population of 340 million people. If 1 million people are laid off but life becomes drastically better for the other 339 million, that is a net benefit to society.

Horse-and-buggy operators did not do fare well following the invention of the automobile—that does not mean that it was a mistake to cease relying on them for transportation. The only difference is that Trump’s purge is likely to benefit us even more since the primary services that Feds currently provide us are grift and fraud to ensure they can continue to live in homes in North Arlington.

Ok simpleton. The government doesn’t exist in a vacuum. It also funds nonprofits, provides healthcare for low income people, and creates private sector industries.

Not to mention government services grinding to a halt are not good for the economy. What happens when we’re down to just 25% of TSA agents? What happens when patents cannot be processed in a timely manner? What happens when our money in the bank is no longer insured? And so on …

I bet you’re one of those people who screams about getting the government out of your social security.

Anyone who has lived through the collapse of a democracy or studied that topic is very worried. Are they crazy or just better informed than you about the signs that institutions are failing and power is being dangerously ceded to one man with authoritarian tendencies?

A lot depends on if the executive still follows the courts. The legislative branch has shown no signs of being a check. They’ve been verbally threatening not to follow court orders for a few days. Threatening judges. Project 2025 says ignore the court rulings and proceed with your policies.

Are we crazy for taking them at their word? Where do other people find the confidence to believe they wouldn’t actually do it?

I think we will be in full-blown recession by November. That will be ten months into this incoherent "plan" the POTUS is embarking on. At that point, the tariffs will have trickled down to everyone, and there will be so many job losses and belt-tightening that we'll likely have deflation and 8% unemployment. The oligarchs won't feel a thing. Their bank accounts will get larger and larger as the rest of us suffer.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don’t think the President, even this one, has that much to do with what the economy does.

1M+ Federal employees and all the contractors laid off will have an effect. This was an economy that was doing ok by most macroeconomic measures. Some tightening (cutting some weird provisions in the IRA) and trimming here and there, and he could have declared victory. This is going to be painful -- DC will be a company town that lost its main factory.

If that happens, then so be it. The US has a population of 340 million people. If 1 million people are laid off but life becomes drastically better for the other 339 million, that is a net benefit to society.

Horse-and-buggy operators did not do fare well following the invention of the automobile—that does not mean that it was a mistake to cease relying on them for transportation. The only difference is that Trump’s purge is likely to benefit us even more since the primary services that Feds currently provide us are grift and fraud to ensure they can continue to live in homes in North Arlington.

Anonymous wrote:Egg prices and some un-needed federal workers?

Economy is gonna be fine

Adults are talking here, run along now. Don’t forget to brush your teeth, if you have any.

Egg prices and some un-needed federal workers?

Economy is gonna be fine

If the economy didn't collapse when my groceries went up from 275/week to over 400, gas up, utilities bezerk, 40-year high inflation, then think it would take another black swan event like march 2020.

I feel awful for the stress and financial chaos trump is inflicting on our Fed neighbors. It's not right.

Big picture on the macro economy - I don't think we are headed for a collapse.

The summer, if we're lucky