Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:My parents live in Tampa and refuse to evacuate. They aren’t in a flood zone but I’m very stressed.

This is unconscionable. Putting the first responders lives at risk.

Please stop. It is recommended that people outside of flood and evacuation zones stay home. Even Jim Cantore says so. Some people decide to leave anyway - mostly if they are worried about their roofs or trees, or if they don't want to deal with power being out. But people outside of flood and evacuation zones, in strong houses, are often safest staying put - and not clogging up the road, where gas is scarce as are hotel rooms.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:From my weather discussion board:

"I don’t think many people from outside the area here fully appreciate the situation we find ourselves in here around the shore areas of Tampa Bay

there’s literally piles ten feet high of debris , discarded furniture, appliances and miscellaneous crap up and down the coast for miles and miles. I doubt much of it will be picked up by the time the rains hit. Any surge or even just heavy rains in this area will push that stuff into houses and cars and create tremendous hazards for anyone caught in the flood path.


if we get cane strength winds ahead of the flooding then all those items will also go flying. I mean you couldn’t script a more damaging scenario if you tried.

i also failed to mention how all that crap by the side of the roads will certainly clog up our storm drains in short order. A mild surge can then turn into a major flood even in areas that don’t normally flood."

As an outsider this message is a little peeving.
Could you respond:

Yes and people outside our area don't fully appreciate why we stay in a hurricane-prone area while being so passive while they subsidize your insurance and rescue efforts. Let's get some folks with pickup trucks to haul away the debris, little by little. We can make an impact if we all work as a community and act like a community that needs to do this, or we go under. Literally. Storm drain cleaning starts today after work. All hands needed.

Did you see the quotes? I was reposting the insight of someone on the ground. I live in DC. But until whole swathes of land are rendered functionally inhabitable by natural disasters exacerbated by climate change, we need those insights, to help the people with interests there. If you're living in your parent's house in Florida and can't easily sell, I can see why you'd still be there. There are lots of poor communities who can't up and leave. There are lots of seniors who don't understand the first thing about climate change and think "what the heck, I'm only going to live for 10 more years, let me get a little sun and warmth while I can". There are lots of rich people who benefit from the tax status there. That sort of thing. Ultimately, governments will push people out by refusing to insure their properties and declaring some areas no-build zones. Individuals often don't measure risk correctly. It's up to governments to pressure them into doing the right thing. In an ideal world where the government works for the people, that is...

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Very bad timing, physically (before Helene debris are cleared away) and politically. There will probably be a ton of disinformation from foreign agents and the fringe right once everyone in Central Florida loses power, just like there is now in North Carolina.

I live in Tampa Bay. I don't see this happening-people in Florida expect hurricanes. You understand the possibility of power outages. I havent' seen or heard of anyone who thinks it is anything other than weather related. But, I also don't hang out with weirdos, so there's that.

I will say-I, and many others here, are so completely shocked at how hard Helene hit NC. You expect it 'here', but not there!

I live in Tampa Bay and that is my experience, too. We are staying home for Milton (at least as of now) - we aren't in a flood or evacuation zone. But ugh, ugh - I am so tired. So many people lost their homes already. There is debris and yard waste everywhere already. Down by the water, people's whole houses are out on their driveways - one person who lost his house joked to me over the weekend that now is the best time for another hurricane because his house is already destroyed and his stuff is already out. But my gd, it's so much.

And yes, NC is a complete shock.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Milton is already a Cat 4 (nearly or STB Cat 5) but they're not saying that it will continue to strengthen as it continues over the Gulf? Why would this one not continue to strengthen as other hurricanes have done?

It may strengthen to a Cat 5 but then will weaken before landfall because of wind shear it will encounter. There are several factors that can weaken a hurricane: Dry air, Wind Shear, Land, Cooler Waters. It's predicted there will be some high wind shear that will cut into Milton before landfall, bringing it to category three or lower before landfall.

That would be enough to overcome the warm temperature of the water? I'm not arguing, I'm just surprised.

Anonymous wrote:Milton is already a Cat 4 (nearly or STB Cat 5) but they're not saying that it will continue to strengthen as it continues over the Gulf? Why would this one not continue to strengthen as other hurricanes have done?

It may strengthen to a Cat 5 but then will weaken before landfall because of wind shear it will encounter. There are several factors that can weaken a hurricane: Dry air, Wind Shear, Land, Cooler Waters. It's predicted there will be some high wind shear that will cut into Milton before landfall, bringing it to category three or lower before landfall.

Anonymous wrote:My parents live in Tampa and refuse to evacuate. They aren’t in a flood zone but I’m very stressed.

This is unconscionable. Putting the first responders lives at risk.

Milton is already a Cat 4 (nearly or STB Cat 5) but they're not saying that it will continue to strengthen as it continues over the Gulf? Why would this one not continue to strengthen as other hurricanes have done?

Anonymous wrote:My son is evacuating late tonight or very early tomorrow. He lives a block off a canal in Tampa and they’re calling for potentially the strongest storm to hit there in over 100 years. It’s not worth the risk of staying.

I would not wait until tommorrow TBH - traffic and gas shortages.

Anonymous wrote:Yes, this one is not good. So close and we won't know where it hits until so close to impact people cannot leave. It is terrible. I'm in Broward and stocked up on more supplies this am.

FL is getting plenty of warning on this one- the northern Yucatan peninsula, not so much.

Anonymous wrote:My parents live in Tampa and refuse to evacuate. They aren’t in a flood zone but I’m very stressed.

Are they in a two-story home somewhat inland?

My parents live in Tampa and refuse to evacuate. They aren’t in a flood zone but I’m very stressed.

My son is evacuating late tonight or very early tomorrow. He lives a block off a canal in Tampa and they’re calling for potentially the strongest storm to hit there in over 100 years. It’s not worth the risk of staying.

Anonymous wrote:From my weather discussion board:

"I don’t think many people from outside the area here fully appreciate the situation we find ourselves in here around the shore areas of Tampa Bay

there’s literally piles ten feet high of debris , discarded furniture, appliances and miscellaneous crap up and down the coast for miles and miles. I doubt much of it will be picked up by the time the rains hit. Any surge or even just heavy rains in this area will push that stuff into houses and cars and create tremendous hazards for anyone caught in the flood path.


if we get cane strength winds ahead of the flooding then all those items will also go flying. I mean you couldn’t script a more damaging scenario if you tried.

i also failed to mention how all that crap by the side of the roads will certainly clog up our storm drains in short order. A mild surge can then turn into a major flood even in areas that don’t normally flood."

As an outsider this message is a little peeving.
Could you respond:

Yes and people outside our area don't fully appreciate why we stay in a hurricane-prone area while being so passive while they subsidize your insurance and rescue efforts. Let's get some folks with pickup trucks to haul away the debris, little by little. We can make an impact if we all work as a community and act like a community that needs to do this, or we go under. Literally. Storm drain cleaning starts today after work. All hands needed.

Will this be "the big one" for Tampa?

Anonymous wrote:Yes, this one is not good. So close and we won't know where it hits until so close to impact people cannot leave. It is terrible. I'm in Broward and stocked up on more supplies this am.

A pretty wide area on the west coast of FL is going to be affected regardless of the exact tract. If I lived in the area with a predicted red peak surge I'd probably be making plans to leave now- we have friends in Ft. Myers who are getting out of dodge tonight, there was flooding close to their neighborhood after Hurricane Helene despite it making landfall on the panhandle.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/032733.shtml?peakSurge#contents