Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I started following UrbanBaby (now defunct NYC version of DCUM) 12 years ago and EVERY year the college admissions posts referenced a “bloodbath.” Test optional has obviously changed the process and increased numbers of applicants, but really it hasn’t changed all that much

Acceptance rates are literally half what they were just 2 years ago, and the number of urm, and first Gen has doubled. Even if you believe in those institutional priorities (which I do), that’s a substantial decline in the number of slots available for white and Asian umc students.

Those acceptance rates two years ago, were half of what acceptance rates were four years ago. And so on.

College enrollments peaked in 2010 at 18m undergrads and dropped to 16m undergrads in 2020. What those acceptance rates just mean is that kids are applying to more places. But there are fewer kids applying each year, so things are actually “getting better” over time.

Exactly. Acceptance rates are a stupid way to consider if college admissions are getting harder.
It's easier to apply to more schools now, so there are more applicants per school, so there are more rejections per school. But that doesn't mean there are more qualified applicants or that Larlo's chances have changed that much. If the bottom 1/3 of kids applying to each school never would have applied to them in the past, it really has no bearing on the chances of the top 1/3 of the kids who applied. It's still a crap-shoot, but it's only a crap-shoot among the qualified applicants.

You still don’t get it. Test optional changed how colleges defined qualified. The last two years really have been completely different than what came before.

Eh well, if it means the unqualified are getting in, then in two years or so we will see big drops in the graduation rate as the unqualified drop out or flunk out.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I started following UrbanBaby (now defunct NYC version of DCUM) 12 years ago and EVERY year the college admissions posts referenced a “bloodbath.” Test optional has obviously changed the process and increased numbers of applicants, but really it hasn’t changed all that much

Acceptance rates are literally half what they were just 2 years ago, and the number of urm, and first Gen has doubled. Even if you believe in those institutional priorities (which I do), that’s a substantial decline in the number of slots available for white and Asian umc students.

Those acceptance rates two years ago, were half of what acceptance rates were four years ago. And so on.

College enrollments peaked in 2010 at 18m undergrads and dropped to 16m undergrads in 2020. What those acceptance rates just mean is that kids are applying to more places. But there are fewer kids applying each year, so things are actually “getting better” over time.

Exactly. Acceptance rates are a stupid way to consider if college admissions are getting harder.
It's easier to apply to more schools now, so there are more applicants per school, so there are more rejections per school. But that doesn't mean there are more qualified applicants or that Larlo's chances have changed that much. If the bottom 1/3 of kids applying to each school never would have applied to them in the past, it really has no bearing on the chances of the top 1/3 of the kids who applied. It's still a crap-shoot, but it's only a crap-shoot among the qualified applicants.

You still don’t get it. Test optional changed how colleges defined qualified. The last two years really have been completely different than what came before.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I started following UrbanBaby (now defunct NYC version of DCUM) 12 years ago and EVERY year the college admissions posts referenced a “bloodbath.” Test optional has obviously changed the process and increased numbers of applicants, but really it hasn’t changed all that much

Acceptance rates are literally half what they were just 2 years ago, and the number of urm, and first Gen has doubled. Even if you believe in those institutional priorities (which I do), that’s a substantial decline in the number of slots available for white and Asian umc students.

Those acceptance rates two years ago, were half of what acceptance rates were four years ago. And so on.

College enrollments peaked in 2010 at 18m undergrads and dropped to 16m undergrads in 2020. What those acceptance rates just mean is that kids are applying to more places. But there are fewer kids applying each year, so things are actually “getting better” over time.

Exactly. Acceptance rates are a stupid way to consider if college admissions are getting harder.
It's easier to apply to more schools now, so there are more applicants per school, so there are more rejections per school. But that doesn't mean there are more qualified applicants or that Larlo's chances have changed that much. If the bottom 1/3 of kids applying to each school never would have applied to them in the past, it really has no bearing on the chances of the top 1/3 of the kids who applied. It's still a crap-shoot, but it's only a crap-shoot among the qualified applicants.

Here’s the percentage increases this year for applicants. https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaeltnietzel/2023/03/30/college-applications-are-up-dramatically-in-2023/

Harvard class of 2023 was 22% black, Latino and Native American

Harvard class of 2028 was 28%.

You have an odd definition of “doubled

Look at FGLI. It’s such a focus now that most selective colleges include this number in their admissions announcements. It’s a huge hook and numbers have doubled.

However it compares to prior years, my advice is to treat the process as pretty rough and head in with expectations set, plan as solid as can be, very balanced realistic list, and all of that....

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I started following UrbanBaby (now defunct NYC version of DCUM) 12 years ago and EVERY year the college admissions posts referenced a “bloodbath.” Test optional has obviously changed the process and increased numbers of applicants, but really it hasn’t changed all that much

Acceptance rates are literally half what they were just 2 years ago, and the number of urm, and first Gen has doubled. Even if you believe in those institutional priorities (which I do), that’s a substantial decline in the number of slots available for white and Asian umc students.

Agree w/ the first, not the 2nd. If doubled, it's not in the last 2 years and wasn't much to begin with. My D's fresher class at Ivy is very white/Asian overall. Some diversity w/ URM but not anything approaching parity.

There are just more kids applying for the same spots. Some of it is growth in # of applicants and some kids applying to more schools. I read it should get better in a few years when recession babies are applying.

More people are also applying to the same 50 or so universities.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I started following UrbanBaby (now defunct NYC version of DCUM) 12 years ago and EVERY year the college admissions posts referenced a “bloodbath.” Test optional has obviously changed the process and increased numbers of applicants, but really it hasn’t changed all that much

Acceptance rates are literally half what they were just 2 years ago, and the number of urm, and first Gen has doubled. Even if you believe in those institutional priorities (which I do), that’s a substantial decline in the number of slots available for white and Asian umc students.

This is made up, though. Due to TO, more kids apply. That doesn't mean they are qualified to attend. They get rejected and the acceptance rate goes down. The acceptance rate means nothing.

The first page of this essay explains why thing were pretty predictable in terms of admissions from the 1970s to the turn of the century. I'd add that USNWR's rise and the influx of international apps has contributed heavily to increasing unpredictability, too.

https://lesshighschoolstress.com/

I am a believer that test optional screwed things up for high stats kids. Colleges that those with a 1250 never would have applied to, suddenly has an extra 10,000-30,000 apply to them that they would never have had before, the kids just didn't submit test scores.

Not saying the 1250 kids aren't qualified for top 20 schools, but they took up half the slots that usually went to all around high stats kids (high GPA AND high test scores).

2021

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I started following UrbanBaby (now defunct NYC version of DCUM) 12 years ago and EVERY year the college admissions posts referenced a “bloodbath.” Test optional has obviously changed the process and increased numbers of applicants, but really it hasn’t changed all that much

Acceptance rates are literally half what they were just 2 years ago, and the number of urm, and first Gen has doubled. Even if you believe in those institutional priorities (which I do), that’s a substantial decline in the number of slots available for white and Asian umc students.

Those acceptance rates two years ago, were half of what acceptance rates were four years ago. And so on.

College enrollments peaked in 2010 at 18m undergrads and dropped to 16m undergrads in 2020. What those acceptance rates just mean is that kids are applying to more places. But there are fewer kids applying each year, so things are actually “getting better” over time.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I started following UrbanBaby (now defunct NYC version of DCUM) 12 years ago and EVERY year the college admissions posts referenced a “bloodbath.” Test optional has obviously changed the process and increased numbers of applicants, but really it hasn’t changed all that much

Acceptance rates are literally half what they were just 2 years ago, and the number of urm, and first Gen has doubled. Even if you believe in those institutional priorities (which I do), that’s a substantial decline in the number of slots available for white and Asian umc students.

This. Things have changed.

Harvard class of 2023 was 22% black, Latino and Native American

Harvard class of 2028 was 28%.

You have an odd definition of “doubled”

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Actually, 2020 was easier. Yes it felt more uncertain, but there were much greater admissions rates due to 1) internationals assumed not coming 2) more kids taking gap years assumed. So it turned into a waitlist and regular decision windfall for kids getting admitted to high reaches

Well no, RD certainly not impacted. Those decisions almost all released by time everything shut down and nobody knew what was happening in fall until many months into the pandemic.

Regardless, most colleges took hundreds off the waitlist that year,

As a parent of a class of 2020 high school grad, I agree with this. Yes, college admissions were pretty much complete by the time the world shut down on March 13, 2020. My DC was at a DC private with a pretty small graduating class. Starting in mid-April, wait list acceptances started pouring in. My DC got off WL around the third week of April from the top 20 that was their dream school (now a current Junior there). At least one third of DC's graduating class ended up taking a gap year. So many classmates got into top 25 schools off the wait list by June as it became very clear that international students were not going to be able to attend, and that so many were taking gap years.

I like to say, it was the best of times and the worst of times for the Class of 2020. Best: my DC got into their dream school. Worst: entire first year was remote and entire campus shut down - nobody allowed on campus. So first year was lost and we had to pay full tuition. But I don't think DC would've been accepted if it hadn't been for Covid.

Bottom line - I think Class of 2020 got a boost in admissions from a year that saw robust wait list movement. But they lost out in the end of their senior year and first year of college.