Anonymous
09/22/2024 19:00
Subject: Predictions easier cycle this year
That the world's best and brightest want to come here to study (and often to stay) is hardly a "problem." SMHAnonymous wrote:The problem for the most selective colleges is that international students apply to the same cohort of schools. There are ever increasing numbers of international students.
Look at the massive numbers applying to the T20's, the Boston schools, the west coast schools, etc.
Anonymous
09/22/2024 18:30
Subject: Predictions easier cycle this year
The problem for the most selective colleges is that international students apply to the same cohort of schools. There are ever increasing numbers of international students.
Look at the massive numbers applying to the T20's, the Boston schools, the west coast schools, etc.
Look at the massive numbers applying to the T20's, the Boston schools, the west coast schools, etc.
Anonymous
09/22/2024 17:51
Subject: Predictions easier cycle this year
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:This year should make more sense because of more return to submitting test scores, cards will be on the table about how various schools handled the Supreme Court decision, and the FAFSA situation should be less horrible.
I agree, at some selective schools the app denominator will be reduced as TO goes away. But the students departing will have been unlikelys. There was a girl from our public that applied to Harvard with a 3.5 and sub-1400 SATs and just a lot of ECs. That's the kind of candidate who will be more rational if SAT requirements are enforced.
Was she Olympian quality in ECs?
No. Absolutely not. Just quantity of ECs and multiple officer roles. She's a hard worker and an optimist. A "Hey Why Not" kind of person. I like her a lot. But Harvard was never going to happen. She just doesn't know what it takes because there are barely any applicants to OOS selective schools here.
Anonymous
09/22/2024 17:49
Subject: Predictions easier cycle this year
I live in NY..
Our public school enrollment in 2019-2020 was 1.13mm. And two years later, 1.05mm. Those kids didn't disappear. Nor does it have anything to do with fertility. We had a pandemic, our schools were closed a lot longer than the rest of the country. People moved. Private schools had even more of an exodus because a lot zoomed into Packer from their country home upstate or on Long Island .. and then when mom and dad could work remote, they stayed out there.
But these are still very bright kids who will be applying from Ulster or Sag Harbor instead of Park Slope or the Upper East Side.
Our public schools are back up to their highs thanks to migrant population, which the DOE calls a blessing. (which I am happy about)
Our public school enrollment in 2019-2020 was 1.13mm. And two years later, 1.05mm. Those kids didn't disappear. Nor does it have anything to do with fertility. We had a pandemic, our schools were closed a lot longer than the rest of the country. People moved. Private schools had even more of an exodus because a lot zoomed into Packer from their country home upstate or on Long Island .. and then when mom and dad could work remote, they stayed out there.
But these are still very bright kids who will be applying from Ulster or Sag Harbor instead of Park Slope or the Upper East Side.
Our public schools are back up to their highs thanks to migrant population, which the DOE calls a blessing. (which I am happy about)
Anonymous
09/22/2024 17:47
Subject: Re:Predictions easier cycle this year
No, honey, no. Maybe UMN's acceptance rate goes from 75% to 77%. Maybe KU climbs back to 90%. (Or maybe not. Maybe instead high-quality flagship applications go up because strong students who previously would have been satisfied with regionals turn instead to their flagships as the regionals weaken.) We're talking about moves of that size at that level--at most.Anonymous wrote:What about T11-20?Anonymous wrote:^ from that article
While it will still be hard to get into highly-ranked universities like Dartmouth and Yale, it’ll be slightly easier than in the recent past, experts say.
“I don’t think we’re going to get to where it’s going to be easy to get into Yale. But I do think in terms of acceptance rates, we’ll start to see those widen a little bit.“
This “enrollment cliff” is expected to result in a 15% fall in college students after 2025, according to some experts, and some states will be impacted more heavily than others. For example, New York’s share of enrollments has already decreased.
“In the Northeast, we’re already in demographic decline,” Carleton’s Grawe says. “In that part of the county, fertility rates have been low for a while, and then the rest of the country decided to join in, in 2008” after the global recession. “So, here we are in 2024, and we start to see nationally smaller cohorts,” he adds.
It’s going to be a minor positive change for the top 10 schools. Slightly easier
Anonymous
09/22/2024 17:43
Subject: Predictions easier cycle this year
Whatever helps you sleep at night. Call it a "cliff" all you want; it's a grade of <1% per year for a dozen years. And its impact on admissions at the most selective schools will be less than that; it'll be imperceptible.
Anonymous
09/22/2024 17:39
Subject: Re:Predictions easier cycle this year
Anonymous wrote:^ from that article
While it will still be hard to get into highly-ranked universities like Dartmouth and Yale, it’ll be slightly easier than in the recent past, experts say.
“I don’t think we’re going to get to where it’s going to be easy to get into Yale. But I do think in terms of acceptance rates, we’ll start to see those widen a little bit.“
This “enrollment cliff” is expected to result in a 15% fall in college students after 2025, according to some experts, and some states will be impacted more heavily than others. For example, New York’s share of enrollments has already decreased.
“In the Northeast, we’re already in demographic decline,” Carleton’s Grawe says. “In that part of the county, fertility rates have been low for a while, and then the rest of the country decided to join in, in 2008” after the global recession. “So, here we are in 2024, and we start to see nationally smaller cohorts,” he adds.
It’s going to be a minor positive change for the top 10 schools. Slightly easier
What about T11-20?
Anonymous
09/22/2024 17:38
Subject: Predictions easier cycle this year
Anonymous wrote:This year should make more sense because of more return to submitting test scores, cards will be on the table about how various schools handled the Supreme Court decision, and the FAFSA situation should be less horrible.
I agree, at some selective schools the app denominator will be reduced as TO goes away. But the students departing will have been unlikelys. There was a girl from our public that applied to Harvard with a 3.5 and sub-1400 SATs and just a lot of ECs. That's the kind of candidate who will be more rational if SAT requirements are enforced.
Was she Olympian quality in ECs?
Anonymous
09/22/2024 17:34
Subject: Re:Predictions easier cycle this year
^ from that article
While it will still be hard to get into highly-ranked universities like Dartmouth and Yale, it’ll be slightly easier than in the recent past, experts say.
“I don’t think we’re going to get to where it’s going to be easy to get into Yale. But I do think in terms of acceptance rates, we’ll start to see those widen a little bit.“
This “enrollment cliff” is expected to result in a 15% fall in college students after 2025, according to some experts, and some states will be impacted more heavily than others. For example, New York’s share of enrollments has already decreased.
“In the Northeast, we’re already in demographic decline,” Carleton’s Grawe says. “In that part of the county, fertility rates have been low for a while, and then the rest of the country decided to join in, in 2008” after the global recession. “So, here we are in 2024, and we start to see nationally smaller cohorts,” he adds.
It’s going to be a minor positive change for the top 10 schools. Slightly easier
While it will still be hard to get into highly-ranked universities like Dartmouth and Yale, it’ll be slightly easier than in the recent past, experts say.
“I don’t think we’re going to get to where it’s going to be easy to get into Yale. But I do think in terms of acceptance rates, we’ll start to see those widen a little bit.“
This “enrollment cliff” is expected to result in a 15% fall in college students after 2025, according to some experts, and some states will be impacted more heavily than others. For example, New York’s share of enrollments has already decreased.
“In the Northeast, we’re already in demographic decline,” Carleton’s Grawe says. “In that part of the county, fertility rates have been low for a while, and then the rest of the country decided to join in, in 2008” after the global recession. “So, here we are in 2024, and we start to see nationally smaller cohorts,” he adds.
It’s going to be a minor positive change for the top 10 schools. Slightly easier
Anonymous
09/22/2024 17:27
Subject: Predictions easier cycle this year
This is the only snippet of the article that resembles analysis: “Some trimming will happen, mostly at a predictable subset of schools that are already struggling,” says David Feldman, a higher education economist at William & Mary. While he adds that the sector can withstand “the disappearance of a group of small, non-selective private colleges and the consolidation of some public regional universities,” he adds that, “those consolidations will be very painful for their communities.”Anonymous wrote:Not PP but,Anonymous wrote:What source?
https://www.forbes.com/sites/annaesakismith/2024/06/20/why-itll-likely-be-easier-getting-into-college-even-the-ivy-league-this-coming-admissions-cycle/
Putting "Ivy League" in the headline is pure clickbait.
Anonymous
09/22/2024 17:21
Subject: Re:Predictions easier cycle this year
I don't think the writer of that article has done the math right. This admissions cycle is kids born in 2006-2007. The "cliff" doesn't start until kids born in 2008-2009 at the earliest.