Anonymous
11/13/2024 09:12
Subject: Cars - tariff impact
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:We need a new car. Probably a Kia/Honda/Toyota. Will they likely see price increases with Trumps tariffs? Or will he push in lower rates which will make financing cheaper?
It is unlikely there will be any car tarriffs on gas cars -- electric is likely. If there are on gas cars -- if the cars are built here then there will be exemptions. No parts tarriffs as that would impact Ford, GM, Jeep, and most importantly Tesla.
Trump was talking about putting tariffs on cars made in Mexico. About 48% of new cars in the US are imported from Mexico(19%), Korea, Japan, Germany and Canada. Trump said a 30-60% tariffs on these cars and 1000% of Chinese cars. Did not say anything about car parts. To do this with Mexico and Canada he has to leave USMCA. That would cause huge disruptions. Just the increase in food prices would shock the US consumer.
The EV thing is real. The Chinese EVs are 2 to 3 generations ahead of the US. They have cars that are equivalent of Tesla S, Porsche Macan ev or BMW i5 (ie $70-85k popular models) that are about $40k. They have cheaper models that are $10-20k(this is insane!). The scary thing is they are projecting price drops of 30% for next year or two.
The big US, Korean, Japanese and European car manufacturers are scared sh#tless of Chinese EVs. They do not see a way to compete. This includes Tesla. Telsa has not kept up with updating their cars. 3 to 5 years you could get a new EV better vs the high end EVs currently selling for $30k or less.
The unions do not like EVs because they take about 1/2 the labor hours to build vs a gas car. The battery is complex but it is highly automated. The car parts manufacturers(rust belt and Mexico) will lose out because EVs have a lot less parts. You do not need the same numbers of gas stations because 80-90% of EV cars trips are charged at home. Less maintenance(oil changes, brakes, etc) means less work for repair shops mechanics. This is one of the reasons the unions voted for Trump. Though it is most likely a losing battle.
If EVs become widely accepted (let’s say 50% of the new cars sold) work force in the car manufacturing and parts will likely be 1/2 of what it is today. Remember an $20-$30k car will get a lot of people looking. Add in the reduced demand for gas and oil. EVs are very scary!
I know change is really hard and when it comes to people and their careers, it can't happen instantaneously. But a reduced demand for people to build cars means that we increase the supply of people to do other jobs we desperately need filled. And I don't mean teaching and healthcare, though we do desperately need more people in those fields. There are about 500K positions in data security, most of which do not require a ton of training/degrees that are looking for workers. There is a desperate need for skilled labor to build submarines. We are woefully behind in the number of housing units available compared to the size and growth of our population and will need more housing built quickly (it already is a government issue and it will become one more so. It mostly falls to the local governments who will find a way to fund without the feds if they have to.) So this is all to say...sometimes our careers need to adapt to progress. And there are a lot of free/subsidized ed programs to help make career changes to high-demand fields. Get out there and grab one if this is of a concern to you.
Anonymous
11/12/2024 21:41
Subject: Cars - tariff impact
*pay
Anonymous
11/12/2024 21:41
Subject: Cars - tariff impact
Companies outside the us will not play tariffs. Tariffs are levied on importers and most likely to be paid by consumers.
Anonymous
11/10/2024 07:52
Subject: Re:Cars - tariff impact
Anonymous wrote:We decided to buy a new RAV4 today to replace our 2012 Outback. just in case.
Where was it manufactured?