Anonymous wrote:Adding mine (NP, also for 5th):

Latin 2nd
Latin Cooper
Inspired Teaching

Anonymous wrote:5th
Latin Main
Latin Cooper
Basis

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:5th
Latin Main
Latin Cooper
Basis

I have no idea if this is humor, but my lord that's funny. This is every 5th lottery list, save for order.

The point of the thread is to prognosticate. Not to come up with a unique list. Either let the PP know what your prediction is or move along.

Dumb response from someone who apparently knows nothing about the lottery. There's no prognosticating on a list with those three schools.

Anonymous wrote:2nd grade w/equitable access preference

Inspired Teaching Demonstration PCS
Creative Minds International PCS
School-Within-School
Two Rivers PCS at 4th Street
Ludlow-Taylor Elementary School
Capitol Hill Montessori
Lee Montessori PCS - Brookland

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:5th
Latin Main
Latin Cooper
Basis

I have no idea if this is humor, but my lord that's funny. This is every 5th lottery list, save for order.

The point of the thread is to prognosticate. Not to come up with a unique list. Either let the PP know what your prediction is or move along.

Anonymous wrote:2nd grade w/equitable access preference

Inspired Teaching Demonstration PCS
Creative Minds International PCS
School-Within-School
Two Rivers PCS at 4th Street
Ludlow-Taylor Elementary School
Capitol Hill Montessori
Lee Montessori PCS - Brookland

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:5th
Latin Main
Latin Cooper
Basis

I have no idea if this is humor, but my lord that's funny. This is every 5th lottery list, save for order.

Anonymous wrote:5th
Latin Main
Latin Cooper
Basis

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Okay, how about this one. Odds of eventually getting into any Deal feeder for 2nd-5th grade. One kid, no preferences.

In the classic conundrum where we don’t want to leave our current elementary school, but are worried about waiting too long and not jumping for the pathway when we have the chance.

Also happy to hear about any upcoming renovation plans that could open up spots in the next few years. Would consider Hardy feeders, but really not enthused about doing that cross town commute longer than absolutely necessary.

Okay, so I am the Lottery Fortune Teller, and I actually did the math on this.

Taking the average of the changes of getting in over the past four years, taking into account that you have no preference, here are the odds:

Janney: 2nd - 1%, 3rd - 0%, 4th - 0%, 5th - 1%. Chances if you try all four years: 2%
Murch: 2nd - 5%, 3rd - 0%, 4th - 0%, 5th - 1%. Chances if you try all four years: 6%
Lafayette: 2nd - 5%, 3rd - 4%, 4th - 5%, 5th - 17%. Chances if you try all four years: 28%
Bancroft: 2nd - 0%, 3rd - 0%, 4th - 5%, 5th - 28%. Chances if you try all four years: 32%
Hearst: 2nd - 13%, 3rd - 9%, 4th - 1%, 5th - 3%. Chances if you try all four years: 32%
Shepherd: 2nd - 17%, 3rd - 17%, 4th - 16%, 5th - 19%. Chances if you try all four years: 53%

Which means if you try all six schools, all four years, your overall chances of getting into one are: 86%

Not bad odds at all!

Couple of notes - a lot of these percentages are driven by one good year. Ex: Bancroft in 2020-2021 offered 15 kids in off the waitlist for fifth grade. Hearst offered 25 kids a spot off the waitlist for 2nd grade in 2021-2022. So there's a TON of variety here, year to year and grade to grade.

Also - if you really, really want this - you HAVE to be willing to move your kid in September. A lot of these numbers are clearly driven by a single seat being offered to a ton of kids after school had already started. If you're unwilling to move your kid after school starts, your chances drop significantly. I didn't do the math, but I'd guess they go from mid 80s down to less than half.

That was fun!

The problem with your approach is that is assumes independent chance for each school for each year. The reality is that your chance in any given year is the same (or highly correlated). For example, if your number stinks and you have no chance of matching at Janney, you are also not getting into Murch.

Love seeing these numbers, but one has to think numbers from the last four years were skewed by the pandemic, when more parents were moving away or moving their kids to privates because DCPS was comparatively slow to reopen its school buildings. At least at our school (which is on your list), that has slowed to a trickle.

Anonymous wrote:What about a swami for 5th grade lottery entries?
Though truthfully, I'm probably more nervous about what the new school would be like for my kid/for my family than I am about not getting a seat!