Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It's been said that if Homs falls, Israel will invade in the south to create a buffer zone.

This is very bad for the Israelis. I am surprised they have not invaded and crushed the rebels forces. At least make some air strikes on the rebels? Like you say it is a golden opportunity for the Israelis take some territory though the IDF suffered a lot of casualties in Lebanon.

Why? Given Iran is on Assad's side right now, Israel is probably funding the rebels.

Iran is out. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/06/world/middleeast/iran-syria-evacuation.html?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-nytimes

Russia is out. https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/12/06/russians-in-syria-urged-to-leave-country-a87254

Assad is done.

Seems so. Erdogan didn’t mince his words today either. I’m not quite sure what Turkey’s beef is with him, but they sure want him gone. I thought the Kurds were anti-Assad too.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It's been said that if Homs falls, Israel will invade in the south to create a buffer zone.

This is very bad for the Israelis. I am surprised they have not invaded and crushed the rebels forces. At least make some air strikes on the rebels? Like you say it is a golden opportunity for the Israelis take some territory though the IDF suffered a lot of casualties in Lebanon.

Why? Given Iran is on Assad's side right now, Israel is probably funding the rebels.

Iran is out. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/06/world/middleeast/iran-syria-evacuation.html?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-nytimes

Russia is out. https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/12/06/russians-in-syria-urged-to-leave-country-a87254

Assad is done.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It's been said that if Homs falls, Israel will invade in the south to create a buffer zone.

This is very bad for the Israelis. I am surprised they have not invaded and crushed the rebels forces. At least make some air strikes on the rebels? Like you say it is a golden opportunity for the Israelis take some territory though the IDF suffered a lot of casualties in Lebanon.

Why? Given Iran is on Assad's side right now, Israel is probably funding the rebels.

Israel wants its neighbors to be failed states and lawless. It is much easier to do another Gaza, Lebanon or just bomb civilians every few months in a “failed” states full of “terrorists”. Israel can not let a state emerge from Syria. Syria has 3 times the population of Israel and is in a strategic cross roads in the Middle East. They can not let something like that emerge from that area.

Let’s not forget everyone who shares a border with Israel hates Israel.

Everyone seems to put their hands in Syria .
Russia and Iran helping the government.
Turkey supporting the rebels.
I think Israel and USA soft support of rebels.

That's changing very quickly. The Russians are presently abandoning their air base and they've sent their ships out to sea. Lebanon has closed all but one border crossing with Syria and Israel is bombing all the supply routes that Iran uses to smuggle weapons to Hezbollah.

Without Russian air power and Hezbollah and Iranian fighters, the Assad regime cannot survive. The Syrian Army is demoralized, poorly trained, and underpaid. It's just conscripts who would like to see tomorrow. Once Homs falls, they will have a few days at most to decide whether to try to defend Damascus or retreat to their natural power base on the coast. Turkey will be the power broker in most of Syria. Assad is done. But it's not at all clear what follows. Syria has only known dictatorships. Civil society doesn't exist. There are no mechanisms for a change in power in Syria besides brute force. And the "rebels" have so many different interests and benefactors that no one knows how it's all going to shake out. Add in what remains of ISIS and other jihadist groups and the likelihood for chaos is very high.

The velocity of this offensive has taken everyone by surprise.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It's been said that if Homs falls, Israel will invade in the south to create a buffer zone.

This is very bad for the Israelis. I am surprised they have not invaded and crushed the rebels forces. At least make some air strikes on the rebels? Like you say it is a golden opportunity for the Israelis take some territory though the IDF suffered a lot of casualties in Lebanon.

Why? Given Iran is on Assad's side right now, Israel is probably funding the rebels.

Israel wants its neighbors to be failed states and lawless. It is much easier to do another Gaza, Lebanon or just bomb civilians every few months in a “failed” states full of “terrorists”. Israel can not let a state emerge from Syria. Syria has 3 times the population of Israel and is in a strategic cross roads in the Middle East. They can not let something like that emerge from that area.

Let’s not forget everyone who shares a border with Israel hates Israel.

Everyone seems to put their hands in Syria .
Russia and Iran helping the government.
Turkey supporting the rebels.
I think Israel and USA soft support of rebels.

Anonymous wrote:With help and fighter cover from the USAF.

Biden trying to get us into yet ANOTHER war on his way to the junkyard.

The junkyard was he visiting President elect Dumpy?

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Are we supposed to care?

Do you remember ISIS ?
They like failed states.

+1. and 9/11. these rebels were originally an offshoot of al qaeda. these are islamists. they are the world’s problem.

The Israelis supported ISIS with aid, weapons and safe areas. They saw ISIS as a challenge to Hezbollah supremacy in the region. They hoped ISIS would fight is out and weaken or destroy Hezbollah.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It's been said that if Homs falls, Israel will invade in the south to create a buffer zone.

This is very bad for the Israelis. I am surprised they have not invaded and crushed the rebels forces. At least make some air strikes on the rebels? Like you say it is a golden opportunity for the Israelis take some territory though the IDF suffered a lot of casualties in Lebanon.

Why? Given Iran is on Assad's side right now, Israel is probably funding the rebels.

Israel wants its neighbors to be failed states and lawless. It is much easier to do another Gaza, Lebanon or just bomb civilians every few months in a “failed” states full of “terrorists”. Israel can not let a state emerge from Syria. Syria has 3 times the population of Israel and is in a strategic cross roads in the Middle East. They can not let something like that emerge from that area.

Let’s not forget everyone who shares a border with Israel hates Israel.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Are we supposed to care?

Do you remember ISIS ?
They like failed states.

+1. and 9/11. these rebels were originally an offshoot of al qaeda. these are islamists. they are the world’s problem.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It's been said that if Homs falls, Israel will invade in the south to create a buffer zone.

This is very bad for the Israelis. I am surprised they have not invaded and crushed the rebels forces. At least make some air strikes on the rebels? Like you say it is a golden opportunity for the Israelis take some territory though the IDF suffered a lot of casualties in Lebanon.

Why? Given Iran is on Assad's side right now, Israel is probably funding the rebels.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I feel like a dumbass, but I really don’t understand what’s happening in Syria and who’s who in the conflict.

Don't be so hard on yourself, its comically convoluted. Different intelligence agencies support different groups of "moderate terrorists" and sometimes they fight each other. Israel bombs Syria on the regular. Turkey is feeding mercenaries and jihadis into the conflict. The US has bases in eastern Syria to support various terrorist groups and oil companies. There are even Ukrainian training the terrorists on drone warfare.

On the Syrian side you have the Syrian government, Russian regular forces, Iranians, Iraqis and even the Kurds it seems.

Pretty much everyone has their own angle, and if Assad were to be toppled, it could unleash quite the chaos. Probably wouldn't be contained to Syria.

Doesn't seem like the Iranians and Iraqis sent to fight aren't having much of any impact and Russia appears to be bailing on Syria. And I think most of the Kurds oppose Assad.

The Kurds are playing both sides, and American/Israeli airstrikes are limiting how quickly Iranian and Iraqi forces can arrive.

The real issue is that apparently the Syrian army has 0 fight in it. Armored units are running from pickup trucks, and apparently no one thought to even dig a trench anywhere. Its really pretty pathetic.

It reminds me of Afghanistan. In some countries, the line between stability and mayhem is papyrus thin. What's different now is that the Assad regime has for all intents and purposes lost their main allies. Hezbollah was a major military force for Assad. Obviously, since then Israel has destroyed Hezbollah. And Russia, which was responsible for scorched earth aerial bombing that killed many more civilians than ISIS ever did, can no longer afford to use more military resources to preserve Assad. Ukraine has wrecked the Russian military. Russia will defend its naval port in Syria while they can, but are otherwise out. They don't have the resources anymore since their dumbass invasion of Ukraine.

So Assad is effectively alone now. And fear does not beget loyalty. The moment the tide turned, the Syrian Army fled - and they are still fleeing. I don't know how this ends. There are too many armies and militias with various interests. And there are too many external countries involved, from Turkey to Iran to the US to Israel to Russia. And Syria is way too messy with ethnicities and factions - Kurds, Druze, Alawites, Sunni, Shi'a, etc. Plus there are a significant number of Islamic fanatics involved. It's a mess.

Hopefully, it stays within the borders. Iran may choose to become more involved since Assad is an ally, but after watching allies like Hamas and Hezbollah get wrecked, perhaps they'll think twice. Regardless, it will be chaotic in Syria for the next few days and weeks. Assad will likely flee to Moscow or Tehran soon.

Thousands of people have fled the city of Homs as anti government forces push south toward Damascus.

Anonymous wrote:Things are rapidly collapsing for Assad and Russia. Russian troops are withdrawing fast, and Assadists have been evacuating to Latakia and the coast.

Skynews Arabia is reportedly saying that Russia has informed Damascus that any further interventions by Russia will be limited and that Russia has "other priorities" - they are cutting and running.

At this point it looks like Assadists in Homs have evacuated and a lot of the military is on the run, Homs will probably fall today or tomorrow, and Damascus will be cut off from the coastal Alawite stronghold, Latakia and Tartus. Damascus will probably fall soon as well.

The three biggest opposition factions appear to be HTS, SDF and the Turkish puppets in the north, they all appear to be making fast and furious territory grabs, but it looks like there are other militias in pockets throughout the country that previously had armistice deals with Assad that are now rising up and taking over Assad's territories as well. Unclear who will align with who and how this will all turn out when the dust settles

This is going to be like Libya after Gaddafi.

Anonymous wrote:It's been said that if Homs falls, Israel will invade in the south to create a buffer zone.

This is very bad for the Israelis. I am surprised they have not invaded and crushed the rebels forces. At least make some air strikes on the rebels? Like you say it is a golden opportunity for the Israelis take some territory though the IDF suffered a lot of casualties in Lebanon.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I feel like a dumbass, but I really don’t understand what’s happening in Syria and who’s who in the conflict.

Don't be so hard on yourself, its comically convoluted. Different intelligence agencies support different groups of "moderate terrorists" and sometimes they fight each other. Israel bombs Syria on the regular. Turkey is feeding mercenaries and jihadis into the conflict. The US has bases in eastern Syria to support various terrorist groups and oil companies. There are even Ukrainian training the terrorists on drone warfare.

On the Syrian side you have the Syrian government, Russian regular forces, Iranians, Iraqis and even the Kurds it seems.

Pretty much everyone has their own angle, and if Assad were to be toppled, it could unleash quite the chaos. Probably wouldn't be contained to Syria.

Doesn't seem like the Iranians and Iraqis sent to fight aren't having much of any impact and Russia appears to be bailing on Syria. And I think most of the Kurds oppose Assad.

The Kurds are playing both sides, and American/Israeli airstrikes are limiting how quickly Iranian and Iraqi forces can arrive.

The real issue is that apparently the Syrian army has 0 fight in it. Armored units are running from pickup trucks, and apparently no one thought to even dig a trench anywhere. Its really pretty pathetic.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Aren’t predictable dictators better than unpredictable rebels ?

Israelis will not like this. Syria could be come a stable country.

lol…the rebels are not educated technocrats. Have you heard them speak, these are future warlords which will result in chaos. The Kurds have a chance if they can break off into a separate country and Turkey doesn’t interfere (which of course they will). This is the Middle East, prepare for more chaos and finger pointing.