Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Because the demand for slots from preferenced students (feeders + siblings + staff) exceeds the available seats in the more popular language tracks (chinese and spanish). They can't just shift all excess spots away from french, as they need a certain number of students in the french track to make class sizes and scheduling practical.
And they would not have known until the preferenced students accept or reject their offers whether they would have extra spots in Chinese and Spanish, so how could they have told you? In any case, you can tell by looking at the past numbers that you had a slim chance of getting in off the lottery even if they had a couple extra spots.

Chances for Chinese aren't that slim. Last year they made 23 5th grade offers to an initial waitlist of 59 kids. For 8th, 44 offers were made and only 48 kids were on the initial waitlist.

Same question as OP. Why not just have 20 open slots instead of zero slots with a default to waitlist? I thought that it might be explained by growth in feeder school cohort sizes (siblings?) but it looks like they've only needed to add a handful of preference slots each year.

I think because they want to keep the no-preference kids from matching until all siblings and preference kids have been admitted. So like if a kid at YY matched for 6th, then enrolled, that would trigger a preference for their sibling who didn't attend YY, the sibling would jump to the top of the Chinese no-preference list. Right?

I bet this is correct—I believe at least some of the Spanish feeders did not take all of their spots, so there would presumably be spots once they figure this out.

You can view it now. https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/aaron2446/viz/MSDCSeatsandWaitlistOfferData_draft/MSDCPublicDisplay

DCI-YY matched 52 out of 52 spots offered, with 2 kids waitlisted (not sure how that works-- maybe the weird sibling match rule?)

DCI-Stokes French matched 19 out of 20 spots offered, 0 on the waitlist. So I guess that opens a seat for a non-feeder French kid. Non-feeder French matched 30 out of 30 spots offered with 130 on the waitlist.

DCI-DCB matched 43/43 with 0 on the waitlist.
DCI-Stokes Spanish matched 16/19, so I guess 3 kids didn't list it or matched elsewhere. So that opens 3 seats for non-feeder kids.
DCI-LAMB matched 45 out of 46 seats offered, with 0 on the waitlist. So that's 1 seat left over.
DCI-Mundo matched 66/66, with 0 on the waitlist.

I'm not sure how they decide how many seats to offer, maybe it automatically sets to equal the number of applicants, the way the Early Action preschool seats do?

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Because the demand for slots from preferenced students (feeders + siblings + staff) exceeds the available seats in the more popular language tracks (chinese and spanish). They can't just shift all excess spots away from french, as they need a certain number of students in the french track to make class sizes and scheduling practical.
And they would not have known until the preferenced students accept or reject their offers whether they would have extra spots in Chinese and Spanish, so how could they have told you? In any case, you can tell by looking at the past numbers that you had a slim chance of getting in off the lottery even if they had a couple extra spots.

Chances for Chinese aren't that slim. Last year they made 23 5th grade offers to an initial waitlist of 59 kids. For 8th, 44 offers were made and only 48 kids were on the initial waitlist.

Same question as OP. Why not just have 20 open slots instead of zero slots with a default to waitlist? I thought that it might be explained by growth in feeder school cohort sizes (siblings?) but it looks like they've only needed to add a handful of preference slots each year.

I think because they want to keep the no-preference kids from matching until all siblings and preference kids have been admitted. So like if a kid at YY matched for 6th, then enrolled, that would trigger a preference for their sibling who didn't attend YY, the sibling would jump to the top of the Chinese no-preference list. Right?

I bet this is correct—I believe at least some of the Spanish feeders did not take all of their spots, so there would presumably be spots once they figure this out.

You can view it now. https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/aaron2446/viz/MSDCSeatsandWaitlistOfferData_draft/MSDCPublicDisplay

DCI-YY matched 52 out of 52 spots offered, with 2 kids waitlisted (not sure how that works-- maybe the weird sibling match rule?)

DCI-Stokes French matched 19 out of 20 spots offered, 0 on the waitlist. So I guess that opens a seat for a non-feeder French kid. Non-feeder French matched 30 out of 30 spots offered with 130 on the waitlist.

DCI-DCB matched 43/43 with 0 on the waitlist.
DCI-Stokes Spanish matched 16/19, so I guess 3 kids didn't list it or matched elsewhere. So that opens 3 seats for non-feeder kids.
DCI-LAMB matched 45 out of 46 seats offered, with 0 on the waitlist. So that's 1 seat left over.
DCI-Mundo matched 66/66, with 0 on the waitlist.

I'm not sure how they decide how many seats to offer, maybe it automatically sets to equal the number of applicants, the way the Early Action preschool seats do?

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Because the demand for slots from preferenced students (feeders + siblings + staff) exceeds the available seats in the more popular language tracks (chinese and spanish). They can't just shift all excess spots away from french, as they need a certain number of students in the french track to make class sizes and scheduling practical.
And they would not have known until the preferenced students accept or reject their offers whether they would have extra spots in Chinese and Spanish, so how could they have told you? In any case, you can tell by looking at the past numbers that you had a slim chance of getting in off the lottery even if they had a couple extra spots.

Chances for Chinese aren't that slim. Last year they made 23 5th grade offers to an initial waitlist of 59 kids. For 8th, 44 offers were made and only 48 kids were on the initial waitlist.

Same question as OP. Why not just have 20 open slots instead of zero slots with a default to waitlist? I thought that it might be explained by growth in feeder school cohort sizes (siblings?) but it looks like they've only needed to add a handful of preference slots each year.

I think because they want to keep the no-preference kids from matching until all siblings and preference kids have been admitted. So like if a kid at YY matched for 6th, then enrolled, that would trigger a preference for their sibling who didn't attend YY, the sibling would jump to the top of the Chinese no-preference list. Right?

I bet this is correct—I believe at least some of the Spanish feeders did not take all of their spots, so there would presumably be spots once they figure this out.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Looks like more YY kids are tracking to DCI.

The trend is clear. There will be no seats available to non-feeder kids in 1-2 years in any track. In 2 years, the class coming in from Stokes is the expansion class so there will be no more French either which is the only track with non-preference this year.

As PP said above, DCI has a very high retention rate and I don’t see that changing anytime soon. In fact, I predict that rate will increase.

DCI retention rate is > 90%

Because the choice for most feeder families is DCI or move/private. People take feeder school seats, and others backfill open upper elementary seats, to escape Brookland Middle or MacFarland. And as housing prices continue to rise, many more families will be scrambling for a seat that enables them to stay in their current EOTP house. Families in expansion grades that are banking on attrition "guaranteeing" them a DCI seat seem oblivious to this phenomenon.

Families in DCI feeders are not banking on attrition to get seats. The grades in the expansion years have 60% chance if all kids track to DCI. But some won’t so that chance goes up to 70-80%. That’s a hell of a lot better than 0% chance of their kids going to their IB middle school.

Families not in DCI feeders will have 0% chance of getting into DCI.

That’s a huge spread and anyone would take that 60-80% chance vs 0.

Now if DCI expands then it would be 100% for feeder kids. Although there are talks, that is not a definite.

You think all of those families will finish out fifth grade at their feeder and then leave for sixth grade elsewhere? Or leave in fifth for Latin or Basis? I have no idea what number of families would need to pull out between fifth and sixth to bump the odds up 20%, but I’m skeptical there are that many families that are IB for Deal and commuting to MV or Stokes every day…

Some of them will, it's hard to say how many. But I definitely know kids who are leaving YY and MV for Latin and Basis, or did last year. And I definitely know kids who go to YY but are IB for Deal or Hardy so they aren't too stressed about it either way.

Then those fifth grade seats will be filled by bilingual families who also struck out at Latin and Basis.

YY doesn't backfill for 5th. Never has.

Mundo could let more kids in, but they might run out of kids on the waitlist. They only had 6 5th grade matches and 2 kids waitlisted, so I'm not sure they would be able to backfill 5th even if they wanted to.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Because the demand for slots from preferenced students (feeders + siblings + staff) exceeds the available seats in the more popular language tracks (chinese and spanish). They can't just shift all excess spots away from french, as they need a certain number of students in the french track to make class sizes and scheduling practical.
And they would not have known until the preferenced students accept or reject their offers whether they would have extra spots in Chinese and Spanish, so how could they have told you? In any case, you can tell by looking at the past numbers that you had a slim chance of getting in off the lottery even if they had a couple extra spots.

Chances for Chinese aren't that slim. Last year they made 23 5th grade offers to an initial waitlist of 59 kids. For 8th, 44 offers were made and only 48 kids were on the initial waitlist.

Same question as OP. Why not just have 20 open slots instead of zero slots with a default to waitlist? I thought that it might be explained by growth in feeder school cohort sizes (siblings?) but it looks like they've only needed to add a handful of preference slots each year.

I think because they want to keep the no-preference kids from matching until all siblings and preference kids have been admitted. So like if a kid at YY matched for 6th, then enrolled, that would trigger a preference for their sibling who didn't attend YY, the sibling would jump to the top of the Chinese no-preference list. Right?

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Looks like more YY kids are tracking to DCI.

The trend is clear. There will be no seats available to non-feeder kids in 1-2 years in any track. In 2 years, the class coming in from Stokes is the expansion class so there will be no more French either which is the only track with non-preference this year.

As PP said above, DCI has a very high retention rate and I don’t see that changing anytime soon. In fact, I predict that rate will increase.

DCI retention rate is > 90%

Because the choice for most feeder families is DCI or move/private. People take feeder school seats, and others backfill open upper elementary seats, to escape Brookland Middle or MacFarland. And as housing prices continue to rise, many more families will be scrambling for a seat that enables them to stay in their current EOTP house. Families in expansion grades that are banking on attrition "guaranteeing" them a DCI seat seem oblivious to this phenomenon.

Families in DCI feeders are not banking on attrition to get seats. The grades in the expansion years have 60% chance if all kids track to DCI. But some won’t so that chance goes up to 70-80%. That’s a hell of a lot better than 0% chance of their kids going to their IB middle school.

Families not in DCI feeders will have 0% chance of getting into DCI.

That’s a huge spread and anyone would take that 60-80% chance vs 0.

Now if DCI expands then it would be 100% for feeder kids. Although there are talks, that is not a definite.

You think all of those families will finish out fifth grade at their feeder and then leave for sixth grade elsewhere? Or leave in fifth for Latin or Basis? I have no idea what number of families would need to pull out between fifth and sixth to bump the odds up 20%, but I’m skeptical there are that many families that are IB for Deal and commuting to MV or Stokes every day…

Some of them will, it's hard to say how many. But I definitely know kids who are leaving YY and MV for Latin and Basis, or did last year. And I definitely know kids who go to YY but are IB for Deal or Hardy so they aren't too stressed about it either way.

Then those fifth grade seats will be filled by bilingual families who also struck out at Latin and Basis.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Looks like more YY kids are tracking to DCI.

The trend is clear. There will be no seats available to non-feeder kids in 1-2 years in any track. In 2 years, the class coming in from Stokes is the expansion class so there will be no more French either which is the only track with non-preference this year.

As PP said above, DCI has a very high retention rate and I don’t see that changing anytime soon. In fact, I predict that rate will increase.

DCI retention rate is > 90%

Because the choice for most feeder families is DCI or move/private. People take feeder school seats, and others backfill open upper elementary seats, to escape Brookland Middle or MacFarland. And as housing prices continue to rise, many more families will be scrambling for a seat that enables them to stay in their current EOTP house. Families in expansion grades that are banking on attrition "guaranteeing" them a DCI seat seem oblivious to this phenomenon.

Families in DCI feeders are not banking on attrition to get seats. The grades in the expansion years have 60% chance if all kids track to DCI. But some won’t so that chance goes up to 70-80%. That’s a hell of a lot better than 0% chance of their kids going to their IB middle school.

Families not in DCI feeders will have 0% chance of getting into DCI.

That’s a huge spread and anyone would take that 60-80% chance vs 0.

Now if DCI expands then it would be 100% for feeder kids. Although there are talks, that is not a definite.

We actually didn’t take those odds and there are many of us at our DCPS that made the same choice.

Then good luck to you because middle school seats are the most competitive in the city. I would plan on moving.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Looks like more YY kids are tracking to DCI.

The trend is clear. There will be no seats available to non-feeder kids in 1-2 years in any track. In 2 years, the class coming in from Stokes is the expansion class so there will be no more French either which is the only track with non-preference this year.

As PP said above, DCI has a very high retention rate and I don’t see that changing anytime soon. In fact, I predict that rate will increase.

DCI retention rate is > 90%

Because the choice for most feeder families is DCI or move/private. People take feeder school seats, and others backfill open upper elementary seats, to escape Brookland Middle or MacFarland. And as housing prices continue to rise, many more families will be scrambling for a seat that enables them to stay in their current EOTP house. Families in expansion grades that are banking on attrition "guaranteeing" them a DCI seat seem oblivious to this phenomenon.

Families in DCI feeders are not banking on attrition to get seats. The grades in the expansion years have 60% chance if all kids track to DCI. But some won’t so that chance goes up to 70-80%. That’s a hell of a lot better than 0% chance of their kids going to their IB middle school.

Families not in DCI feeders will have 0% chance of getting into DCI.

That’s a huge spread and anyone would take that 60-80% chance vs 0.

Now if DCI expands then it would be 100% for feeder kids. Although there are talks, that is not a definite.

You think all of those families will finish out fifth grade at their feeder and then leave for sixth grade elsewhere? Or leave in fifth for Latin or Basis? I have no idea what number of families would need to pull out between fifth and sixth to bump the odds up 20%, but I’m skeptical there are that many families that are IB for Deal and commuting to MV or Stokes every day…

Some of them will, it's hard to say how many. But I definitely know kids who are leaving YY and MV for Latin and Basis, or did last year. And I definitely know kids who go to YY but are IB for Deal or Hardy so they aren't too stressed about it either way.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Looks like more YY kids are tracking to DCI.

The trend is clear. There will be no seats available to non-feeder kids in 1-2 years in any track. In 2 years, the class coming in from Stokes is the expansion class so there will be no more French either which is the only track with non-preference this year.

As PP said above, DCI has a very high retention rate and I don’t see that changing anytime soon. In fact, I predict that rate will increase.

DCI retention rate is > 90%

Because the choice for most feeder families is DCI or move/private. People take feeder school seats, and others backfill open upper elementary seats, to escape Brookland Middle or MacFarland. And as housing prices continue to rise, many more families will be scrambling for a seat that enables them to stay in their current EOTP house. Families in expansion grades that are banking on attrition "guaranteeing" them a DCI seat seem oblivious to this phenomenon.

Families in DCI feeders are not banking on attrition to get seats. The grades in the expansion years have 60% chance if all kids track to DCI. But some won’t so that chance goes up to 70-80%. That’s a hell of a lot better than 0% chance of their kids going to their IB middle school.

Families not in DCI feeders will have 0% chance of getting into DCI.

That’s a huge spread and anyone would take that 60-80% chance vs 0.

Now if DCI expands then it would be 100% for feeder kids. Although there are talks, that is not a definite.

You think all of those families will finish out fifth grade at their feeder and then leave for sixth grade elsewhere? Or leave in fifth for Latin or Basis? I have no idea what number of families would need to pull out between fifth and sixth to bump the odds up 20%, but I’m skeptical there are that many families that are IB for Deal and commuting to MV or Stokes every day…

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Looks like more YY kids are tracking to DCI.

The trend is clear. There will be no seats available to non-feeder kids in 1-2 years in any track. In 2 years, the class coming in from Stokes is the expansion class so there will be no more French either which is the only track with non-preference this year.

As PP said above, DCI has a very high retention rate and I don’t see that changing anytime soon. In fact, I predict that rate will increase.

DCI retention rate is > 90%

Because the choice for most feeder families is DCI or move/private. People take feeder school seats, and others backfill open upper elementary seats, to escape Brookland Middle or MacFarland. And as housing prices continue to rise, many more families will be scrambling for a seat that enables them to stay in their current EOTP house. Families in expansion grades that are banking on attrition "guaranteeing" them a DCI seat seem oblivious to this phenomenon.

Families in DCI feeders are not banking on attrition to get seats. The grades in the expansion years have 60% chance if all kids track to DCI. But some won’t so that chance goes up to 70-80%. That’s a hell of a lot better than 0% chance of their kids going to their IB middle school.

Families not in DCI feeders will have 0% chance of getting into DCI.

That’s a huge spread and anyone would take that 60-80% chance vs 0.

Now if DCI expands then it would be 100% for feeder kids. Although there are talks, that is not a definite.

We actually didn’t take those odds and there are many of us at our DCPS that made the same choice.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Looks like more YY kids are tracking to DCI.

The trend is clear. There will be no seats available to non-feeder kids in 1-2 years in any track. In 2 years, the class coming in from Stokes is the expansion class so there will be no more French either which is the only track with non-preference this year.

As PP said above, DCI has a very high retention rate and I don’t see that changing anytime soon. In fact, I predict that rate will increase.

DCI retention rate is > 90%

Because the choice for most feeder families is DCI or move/private. People take feeder school seats, and others backfill open upper elementary seats, to escape Brookland Middle or MacFarland. And as housing prices continue to rise, many more families will be scrambling for a seat that enables them to stay in their current EOTP house. Families in expansion grades that are banking on attrition "guaranteeing" them a DCI seat seem oblivious to this phenomenon.

Families in DCI feeders are not banking on attrition to get seats. The grades in the expansion years have 60% chance if all kids track to DCI. But some won’t so that chance goes up to 70-80%. That’s a hell of a lot better than 0% chance of their kids going to their IB middle school.

Families not in DCI feeders will have 0% chance of getting into DCI.

That’s a huge spread and anyone would take that 60-80% chance vs 0.

Now if DCI expands then it would be 100% for feeder kids. Although there are talks, that is not a definite.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Looks like more YY kids are tracking to DCI.

The trend is clear. There will be no seats available to non-feeder kids in 1-2 years in any track. In 2 years, the class coming in from Stokes is the expansion class so there will be no more French either which is the only track with non-preference this year.

As PP said above, DCI has a very high retention rate and I don’t see that changing anytime soon. In fact, I predict that rate will increase.

DCI retention rate is > 90%

Because the choice for most feeder families is DCI or move/private. People take feeder school seats, and others backfill open upper elementary seats, to escape Brookland Middle or MacFarland. And as housing prices continue to rise, many more families will be scrambling for a seat that enables them to stay in their current EOTP house. Families in expansion grades that are banking on attrition "guaranteeing" them a DCI seat seem oblivious to this phenomenon.

Families in DCI feeders are not banking on attrition to get seats. The grades in the expansion years have 60% chance if all kids track to DCI. But some won’t so that chance goes up to 70-80%. That’s a hell of a lot better than 0% chance of their kids going to their IB middle school.

Families not in DCI feeders will have 0% chance of getting into DCI.

That’s a huge spread and anyone would take that 60-80% chance vs 0.

Now if DCI expands then it would be 100% for feeder kids. Although there are talks, that is not a definite.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Looks like more YY kids are tracking to DCI.

The trend is clear. There will be no seats available to non-feeder kids in 1-2 years in any track. In 2 years, the class coming in from Stokes is the expansion class so there will be no more French either which is the only track with non-preference this year.

As PP said above, DCI has a very high retention rate and I don’t see that changing anytime soon. In fact, I predict that rate will increase.

DCI retention rate is > 90%

Because the choice for most feeder families is DCI or move/private. People take feeder school seats, and others backfill open upper elementary seats, to escape Brookland Middle or MacFarland. And as housing prices continue to rise, many more families will be scrambling for a seat that enables them to stay in their current EOTP house. Families in expansion grades that are banking on attrition "guaranteeing" them a DCI seat seem oblivious to this phenomenon.

Families in DCI feeders are not banking on attrition to get seats. The grades in the expansion years have 60% chance if all kids track to DCI. But some won’t so that chance goes up to 70-80%. That’s a hell of a lot better than 0% chance of their kids going to their IB middle school.

Families not in DCI feeders will have 0% chance of getting into DCI.

That’s a huge spread and anyone would take that 60-80% chance vs 0.

Now if DCI expands then it would be 100% for feeder kids. Although there are talks, that is not a definite.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Looks like more YY kids are tracking to DCI.

The trend is clear. There will be no seats available to non-feeder kids in 1-2 years in any track. In 2 years, the class coming in from Stokes is the expansion class so there will be no more French either which is the only track with non-preference this year.

As PP said above, DCI has a very high retention rate and I don’t see that changing anytime soon. In fact, I predict that rate will increase.

DCI retention rate is > 90%

Because the choice for most feeder families is DCI or move/private. People take feeder school seats, and others backfill open upper elementary seats, to escape Brookland Middle or MacFarland. And as housing prices continue to rise, many more families will be scrambling for a seat that enables them to stay in their current EOTP house. Families in expansion grades that are banking on attrition "guaranteeing" them a DCI seat seem oblivious to this phenomenon.