Anonymous
Post 08/14/2023 11:17     Subject: Feels like market is hitting a wall
There are only so many families who can afford $1.5MM+, and even fewer who can afford $1.5MM+ at 7% rates.

Realistically, Upper NW hit their wall 5-10 years ago once the average home broke the $1MM mark. Prices have been going up slower than inflation since then. The low inventory kept prices from falling but every neighborhood has a ceiling past which there simply aren't enough potential buyers to keep seeing stratospheric appreciation.

It has nothing to do with DC or Upper NW "declining," they're both still great and attractive places to live, we are simply reaching the point where most people who can afford to live in Upper NW and want to live in Upper NW already do.

Anonymous
Post 08/14/2023 11:01     Subject: Feels like market is hitting a wall
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:In my exurb, 600k houses are selling fast, 4-500k townhouses are mixed, and 7-800k houses are sitting. So There’s still a strong demand for a sweet spot, but outside of that stuff is sitting.


Nobody in their right mind would pay $800,000 to live in an exurb. Plenty of other options closer in at that price.


I can see people still buying the $800k homes in the exurbs. If that’s your budget but you want 4 bedrooms and some degree of land and new/newer construction (less than 20 years old) that’s where you have to look. Just in my general area (Burke, Springfield, Fairfax) there isn’t much right around that price, but there are less expensive TH and more expensive SFH.

Fed government seems to want to seriously push back on telework in the DC area, but from what I’m seeing, smaller to medium size businesses are happy with telework and not spending so much $$$ on commercial real estate leases in big office buildings. All that to say that, as always, prices and demand will fall first in the outer burbs vs. The city and the inner burbs, but there’s always going to be people who prefer the exurbs for whatever reasons.


Houses are going for over 800k close in as well in PGC.
Anonymous
Post 08/14/2023 10:56     Subject: Feels like market is hitting a wall
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Only a month or two left before student loan repayments restart. I expect to see a bigger shift in the market once that happens. And if spring season is a dud next year, that could impact prices


The people buying million dollar houses aren't concerned about their student loan repayments.


Tell that to the new lawyer, doctor, or PE associate. They have the cash flow for a home, doesn’t mean they aren’t cornered about their student loan payment.


They knew this when they signed the docs for their loans. Pay what you owe, build it into your budget. One would think and assume all of these "lawyers, doctors and PE associates" have the basic knowledge to understand this.
Anonymous
Post 08/14/2023 10:07     Subject: Feels like market is hitting a wall
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:In my exurb, 600k houses are selling fast, 4-500k townhouses are mixed, and 7-800k houses are sitting. So There’s still a strong demand for a sweet spot, but outside of that stuff is sitting.


Nobody in their right mind would pay $800,000 to live in an exurb. Plenty of other options closer in at that price.


Many people pay that much and even more. I am not interested in exurbia but I also can see the appeal. New housing, lots of open spaces, slower pace, schools are excellent and calm, and many people do like living abutting rural areas. And you do get bigger lots and housing. And a lot of people are also following politics in where they move and aren't interested in crazy progressive councils or DAs or schools. With remote work even only a few days a week it is much more feasible to live in exurbia.
Anonymous
Post 08/14/2023 09:40     Subject: Feels like market is hitting a wall
OP asked about upper NW. My take is that area attracts a lot of move-up buyers with higher dual incomes, and this category of people are increasingly deciding to stay in their current smaller/moderate residence which carries a 3% interest mortgage vs doubling their payment on a spacious upper NW SFH with a 7% mortgage.

That plus a good portion of higher dual income families travel in August and don’t want to close/move in September as school starts unless the perfect house pops up.
Anonymous
Post 08/14/2023 09:05     Subject: Feels like market is hitting a wall
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:In my exurb, 600k houses are selling fast, 4-500k townhouses are mixed, and 7-800k houses are sitting. So There’s still a strong demand for a sweet spot, but outside of that stuff is sitting.


Nobody in their right mind would pay $800,000 to live in an exurb. Plenty of other options closer in at that price.


I can see people still buying the $800k homes in the exurbs. If that’s your budget but you want 4 bedrooms and some degree of land and new/newer construction (less than 20 years old) that’s where you have to look. Just in my general area (Burke, Springfield, Fairfax) there isn’t much right around that price, but there are less expensive TH and more expensive SFH.

Fed government seems to want to seriously push back on telework in the DC area, but from what I’m seeing, smaller to medium size businesses are happy with telework and not spending so much $$$ on commercial real estate leases in big office buildings. All that to say that, as always, prices and demand will fall first in the outer burbs vs. The city and the inner burbs, but there’s always going to be people who prefer the exurbs for whatever reasons.
Anonymous
Post 08/14/2023 08:59     Subject: Feels like market is hitting a wall
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Only a month or two left before student loan repayments restart. I expect to see a bigger shift in the market once that happens. And if spring season is a dud next year, that could impact prices


The people buying million dollar houses aren't concerned about their student loan repayments.


Tell that to the new lawyer, doctor, or PE associate. They have the cash flow for a home, doesn’t mean they aren’t cornered about their student loan payment.
Anonymous
Post 08/14/2023 08:42     Subject: Feels like market is hitting a wall
Anonymous wrote:Only a month or two left before student loan repayments restart. I expect to see a bigger shift in the market once that happens. And if spring season is a dud next year, that could impact prices


The people buying million dollar houses aren't concerned about their student loan repayments.
Anonymous
Post 08/14/2023 08:41     Subject: Feels like market is hitting a wall
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:There's no inventory. People with 2-4 percent rates are not gonna sell and take on an 8 percent rate mortgage unless they absolutely have to, and the rates are scaring away potential first-time buyers (unless they are rich enough to pay cash). The market is essentially frozen.


Prices are starting to and continuing to go down. This will not be a fast process (and prices may go down only slightly in really nice areas) but it is happening. The national association of realtors has told buyers to get used to high interest rates and current prices and start buying (Yes they really did say this) but ignore them


Just because you say this (every August) doesn't mean it's true.
Anonymous
Post 08/14/2023 08:40     Subject: Feels like market is hitting a wall
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Someone posts this exact same thing every August.


This is different "slow" means low # of listings and low # of buyers what we are seeing now is lots of listings and not a lot of offers.


Oh really? We received five offers and took one that waived all contingencies and was able to close in two weeks (closing is today, btw). Is that your definition of slow?
Anonymous
Post 08/14/2023 08:33     Subject: Feels like market is hitting a wall
Anonymous wrote:There's no inventory. People with 2-4 percent rates are not gonna sell and take on an 8 percent rate mortgage unless they absolutely have to, and the rates are scaring away potential first-time buyers (unless they are rich enough to pay cash). The market is essentially frozen.


Prices are starting to and continuing to go down. This will not be a fast process (and prices may go down only slightly in really nice areas) but it is happening. The national association of realtors has told buyers to get used to high interest rates and current prices and start buying (Yes they really did say this) but ignore them
Anonymous
Post 08/14/2023 08:29     Subject: Feels like market is hitting a wall
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Yes I’m getting this vibe. I am not in the market and not paying that close attention. But I have noticed some houses sitting when 2 weeks ago (still the summer market), they went under contract right away.


Jesus, you guys make market predictions based on two-week time intervals?

This type of nonsense is why I think people should just generally buy a house whenever they think they need one and will be there for 5 to 10 years. To be clear, I do think houses are probably overpriced but really, no one knows — and vacillating every two weeks based on what you see in your neighborhood is likely to be counterproductive.


Yes people can "know" after observing trends. We don't have to take your orders just because "you think". This high price + high interest rate environment isn't just something we have to accept and taking about and anciticipating its end is not counterproductive. There is nothing nothing and I say again nothing you can do to make us stop taking. Oh did I forget to say there is nothing you can do?
Anonymous
Post 08/14/2023 07:58     Subject: Feels like market is hitting a wall
Anonymous wrote:Yes I’m getting this vibe. I am not in the market and not paying that close attention. But I have noticed some houses sitting when 2 weeks ago (still the summer market), they went under contract right away.


Jesus, you guys make market predictions based on two-week time intervals?

This type of nonsense is why I think people should just generally buy a house whenever they think they need one and will be there for 5 to 10 years. To be clear, I do think houses are probably overpriced but really, no one knows — and vacillating every two weeks based on what you see in your neighborhood is likely to be counterproductive.
Anonymous
Post 08/14/2023 07:50     Subject: Feels like market is hitting a wall
Only a month or two left before student loan repayments restart. I expect to see a bigger shift in the market once that happens. And if spring season is a dud next year, that could impact prices
Anonymous
Post 08/14/2023 07:49     Subject: Feels like market is hitting a wall
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:In my exurb, 600k houses are selling fast, 4-500k townhouses are mixed, and 7-800k houses are sitting. So There’s still a strong demand for a sweet spot, but outside of that stuff is sitting.


Nobody in their right mind would pay $800,000 to live in an exurb. Plenty of other options closer in at that price.


Yes, who in their right mind would pay for better schools, better roads, nicer parks, and safer neighborhoods?