Anonymous wrote:Like air leaving the balloon?

Hahahahaaa NOPE

I am in CA, and I feel like prices have started to come down some. That being said, I do not believe they will come down 50% over the next few years. The supply is still low, but the flippers largely left the market.

More likely prices flatline but incomes increase so housing becomes more affordable. Eventually.

But there is also a clear major preference for desirable areas re location and schools so it's unlikely those markets will ever decline beyond the minor year long dip. You can't replicate Bethesda or Arlington and their versions in every city and buyers have shown strong willingness to accept tradeoffs for locations and schools.

If rates come down, prices will increase.

Any declines will be short term in 2024. Things are expected to improve within the commercial real estate and lending areas in 2025.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It will depend on the specific area. It might not be the same areas declining as the 2008-2012 financial crisis. I'd actually bet that it won't be the same areas.

It's definitely not the same segments of the market because foreclosures are not increasing like in 2008-20012. This will be more like the 80s. At least, that is what the fed chair is hoping. So far, it is starting to work.

What does that look like (like the 80s)?

Home prices were less volatile, so no bubbles to take advantage of, but no 20% plunges in property values, either.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It will depend on the specific area. It might not be the same areas declining as the 2008-2012 financial crisis. I'd actually bet that it won't be the same areas.

It's definitely not the same segments of the market because foreclosures are not increasing like in 2008-20012. This will be more like the 80s. At least, that is what the fed chair is hoping. So far, it is starting to work.

What does that look like (like the 80s)?

More likely that rates come down and prices stay high. The government can't afford 5.5% interest on $33.5 trillion in debt. They'll just let inflation run out of control and blame greedy corporations or some nonsense.

You have to define the time period, too. We are seeing short term declines. Speculators are already moving in this direction in our area, from flipping to buy-hold-rent.

No. I think it may soften slightly, but interests rates will tend down and supply will slowly increase, and prices will just flatten.

There is no large increase in supply; people are not desperate to sell. No reason for prices to fall.

Anonymous wrote:It will depend on the specific area. It might not be the same areas declining as the 2008-2012 financial crisis. I'd actually bet that it won't be the same areas.

It's definitely not the same segments of the market because foreclosures are not increasing like in 2008-20012. This will be more like the 80s. At least, that is what the fed chair is hoping. So far, it is starting to work.

Anonymous wrote:Yes. It’s already happening. I note the thread about Annie Lebowitz’s NYC apartment that sold for less than she paid 10 years ago.

NY is a different animal.

Anonymous wrote:Yes, it will. Prices have to come down.

Delusional.

All of it? No. Some of it? Yes. There is an imbalance in the market that will mean that some types of property will decrease and some will increase more or stay the same. That's one reason why the Fed is keeping rates up next year. It's more than just housing, but that's part of it. It's working in some segments of the real estate market already. Agents are whining in private.

Anonymous wrote:Like air leaving the balloon?

Yes or at least flatten out.